The Safehouse Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Forest Leaves
2x $0.10
VariCamo
1x $0.16
Condemned
1x $0.23
Robin's Egg
2x $0.14
Naval Shred Camo
1x $0.17
Rose Nacre
1x $0.17
↓
Possible Outputs
Mint Fan
12.0% $3.37
Teardown
13.3% $2.81
Royal Baroque
12.0% $2.64
Reef Grief
12.0% $2.10
Yeti Camo
12.0% $1.88
Silver Quartz
13.3% $1.38
Max Win
$3.37 (+100.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.07 (+23.5%)
Win %
61.3%
Volatility
+44.6%
Cost
$1.68
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $1.68
Ask Price EV $2.07 (+23.5%)
Bid Price EV $1.99 (+18.7%)
Ask Profit $0.39 (+23.5%)
Bid Profit $0.31 (+18.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.08 (+4.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.39
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.31
Risk
Win Probability 61.3%
Loss Probability 38.7%
Best Case $3.37 (+100.8%)
Worst Case $1.11 (-33.7%)
Volatility +44.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 12.0%
Avg Win +$0.89
Avg Loss -$0.39
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.11 (-33.7%)
Std Dev $0.75
Avg Norm Float 0.1158
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 26m
Oldest Output Price 9h 45m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
USP-S | Forest Leaves
—
Field-Tested
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | Forest Leaves
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | VariCamo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Condemned
—
Minimal Wear
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 10M 24S //TOTAL COST $1.68 //ASK PRICE EV $2.07 //BID PRICE EV $1.99 //ASK PROFIT $0.39 (+23.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.31 (+18.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 61.3% //BEST CASE $3.37 //VOLATILITY +44.6% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$3.37
+$1.69
+100.8%
$3.34
+$1.66
+98.8%
$0.03
1.0%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
13.3%
$2.81
+$1.13
+67.3%
$2.77
+$1.09
+64.9%
$0.04
1.4%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$2.64
+$0.96
+57.4%
$2.62
+$0.94
+56.0%
$0.02
0.9%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$2.10
+$0.42
+25.2%
$2.00
+$0.32
+19.0%
$0.10
4.9%
—
PAPER WIN
12.0%
$1.88
+$0.20
+12.1%
$1.61
-$0.07
-4.2%
$0.27
14.5%
—
LOSS
13.3%
$1.38
-$0.30
-17.6%
$1.33
-$0.35
-20.8%
$0.05
3.9%
—
LOSS
13.3%
$1.36
-$0.32
-19.0%
$1.31
-$0.37
-22.0%
$0.05
3.7%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$1.11
-$0.57
-33.7%
$1.04
-$0.64
-38.1%
$0.07
6.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-safehouse|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06948599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-466d0513f5e8",
"realistic_value": 2.8104999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 2.8,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 2.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Teardown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:05:11.101312Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-466d0513f5e8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.046324000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45614ab4f605",
"realistic_value": 1.3835,
"optimistic_value": 1.38,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz",
"conservative_value": 1.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:05:30.882078Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45614ab4f605.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0034742999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8d85f69ac3c8",
"realistic_value": 1.361,
"optimistic_value": 1.34,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade",
"conservative_value": 1.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:38:54.690988Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d85f69ac3c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06948599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3735,
"optimistic_value": 3.37,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:04:34.725538Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.08106699999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 1.8835,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 1.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:38:15.368781Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.0752765,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 1.1135000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 1.11,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 1.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:29:30.148159Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06948599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.6435,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:36:17.154458Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06948599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.103,
"optimistic_value": 2.04,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:56.215972Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_04e46d2fe4d497d89cbdb085",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
"listing_id": "520872088105979016",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)",
"name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:36.504825Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
"listing_id": "606438509290341941",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)",
"name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:36.504825Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-dcf4de6c10e3",
"listing_id": "528752590517010405",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | VariCamo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dcf4de6c10e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:07:29.075607Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-64d604ccd5cf",
"listing_id": "509613089304149787",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Condemned (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Condemned",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-64d604ccd5cf.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:59:29.701010Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "502857637417906948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:49:12.994090Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "525375635593436155",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:49:12.994090Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-c096d50b4039",
"listing_id": "491597893797568694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c096d50b4039.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:48:45.841158Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "516368488724892626",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:45.988670Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "490472790737224023",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:38.469482Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "654852743754232591",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:38.469482Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-safehouse:4+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.88 Acid Fade 13.3% $1.36 Royal Baroque 12.0% $1.15 Cobalt Paisley 12.0% $1.11 Reef Grief 12.0% $1.09 Mint Fan 12.0% $1.03 | $1.88 +126.9% | $1.04 +25.2% | 73.3% | +38.4% | $0.83 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 10.0% $3.37 Teardown 16.7% $2.81 Royal Baroque 10.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 10.0% $2.10 Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.88 Silver Quartz 16.7% $1.38 | $3.37 +99.6% | $2.04 +20.6% | 56.7% | +36.9% | $1.69 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 6.0% $3.37 Teardown 23.3% $2.81 Royal Baroque 6.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 6.0% $2.10 Yeti Camo 6.0% $1.88 Silver Quartz 23.3% $1.38 | $3.37 +82.4% | $1.96 +6.1% | 47.3% | +34.0% | $1.85 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate  45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard  45.0% $13.85 Nitro  10.0% $1.89 | $38.92 +90.0% | $23.94 +16.8% | 45.0% | +68.2% | $20.49 | — |