The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Ensnared
2x $0.34
Necro Jr.
1x $0.41
Foresight
1x $0.81
Lifted Spirits
1x $1.72
Bock Blocks
3x $0.78
Fusion
2x $0.92
↓
Possible Outputs
Electrum
10.0% $51.27
Firebreathing
10.0% $31.66
Amberline
10.0% $18.87
Galigator
10.0% $14.51
Urban Sovereign
10.0% $13.85
Ticket to Hell
10.0% $10.13
Max Win
$51.27 (+298.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$15.94 (+23.8%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+111.5%
Cost
$12.88
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $12.88
Ask Price EV $15.94 (+23.8%)
Bid Price EV $13.69 (+6.3%)
Ask Profit $3.06 (+23.8%)
Bid Profit $0.81 (+6.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $2.25 (+17.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$3.06
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.81
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $51.27 (+298.1%)
Worst Case $2.27 (-82.4%)
Volatility +111.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 40.0%
Avg Win +$13.15
Avg Loss -$7.03
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.27 (-82.4%)
Std Dev $14.36
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 148h 32m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Foresight
—
Factory New
$0.81 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Factory New
$1.72 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Factory New
$1.89 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.78 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Minimal Wear
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.95 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Fusion
—
Factory New
$2.47 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.59 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 46M 18S //TOTAL COST $12.88 //ASK PRICE EV $15.94 //BID PRICE EV $13.69 //ASK PROFIT $3.06 (+23.8%) //BID PROFIT $0.81 (+6.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $51.27 //VOLATILITY +111.5% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$51.27
+$38.39
+298.1%
$43.51
+$30.63
+237.8%
$7.76
15.1%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$31.66
+$18.78
+145.8%
$29.45
+$16.57
+128.6%
$2.21
7.0%
—
WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$18.87
+$5.99
+46.5%
$12.97
+$0.09
+0.7%
$5.90
31.3%
—
SMALL WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$14.51
+$1.63
+12.7%
$13.05
+$0.17
+1.3%
$1.46
10.1%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$13.85
+$0.97
+7.5%
$11.82
-$1.06
-8.2%
$2.03
14.6%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$10.13
-$2.76
-21.4%
$8.42
-$4.46
-34.6%
$1.71
16.8%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$7.92
-$4.96
-38.5%
$7.88
-$5.00
-38.8%
$0.04
0.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$5.94
-$6.94
-53.9%
$5.08
-$7.80
-60.6%
$0.86
14.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.99
-$9.90
-76.8%
$2.62
-$10.26
-79.7%
$0.36
12.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.27
-$10.61
-82.4%
$2.13
-$10.75
-83.5%
$0.14
6.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 31.657,
"optimistic_value": 31.02,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 29.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:39.490012Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 5.939,
"optimistic_value": 5.89,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 5.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:36.501602Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 14.512,
"optimistic_value": 14.33,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 13.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:43.833807Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 51.274,
"optimistic_value": 50.91,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 43.51,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:44.200704Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.048985999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 7.921,
"optimistic_value": 7.9,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 7.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:44.517728Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 18.869,
"optimistic_value": 17.56,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 12.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:36:10.284461Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 13.847,
"optimistic_value": 13.84,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 11.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:28:53.997631Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0468866,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 2.985,
"optimistic_value": 2.95,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T20:23:52.712289Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.053184800000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 10.125,
"optimistic_value": 10.09,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 8.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:05:44.991761Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.03499,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.2675,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:33:48.937992Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_0716786f7a54ef1388a255f6",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "518620122755714344",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ensnared (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:26.376201Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "497228190142503425",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:26.752142Z"
},
{
"price": 0.81,
"skin_id": "skin-c8ccc993ef98",
"listing_id": "503983642532457235",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Foresight (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Foresight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c8ccc993ef98.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:10.078606Z"
},
{
"price": 1.72,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "506235389469297444",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:19:58.137592Z"
},
{
"price": 1.89,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "624453518130657294",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ensnared (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:25.062408Z"
},
{
"price": 0.78,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "525375740885184271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:25:38.550710Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "523123722383769418",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:31.098658Z"
},
{
"price": 0.95,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "528753335314230633",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:25:38.550710Z"
},
{
"price": 2.47,
"skin_id": "skin-39ceb900b437",
"listing_id": "490472790738106563",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Fusion",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-39ceb900b437.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:19.933203Z"
},
{
"price": 2.59,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "499479989895893281",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:22:52.244658Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-30:5+collection-set-community-37:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 10.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 10.0% $10.78 Amberline 10.0% $6.38 Galigator 10.0% $5.67 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $4.82 Night Terror 10.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +278.0% | $5.66 +26.2% | 50.0% | +88.5% | $4.48 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Dead Hand Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Electrum 10.0% $10.69 Firebreathing 10.0% $6.12 Galigator 10.0% $3.56 Amberline 10.0% $2.88 Urban Sovereign 10.0% $2.71 Night Terror 10.0% $2.66 | $10.69 +290.3% | $3.35 +22.2% | 40.0% | +91.4% | $2.74 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×2+The Dead Hand Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 16.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 16.0% $31.66 Amberline 16.0% $18.87 Galigator 16.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 16.0% $13.85 Ticket to Hell 4.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +207.4% | $22.00 +31.9% | 48.0% | +80.2% | $16.68 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×3+The Dead Hand Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 14.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 14.0% $31.66 Amberline 14.0% $18.87 Galigator 14.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 14.0% $13.85 Ticket to Hell 6.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +236.0% | $19.98 +30.9% | 42.0% | +85.9% | $15.26 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 18.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 18.0% $31.66 Amberline 18.0% $18.87 Galigator 18.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 18.0% $13.85 Ticket to Hell 2.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +179.1% | $24.01 +30.7% | 54.0% | +74.6% | $18.37 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×4+The Dead Hand Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Electrum 12.0% $51.27 Firebreathing 12.0% $31.66 Amberline 12.0% $18.87 Galigator 12.0% $14.51 Urban Sovereign 12.0% $13.85 Ticket to Hell 8.0% $10.13 | $51.27 +264.9% | $17.96 +27.8% | 48.0% | +91.2% | $14.05 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Dead Hand Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 8.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 8.0% $10.78 Amberline 8.0% $6.38 Galigator 8.0% $5.67 Urban Sovereign 8.0% $4.85 Night Terror 12.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +326.6% | $5.01 +26.2% | 52.0% | +95.3% | $3.97 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Dead Hand Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 6.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 6.0% $10.78 Amberline 6.0% $6.38 Galigator 6.0% $5.67 Urban Sovereign 6.0% $4.82 Night Terror 14.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +381.1% | $4.36 +23.7% | 58.0% | +99.8% | $3.52 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Dead Hand Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Electrum 4.0% $16.94 Firebreathing 4.0% $10.78 Amberline 4.0% $6.38 Galigator 4.0% $5.67 Urban Sovereign 4.0% $4.82 Night Terror 16.0% $4.12 | $16.94 +441.1% | $3.70 +18.3% | 52.0% | +98.6% | $3.13 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×1+The Dead Hand Collection ×9 Restricted → Classified Factory New ST | Crane Flight  30.0% $290.04 Kintsugi  30.0% $61.35 Deathgaze  30.0% $56.41 Abyssal Apparition  3.3% $31.16 Rapid Eye Movement  3.3% $30.73 Melondrama  3.3% $26.06 | $290.04 +203.9% | $125.27 +31.2% | 30.0% | +113.4% | $95.45 | — |