The 2018 Inferno Collection ×4+The Lake Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FT 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested
Inputs
Nitro
4x $0.16
Night Ops
1x $0.06
Cyanospatter
1x $0.07
Mudder
3x $0.08
Safari Mesh
1x $0.20
↓
Possible Outputs
Converter
10.0% $3.69
Hand Brake
10.0% $2.00
Check Engine
10.0% $1.98
Brake Light
10.0% $1.73
Anodized Navy
20.0% $1.02
Night Ops
20.0% $0.61
Max Win
$3.69 (+135.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$1.36 (-13.4%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+61.5%
Cost
$1.57
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.57
Ask Price EV $1.36 (-13.4%)
Bid Price EV $1.28 (-18.3%)
Ask Profit $-0.21 (-13.4%)
Bid Profit $-0.29 (-18.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.08 (+4.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.21
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.29
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $3.69 (+135.2%)
Worst Case $0.46 (-70.5%)
Volatility +61.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$0.78
Avg Loss -$0.87
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.46 (-70.5%)
Std Dev $0.97
Avg Norm Float 0.1740
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 120h 1m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Night Ops
—
Field-Tested
$0.06 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Cyanospatter
—
Field-Tested
$0.07 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Field-Tested
$0.08 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Field-Tested
$0.09 Float: HIDDEN
AWP | Safari Mesh
—
Field-Tested
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Mudder
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 00M 58S //TOTAL COST $1.57 //ASK PRICE EV $1.36 //BID PRICE EV $1.28 //ASK PROFIT $-0.21 (-13.4%) //BID PROFIT $-0.29 (-18.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $3.69 //VOLATILITY +61.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$3.69
+$2.12
+135.2%
$3.60
+$2.03
+129.3%
$0.09
2.5%
—
WIN
10.0%
$2.00
+$0.43
+27.6%
$1.75
+$0.18
+11.5%
$0.25
12.7%
—
WIN
10.0%
$1.98
+$0.41
+25.9%
$1.90
+$0.33
+21.0%
$0.08
3.9%
—
SMALL WIN
10.0%
$1.73
+$0.16
+10.2%
$1.68
+$0.11
+7.0%
$0.05
2.9%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$1.02
-$0.55
-35.2%
$0.99
-$0.58
-36.9%
$0.03
2.7%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$0.61
-$0.96
-60.9%
$0.58
-$0.99
-63.1%
$0.03
5.5%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$0.46
-$1.11
-70.5%
$0.38
-$1.19
-75.8%
$0.08
18.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-lake|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.104412,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f9a94b857e5d",
"realistic_value": 0.4635,
"optimistic_value": 0.46,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 0.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Teardown (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:21:48.463908Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f9a94b857e5d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.013921600000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9556d6c4e652",
"realistic_value": 1.0175,
"optimistic_value": 1,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 0.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:31:11.503770Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9556d6c4e652.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.19999999999999998,
"output_float": 0.104412,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3e384969772a",
"realistic_value": 0.6134999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.61,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Night Ops",
"conservative_value": 0.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Lake Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Night Ops (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:22:35.016965Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3e384969772a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.069608,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff8258cd7dac",
"realistic_value": 3.693,
"optimistic_value": 3.63,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Converter",
"conservative_value": 3.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Converter (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:17.009876Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff8258cd7dac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.17402,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c0a577a1a5b2",
"realistic_value": 2.0035,
"optimistic_value": 2,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake",
"conservative_value": 1.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T10:35:49.779017Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0a577a1a5b2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.013921600000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1e77412769d",
"realistic_value": 1.7305,
"optimistic_value": 1.72,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light",
"conservative_value": 1.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:13.542685Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1e77412769d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.104412,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a2c7bfcb6607",
"realistic_value": 1.9769999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.97,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Check Engine",
"conservative_value": 1.9,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Check Engine (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:26.789249Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a2c7bfcb6607.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_07be32d474698b821cf39ec5",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "492724643507456409",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:25:04.286935Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "502857742726643356",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:25:04.286935Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "507360492287840917",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:25:04.286935Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "508486392214402502",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Field-Tested)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:25:04.286935Z"
},
{
"price": 0.06,
"skin_id": "skin-1cae9ba1aa38",
"listing_id": "519746022667799828",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Night Ops (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Night Ops",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1cae9ba1aa38.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:17:45.172857Z"
},
{
"price": 0.07,
"skin_id": "skin-3cb4d80d3243",
"listing_id": "492724590627153825",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | Cyanospatter",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3cb4d80d3243.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:53.869646Z"
},
{
"price": 0.08,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "512989991912631707",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:23:12.653705Z"
},
{
"price": 0.09,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "500605942755441071",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:23:12.653705Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-8d7feec0f6e3",
"listing_id": "497228243055130157",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)",
"name": "AWP | Safari Mesh",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d7feec0f6e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:55.336783Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-4785ea4beb4c",
"listing_id": "491598743580381806",
"collection_id": "collection-set-lake",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Mudder",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4785ea4beb4c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:44.299982Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-inferno-2:4+collection-set-lake:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×4+The Lake Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 20.0% $7.22 Check Engine 10.0% $3.75 Converter 10.0% $3.69 Hand Brake 10.0% $2.79 Brake Light 10.0% $1.73 Teardown 20.0% $1.65 | $7.22 +164.4% | $3.17 +16.2% | 50.0% | +73.4% | $2.73 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×5+The Lake Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 16.7% $7.22 Check Engine 12.5% $3.75 Converter 12.5% $3.69 Hand Brake 12.5% $2.79 Brake Light 12.5% $1.73 Teardown 16.7% $1.65 | $7.22 +169.3% | $3.14 +17.3% | 54.2% | +69.7% | $2.68 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×7+The Lake Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Night Ops 10.0% $7.22 Check Engine 17.5% $3.75 Converter 17.5% $3.72 Hand Brake 17.5% $2.79 Brake Light 17.5% $1.73 Teardown 10.0% $1.65 | $7.22 +163.4% | $3.09 +12.6% | 62.5% | +56.5% | $2.74 | — |