The Kilowatt Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Irezumi
2x $0.12
Sky Mandala
1x $0.38
Fraise Crane
3x $0.39
Earth Mandala
2x $0.52
Warm Blooded
2x $0.54
↓
Possible Outputs
Exothermic
40.0% $7.12
Sleeping Potion
40.0% $2.64
Block-18
4.0% $0.77
Etch Lord
4.0% $0.73
Hybrid
4.0% $0.71
Just Smile
4.0% $0.64
Max Win
$7.12 (+67.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.04 (-4.9%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+61.5%
Cost
$4.25
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.25
Ask Price EV $4.04 (-4.9%)
Bid Price EV $3.69 (-13.1%)
Ask Profit $-0.21 (-4.9%)
Bid Profit $-0.56 (-13.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.35 (+8.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.21
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.56
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $7.12 (+67.5%)
Worst Case $0.62 (-85.4%)
Volatility +61.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 60.0%
Avg Win +$2.87
Avg Loss -$2.26
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.64 (-84.9%)
Std Dev $2.61
Avg Norm Float 0.4191
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 27m
Oldest Output Price 154h 16m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Sky Mandala
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane
—
Field-Tested
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala
—
Field-Tested
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Warm Blooded
—
Field-Tested
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 48M 46S //TOTAL COST $4.25 //ASK PRICE EV $4.04 //BID PRICE EV $3.69 //ASK PROFIT $-0.21 (-4.9%) //BID PROFIT $-0.56 (-13.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $7.12 //VOLATILITY +61.5% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
40.0%
$7.12
+$2.87
+67.5%
$6.61
+$2.36
+55.5%
$0.51
7.2%
—
LOSS
40.0%
$2.64
-$1.61
-37.9%
$2.32
-$1.93
-45.4%
$0.32
12.1%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.77
-$3.48
-81.9%
$0.71
-$3.54
-83.3%
$0.06
7.9%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.73
-$3.52
-82.8%
$0.58
-$3.67
-86.4%
$0.15
20.5%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.71
-$3.54
-83.3%
$0.57
-$3.68
-86.6%
$0.14
19.7%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.64
-$3.61
-84.9%
$0.57
-$3.68
-86.6%
$0.07
11.0%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$0.62
-$3.63
-85.4%
$0.61
-$3.64
-85.6%
$0.01
1.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.293384,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
"realistic_value": 7.120500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 6.9,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
"conservative_value": 6.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:59:51.318143Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.4,
"output_float": 0.293384,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
"realistic_value": 2.638,
"optimistic_value": 2.61,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
"conservative_value": 2.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:00.396549Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.41912,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 0.71,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:17:11.263775Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.28159625,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 0.771,
"optimistic_value": 0.75,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18 (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T22:11:50.072397Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.41912,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 0.73,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 0.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:02:07.825109Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.41912,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 0.6405000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 0.63,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 0.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Just Smile (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:08:36.174769Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.2593766032,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 0.62,
"optimistic_value": 0.62,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 0.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:03:25.831993Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_04d73cb46724e6212057ca0f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "491598743580989306",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Irezumi (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:51:04.020910Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "512990789045330051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Irezumi (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:51:04.020910Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"listing_id": "492724643508171549",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:02:15.490655Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "514116741798087150",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:17:50.181626Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "502857742727481508",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:45.729112Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"listing_id": "515242641502554145",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:45.729112Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "509613142168284447",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:44.705481Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "507361342334091697",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:19.936374Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"listing_id": "527627540537457284",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:44.705481Z"
},
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"listing_id": "525375688037733811",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:19.936374Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-33:2+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 20.0% $13.87 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $10.03 Block-18 12.0% $1.37 Analog Input 12.0% $1.02 Etch Lord 12.0% $0.80 Hybrid 12.0% $0.76 | $13.87 +248.5% | $5.34 +34.3% | 40.0% | +133.1% | $3.98 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 25.0% $13.84 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $9.88 Block-18 10.0% $1.42 Analog Input 10.0% $1.02 Etch Lord 10.0% $0.78 Just Smile 10.0% $0.73 | $13.84 +175.7% | $6.40 +27.4% | 50.0% | +106.5% | $5.02 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 10.0% $13.84 Sleeping Potion 10.0% $9.94 Block-18 16.0% $1.37 Analog Input 16.0% $1.02 Etch Lord 16.0% $0.80 Hybrid 16.0% $0.76 | $13.84 +436.5% | $3.13 +21.3% | 20.0% | +169.3% | $2.58 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic 30.0% $13.87 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $10.03 Block-18 8.0% $1.37 Analog Input 8.0% $1.06 Etch Lord 8.0% $0.80 Just Smile 8.0% $0.73 | $13.87 +120.2% | $7.55 +19.8% | 60.0% | +83.4% | $6.30 | — |
The Kilowatt Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Exothermic 35.0% $26.86 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $22.67 Block-18 6.0% $4.18 Analog Input 6.0% $2.99 Etch Lord 6.0% $1.64 Just Smile 6.0% $1.61 | $26.86 +72.1% | $18.05 +15.6% | 70.0% | +61.5% | $15.61 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Kilowatt Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Restricted → Classified Minimal Wear | Party Animal  30.0% $158.85 Black Lotus  23.3% $12.65 Jawbreaker  23.3% $10.75 Olympus  23.3% $7.37 | $158.85 +218.1% | $54.83 +9.8% | 30.0% | +136.4% | $49.94 | — |