The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted BS 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred
Inputs
Irezumi
1x $0.13
Light Box
1x $0.14
Fraise Crane
2x $0.35
Earth Mandala
5x $0.38
Warm Blooded
1x $0.48
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
40.0% $7.18
Sleeping Potion
40.0% $2.43
Block-18
4.0% $0.77
Etch Lord
4.0% $0.72
Analog Input
4.0% $0.71
Hybrid
4.0% $0.66
Max Win
$7.18 (+85.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.98 (+2.9%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+69.4%
Cost
$3.87
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $3.87
Ask Price EV $3.98 (+2.9%)
Bid Price EV $3.65 (-5.7%)
Ask Profit $0.11 (+2.9%)
Bid Profit $-0.22 (-5.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.33 (+8.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.11
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.22
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $7.18 (+85.5%)
Worst Case $0.66 (-82.9%)
Volatility +69.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$3.31
Avg Loss -$2.02
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.66 (-82.9%)
Std Dev $2.68
Avg Norm Float 0.5224
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 153h 16m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Speculative Upside · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Well-Worn
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 48M 36S //TOTAL COST $3.87 //ASK PRICE EV $3.98 //BID PRICE EV $3.65 //ASK PROFIT $0.11 (+2.9%) //BID PROFIT $-0.22 (-5.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $7.18 //VOLATILITY +69.4% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
40.0%
$7.18
+$3.31
+85.5%
$6.57
+$2.70
+69.8%
$0.61
8.5%
—
LOSS
40.0%
$2.43
-$1.44
-37.3%
$2.25
-$1.62
-41.9%
$0.18
7.3%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.77
-$3.10
-80.1%
$0.71
-$3.16
-81.7%
$0.06
7.9%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.72
-$3.15
-81.4%
$0.61
-$3.26
-84.2%
$0.11
15.3%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.71
-$3.16
-81.7%
$0.61
-$3.26
-84.2%
$0.10
14.1%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.66
-$3.21
-82.9%
$0.55
-$3.32
-85.8%
$0.11
16.7%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.66
-$3.21
-82.9%
$0.57
-$3.30
-85.3%
$0.09
13.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.36566599999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 7.179,
"optimistic_value": 6.99,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 6.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:45:19.442892Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.36566599999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.4274999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 2.34,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:34:49.263199Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.52238,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 0.66,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 0.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:28.400600Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.35097406249999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 0.771,
"optimistic_value": 0.75,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T22:11:50.072397Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.52238,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 0.72,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:05:04.657047Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.52238,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 0.66,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Battle-Scarred)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T03:25:27.486591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.3232800868,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 0.71,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:14:31.205931Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_04d73cb46724e6212057ca0f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "512990789045330051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Irezumi (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:00:01.920153Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "506235442367962728",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:59:49.619997Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "491598743580817802",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:01:55.013543Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "498354142900431571",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:22.982222Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "523123940969302990",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:22.982222Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "529879235106122832",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:07:22.982222Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "516368541589300130",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Well-Worn)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:01:47.753518Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "500605942756164383",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:50.138313Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "515242641502271149",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:05.539094Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "527627540537457284",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:50.138313Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:2+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.45 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $9.96 Block-18 10.0% $1.43 Analog Input 10.0% $0.99 Hybrid 10.0% $0.76 Just Smile 10.0% $0.75 | $13.45 +171.1% | $6.32 +27.3% | 50.0% | +105.6% | $4.96 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.70 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $9.97 Block-18 16.0% $1.43 Analog Input 16.0% $0.99 Etch Lord 16.0% $0.78 Just Smile 16.0% $0.73 | $13.70 +459.3% | $3.11 +26.8% | 20.0% | +177.3% | $2.45 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 35.0% $13.45 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $9.96 Block-18 6.0% $1.43 Analog Input 6.0% $0.99 Hybrid 6.0% $0.76 Just Smile 6.0% $0.75 | $13.45 +88.9% | $8.47 +19.0% | 70.0% | +67.2% | $7.12 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.70 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $9.88 Block-18 8.0% $1.42 Analog Input 8.0% $1.02 Etch Lord 8.0% $0.78 Just Smile 8.0% $0.73 | $13.70 +117.5% | $7.45 +18.2% | 60.0% | +82.3% | $6.30 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Party Animal  40.0% $158.85 Black Lotus  20.0% $12.65 Jawbreaker  20.0% $10.63 Olympus  20.0% $7.36 | $158.85 +149.4% | $69.67 +9.4% | 40.0% | +114.3% | $63.70 | — |