The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested StatTrak™
Inputs
Lifted Spirits
2x $0.14
Ensnared
1x $0.15
Scrawl
1x $0.23
Poultrygeist
1x $0.29
RMX
2x $0.34
Bock Blocks
3x $0.40
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
10.0% $10.69
Firebreathing
10.0% $6.12
Galigator
10.0% $3.56
Urban Sovereign
10.0% $3.01
Amberline
10.0% $2.89
Night Terror
10.0% $2.66
Max Win
$10.69 (+258.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.38 (+13.3%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+95.8%
Cost
$2.98
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $2.98
Ask Price EV $3.38 (+13.3%)
Bid Price EV $2.85 (-4.4%)
Ask Profit $0.40 (+13.3%)
Bid Profit $-0.13 (-4.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.53 (+17.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.40
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.13
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $10.69 (+258.8%)
Worst Case $0.87 (-70.8%)
Volatility +95.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$2.87
Avg Loss -$1.25
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.87 (-70.8%)
Std Dev $2.85
Avg Norm Float 0.2564
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 147h 13m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Scrawl
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Well-Worn
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Well-Worn
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 36M 29S //TOTAL COST $2.98 //ASK PRICE EV $3.38 //BID PRICE EV $2.85 //ASK PROFIT $0.40 (+13.3%) //BID PROFIT $-0.13 (-4.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $10.69 //VOLATILITY +95.8% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
10.0%
$10.69
+$7.71
+258.8%
$9.15
+$6.17
+207.0%
$1.54
14.4%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$6.12
+$3.14
+105.3%
$4.98
+$2.00
+67.1%
$1.14
18.6%
—
PAPER WIN THIN BID
10.0%
$3.56
+$0.58
+19.6%
$2.64
-$0.34
-11.4%
$0.92
25.9%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$3.01
+$0.03
+1.1%
$2.57
-$0.41
-13.8%
$0.44
14.7%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$2.89
-$0.09
-3.0%
$2.61
-$0.37
-12.4%
$0.28
9.7%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$2.66
-$0.32
-10.9%
$2.39
-$0.59
-19.8%
$0.26
10.0%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.87
-$1.11
-37.2%
$1.54
-$1.44
-48.3%
$0.33
17.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.21
-$1.77
-59.4%
$1.00
-$1.98
-66.4%
$0.21
17.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.87
-$2.11
-70.7%
$0.80
-$2.18
-73.2%
$0.07
8.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.87
-$2.11
-70.8%
$0.80
-$2.18
-73.2%
$0.07
8.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.25636,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 6.117,
"optimistic_value": 6.11,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 4.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.545500Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.25636,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 0.8734999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.87,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 0.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:25:18.398494Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.25636,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 3.5645000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 3.47,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:39:26.209442Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.25636,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 10.693000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 10.63,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 9.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:48.376233Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.17945199999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 2.655,
"optimistic_value": 2.55,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 2.39,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:20:08.010392Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.25636,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 2.89,
"optimistic_value": 2.89,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 2.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:42.661875Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.25636,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 3.012,
"optimistic_value": 2.9,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 2.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:39.043864Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1717612,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 0.87,
"optimistic_value": 0.87,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 0.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:46:52.710373Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1948336,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 1.87,
"optimistic_value": 1.87,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 1.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:48.305797Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.12818,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 1.21,
"optimistic_value": 1.21,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:14:00.575678Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0716786f7a54ef1388a255f6",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "526501587738250313",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:20:36.712158Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "502857689863173904",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:23:32.747998Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "497228190142419437",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:20:36.712158Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-ee6dee51b1f5",
"listing_id": "507361289451954337",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scrawl (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Scrawl",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ee6dee51b1f5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:23:38.905744Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-2c6b935bb4eb",
"listing_id": "509612292204674439",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c6b935bb4eb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:12:12.839875Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "500605889842156475",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Well-Worn)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:27:52.186514Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "526501587737943665",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | RMX (Well-Worn)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:27:52.186514Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "512990789045645879",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:07.009282Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "490472790738106599",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:07.009282Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "506235389470161876",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:07.009282Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-30:5+collection-set-community-37:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 10.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 10.0% $10.78 Amberline 10.0% $6.40 Galigator 10.0% $5.67 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $4.72 Night Terror 10.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +272.2% | $5.65 +24.1% | 50.0% | +87.2% | $4.55 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 10.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 10.0% $31.66 Amberline 10.0% $18.87 Galigator 10.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $13.85 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +292.9% | $15.95 +22.3% | 50.0% | +95.2% | $13.05 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $13.85 Ticket to Hell 2.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +169.4% | $24.01 +26.2% | 36.0% | +72.0% | $19.03 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 Galigator 14.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $13.85 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +219.9% | $19.99 +24.7% | 42.0% | +81.7% | $16.03 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 12.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 12.0% $31.66 Amberline 12.0% $18.87 Galigator 12.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $13.85 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +255.3% | $17.96 +24.4% | 48.0% | +88.8% | $14.43 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 16.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 16.0% $31.66 Amberline 16.0% $18.87 Galigator 16.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $13.85 Ticket to Hell 4.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +188.9% | $22.00 +23.9% | 48.0% | +75.3% | $17.75 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 8.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 8.0% $10.78 Amberline 8.0% $6.42 Galigator 8.0% $5.67 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $4.72 Night Terror 12.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +316.1% | $4.99 +22.6% | 52.0% | +93.2% | $4.07 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 6.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 6.0% $10.78 Amberline 6.0% $6.42 Galigator 6.0% $5.67 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $4.72 Night Terror 14.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +367.8% | $4.35 +20.0% | 58.0% | +97.2% | $3.62 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 4.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 4.0% $10.78 Amberline 4.0% $6.40 Galigator 4.0% $5.67 Urban Sovereign 4.0% $4.77 Night Terror 16.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +435.9% | $3.70 +16.9% | 52.0% | +97.8% | $3.16 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight  30.0% $290.04 Kintsugi  30.0% $62.86 Deathgaze  30.0% $58.69 Abyssal Apparition  3.3% $31.16 Rapid Eye Movement  3.3% $30.73 Melondrama  3.3% $26.06 | $290.04 +202.5% | $126.41 +31.8% | 30.0% | +112.2% | $95.88 | — |