The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Dark Sigil
1x $0.84
Motorized
1x $2.50
Sky Mandala
1x $1.70
Warm Blooded
6x $2.27
Earth Mandala
1x $2.36
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
40.0% $26.86
Sleeping Potion
40.0% $22.67
Etch Lord
4.0% $10.49
Just Smile
4.0% $9.45
Hybrid
4.0% $8.10
Block-18
4.0% $4.18
Max Win
$26.86 (+11.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$21.22 (-11.6%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+31.0%
Cost
$24.01
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $24.01
Ask Price EV $21.22 (-11.6%)
Bid Price EV $19.93 (-17.0%)
Ask Profit $-2.79 (-11.6%)
Bid Profit $-4.08 (-17.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.29 (+5.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.79
Bid Slippage Buffer -$4.08
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $26.86 (+11.9%)
Worst Case $2.99 (-87.5%)
Volatility +31.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%
Avg Win +$2.85
Avg Loss -$6.55
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.18 (-82.6%)
Std Dev $7.45
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 32m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.84 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Factory New
$2.50 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Minimal Wear
$1.70 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.38 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.48 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.59 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Factory New
$4.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 48M 35S //TOTAL COST $24.01 //ASK PRICE EV $21.22 //BID PRICE EV $19.93 //ASK PROFIT $-2.79 (-11.6%) //BID PROFIT $-4.08 (-17.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $26.86 //VOLATILITY +31.0% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
SMALL WIN
40.0%
$26.86
+$2.85
+11.9%
$26.31
+$2.30
+9.6%
$0.55
2.1%
—
LOSS
40.0%
$22.67
-$1.34
-5.6%
$20.01
-$4.00
-16.7%
$2.66
11.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$10.49
-$13.52
-56.3%
$10.32
-$13.69
-57.0%
$0.17
1.7%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$9.45
-$14.56
-60.6%
$9.40
-$14.61
-60.8%
$0.05
0.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
4.0%
$8.10
-$15.91
-66.3%
$8.09
-$15.92
-66.3%
$0.01
0.1%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$4.18
-$19.83
-82.6%
$4.18
-$19.83
-82.6%
$0.00
0.0%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$2.99
-$21.02
-87.5%
$2.99
-$21.02
-87.5%
$0.00
0.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.048964999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 26.862,
"optimistic_value": 26.75,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 26.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:45:33.178592Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.048964999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 22.6655,
"optimistic_value": 22.34,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 20.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:47:10.512363Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 8.1,
"optimistic_value": 8.1,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 8.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:59:45.187412Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.04699765625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.18,
"optimistic_value": 4.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 4.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:05:30.859051Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 10.493500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 10.49,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 10.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:07:49.555662Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.06995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.4505,
"optimistic_value": 9.44,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 9.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:07:38.047710Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.043289257,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 2.99,
"optimistic_value": 2.99,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 2.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:03:17.011670Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_04d73cb46724e6212057ca0f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.84,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "509613089305575423",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:53:04.495740Z"
},
{
"price": 2.5,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "523123888072506466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Motorized (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:12.352157Z"
},
{
"price": 1.7,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "505108692514180796",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:40.513777Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "518620341243733276",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:26.763160Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "516368488725166478",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:08:13.313104Z"
},
{
"price": 2.38,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494441497333122",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:26.763160Z"
},
{
"price": 2.48,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "500605724248646447",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:26.763160Z"
},
{
"price": 2.59,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "518620235868493708",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:26.763160Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "517494336188898790",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:26.763160Z"
},
{
"price": 4.19,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "528753440605574541",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:26.763160Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:2+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.87 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $10.03 Block-18 12.0% $1.37 Analog Input 12.0% $1.02 Etch Lord 12.0% $0.80 Hybrid 12.0% $0.76 | $13.87 +248.5% | $5.34 +34.3% | 40.0% | +133.1% | $3.98 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.84 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $9.88 Block-18 10.0% $1.42 Analog Input 10.0% $1.02 Etch Lord 10.0% $0.78 Just Smile 10.0% $0.73 | $13.84 +175.7% | $6.40 +27.4% | 50.0% | +106.5% | $5.02 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.84 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $9.94 Block-18 16.0% $1.37 Analog Input 16.0% $1.02 Etch Lord 16.0% $0.80 Hybrid 16.0% $0.76 | $13.84 +436.5% | $3.13 +21.3% | 20.0% | +169.3% | $2.58 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.87 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $10.03 Block-18 8.0% $1.37 Analog Input 8.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 8.0% $0.80 Just Smile 8.0% $0.73 | $13.87 +120.2% | $7.55 +19.8% | 60.0% | +83.4% | $6.30 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 35.0% $26.86 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $22.67 Block-18 6.0% $4.18 Analog Input 6.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 6.0% $1.64 Just Smile 6.0% $1.61 | $26.86 +72.1% | $18.05 +15.6% | 70.0% | +61.5% | $15.61 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Party Animal  30.0% $158.85 Black Lotus  23.3% $12.65 Jawbreaker  23.3% $10.75 Olympus  23.3% $7.37 | $158.85 +218.1% | $54.83 +9.8% | 30.0% | +136.4% | $49.94 | — |