The Achroma Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items

Factory New -11.6%Field-Tested +22.7%Minimal Wear +19.1%Well-Worn +11.1%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn

Inputs

Aeolian Light

1x $0.26

Creep

2x $0.27

The Daily Deagle

3x $0.36

Grip Tape

1x $0.36

Royal Baroque

2x $0.37

Mint Fan

1x $0.42

↓

Possible Outputs

Midnight Laminate

15.0% $6.93

Breakthrough

35.0% $5.85

Trace Lock

35.0% $2.15

Royal Guard

15.0% $1.14

Max Win

$6.93 (+92.0%)

EV (ROI %)

$4.01 (+11.1%)

Win %

50.0%

Volatility

+61.4%

Cost

$3.61

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $3.61

Ask Price EV $4.01 (+11.1%)

Bid Price EV $3.49 (-3.4%)

Ask Profit $0.40 (+11.1%)

Bid Profit $-0.12 (-3.4%)

Liquidity Gap $0.52 (+14.5%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.40

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.12

Risk

Win Probability 50.0%

Loss Probability 50.0%

Best Case $6.93 (+92.0%)

Worst Case $1.14 (-68.4%)

Volatility +61.4%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%

Avg Win +$2.56

Avg Loss -$1.76

Bottom 5% Outcome $1.14 (-68.4%)

Std Dev $2.22

Avg Norm Float 0.4442

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 23m

Oldest Output Price 151h 13m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Safe

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

P90 | Aeolian Light

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.26 Float: HIDDEN

AUG | Creep

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.27 Float: HIDDEN

AUG | Creep

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.28 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle

—

Field-Tested

$0.36 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Grip Tape

—

Field-Tested

$0.36 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle

—

Field-Tested

$0.41 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle

—

Field-Tested

$0.50 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Field-Tested

$0.37 Float: HIDDEN

P2000 | Royal Baroque

—

Field-Tested

$0.38 Float: HIDDEN

Desert Eagle | Mint Fan

—

Field-Tested

$0.42 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 25M 35S //TOTAL COST $3.61 //ASK PRICE EV $4.01 //BID PRICE EV $3.49 //ASK PROFIT $0.40 (+11.1%) //BID PROFIT $-0.12 (-3.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $6.93 //VOLATILITY +61.4% //

Possible Outputs · 4

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.33318000000000003,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
      "realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
      "optimistic_value": 5.77,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
      "conservative_value": 4.91,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.310968,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
      "realistic_value": 2.1535,
      "optimistic_value": 2.15,
      "output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
      "conservative_value": 2.13,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:44.627575Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.15,
      "output_float": 0.33318000000000003,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
      "realistic_value": 6.931,
      "optimistic_value": 6.84,
      "output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
      "conservative_value": 5.76,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:18.798970Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.15,
      "output_float": 0.266544,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
      "realistic_value": 1.139,
      "optimistic_value": 1.09,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
      "conservative_value": 1.07,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:54:34.957368Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_041554d540b84e846963001a",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.26,
      "skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
      "listing_id": "511864941881349645",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:56:45.340590Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.27,
      "skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
      "listing_id": "520872141038059176",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "AUG | Creep",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:47.710708Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.28,
      "skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
      "listing_id": "514116688950863706",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "AUG | Creep",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:47.710708Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
      "listing_id": "520872141037641288",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:16:27.559945Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
      "listing_id": "508487242221974774",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:59.521823Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.41,
      "skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
      "listing_id": "517494441497486806",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:16:27.559945Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
      "listing_id": "494976224705666562",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:16:27.559945Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.37,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "521998040962468770",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:54.821901Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.38,
      "skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
      "listing_id": "525375688037571919",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:06:54.821901Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.42,
      "skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
      "listing_id": "492724590627172473",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
      "market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:56.943225Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:7+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:3"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested	Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.35 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.40	$18.08 +137.5%	$9.34 +22.7%	50.0%	+66.1%	$7.61	—
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 15.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 35.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 35.0% $14.52 Royal Guard 15.0% $13.48	$38.92 +107.3%	$22.36 +19.1%	50.0%	+48.2%	$18.78	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 10.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 10.0% $3.20 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.14	$6.94 +121.1%	$4.16 +32.6%	60.0%	+85.6%	$3.14	—
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Ascent Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Midnight Laminate 5.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 45.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 45.0% $2.15 Royal Guard 5.0% $1.16	$6.94 +118.3%	$4.13 +29.8%	50.0%	+65.7%	$3.18	—
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 5.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 5.0% $14.52 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.48	$38.92 +79.9%	$25.65 +18.6%	50.0%	+57.0%	$21.63	—