The Safehouse Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Forest Leaves
1x $0.31
VariCamo
3x $0.72
Sour Grapes
1x $0.32
Turquoise Pour
3x $0.38
Gum Wall Camo
2x $0.40
↓
Possible Outputs
Yeti Camo
12.0% $4.46
Mint Fan
12.0% $3.37
Teardown
13.3% $2.81
Cobalt Paisley
12.0% $2.66
Royal Baroque
12.0% $2.64
Reef Grief
12.0% $2.10
Max Win
$4.46 (-18.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.57 (-52.8%)
Win %
0.0%
Volatility
+17.7%
Cost
$5.44
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.44
Ask Price EV $2.57 (-52.8%)
Bid Price EV $2.52 (-53.6%)
Ask Profit $-2.87 (-52.8%)
Bid Profit $-2.92 (-53.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.04 (+0.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.87
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.92
Risk
Win Probability 0.00%
Loss Probability 100.0%
Best Case $4.46 (-18.0%)
Worst Case $1.36 (-75.0%)
Volatility +17.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 88.0%
Avg Win —
Avg Loss -$2.87
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.36 (-75.0%)
Std Dev $0.96
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 6h 33m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
USP-S | Forest Leaves
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | VariCamo
—
Factory New
$0.72 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | VariCamo
—
Factory New
$0.76 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | VariCamo
—
Factory New
$0.84 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 10M 39S //TOTAL COST $5.44 //ASK PRICE EV $2.57 //BID PRICE EV $2.52 //ASK PROFIT $-2.87 (-52.8%) //BID PROFIT $-2.92 (-53.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 0.0% //BEST CASE $4.46 //VOLATILITY +17.7% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
LOSS
12.0%
$4.46
-$0.98
-18.0%
$4.43
-$1.01
-18.6%
$0.03
0.7%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$3.37
-$2.07
-38.0%
$3.34
-$2.10
-38.6%
$0.03
1.0%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$2.81
-$2.63
-48.3%
$2.77
-$2.67
-49.1%
$0.04
1.4%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$2.66
-$2.78
-51.2%
$2.64
-$2.80
-51.5%
$0.02
0.6%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$2.64
-$2.80
-51.4%
$2.62
-$2.82
-51.8%
$0.02
0.9%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$2.10
-$3.34
-61.3%
$2.00
-$3.44
-63.2%
$0.10
4.9%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$1.38
-$4.06
-74.6%
$1.33
-$4.11
-75.6%
$0.05
3.9%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$1.36
-$4.08
-75.0%
$1.31
-$4.13
-75.9%
$0.05
3.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-safehouse|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.04194,
"output_skin_id": "skin-466d0513f5e8",
"realistic_value": 2.8104999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 2.8,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Teardown",
"conservative_value": 2.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Teardown (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:05:11.101312Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-466d0513f5e8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.027960000000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-45614ab4f605",
"realistic_value": 1.3835,
"optimistic_value": 1.38,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz",
"conservative_value": 1.33,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:05:30.882078Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-45614ab4f605.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.002097,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8d85f69ac3c8",
"realistic_value": 1.361,
"optimistic_value": 1.34,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade",
"conservative_value": 1.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Safehouse Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:38:54.690988Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d85f69ac3c8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.04194,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3735,
"optimistic_value": 3.37,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:04:34.725538Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.04893,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.461,
"optimistic_value": 4.44,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:42:10.424256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.045435,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.657,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:57:00.931704Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.04194,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.6435,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:36:17.154458Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.04194,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.103,
"optimistic_value": 2.04,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:56:56.215972Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_04e46d2fe4d497d89cbdb085",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-ffe1b0513490",
"listing_id": "490472738292450807",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "USP-S | Forest Leaves",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ffe1b0513490.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:07.139650Z"
},
{
"price": 0.72,
"skin_id": "skin-dcf4de6c10e3",
"listing_id": "527627435179555100",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | VariCamo (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dcf4de6c10e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:40.643287Z"
},
{
"price": 0.76,
"skin_id": "skin-dcf4de6c10e3",
"listing_id": "500605837397524451",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | VariCamo (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dcf4de6c10e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:40.643287Z"
},
{
"price": 0.84,
"skin_id": "skin-dcf4de6c10e3",
"listing_id": "516368322943257110",
"collection_id": "collection-set-safehouse",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | VariCamo (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | VariCamo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dcf4de6c10e3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:51:40.643287Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "524249787961282407",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:13:23.823237Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "508487136897429290",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:12:57.686649Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "515242536109828297",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:12:57.686649Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "492724538181071325",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:13:14.767701Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "529878490365643356",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:12:57.686649Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "525375522202630771",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:13:14.767701Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-safehouse:4+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.88 Acid Fade 13.3% $1.36 Royal Baroque 12.0% $1.15 Cobalt Paisley 12.0% $1.11 Reef Grief 12.0% $1.09 Mint Fan 12.0% $1.03 | $1.88 +126.9% | $1.04 +25.2% | 73.3% | +38.4% | $0.83 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 12.0% $3.37 Teardown 13.3% $2.81 Royal Baroque 12.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 12.0% $2.10 Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.88 Silver Quartz 13.3% $1.38 | $3.37 +100.8% | $2.07 +23.5% | 61.3% | +36.8% | $1.68 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 10.0% $3.37 Teardown 16.7% $2.81 Royal Baroque 10.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 10.0% $2.10 Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.88 Silver Quartz 16.7% $1.38 | $3.37 +99.6% | $2.04 +20.6% | 56.7% | +36.9% | $1.69 | — |
The Safehouse Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 6.0% $3.37 Teardown 23.3% $2.81 Royal Baroque 6.0% $2.64 Reef Grief 6.0% $2.10 Yeti Camo 6.0% $1.88 Silver Quartz 23.3% $1.38 | $3.37 +82.4% | $1.96 +6.1% | 47.3% | +34.0% | $1.85 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Safehouse Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate  45.0% $38.92 Royal Guard  45.0% $13.85 Nitro  10.0% $1.89 | $38.92 +90.0% | $23.94 +16.8% | 45.0% | +68.2% | $20.49 | — |