The Achroma Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
The Daily Deagle
1x $0.41
Aeolian Light
4x $0.70
Grip Tape
2x $0.73
Cobalt Paisley
2x $0.42
Reef Grief
1x $0.98
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
15.0% $18.08
Breakthrough
35.0% $12.25
Royal Guard
15.0% $5.35
Trace Lock
35.0% $4.22
Max Win
$18.08 (+158.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.28 (+32.7%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+72.9%
Cost
$6.99
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.99
Ask Price EV $9.28 (+32.7%)
Bid Price EV $8.48 (+21.3%)
Ask Profit $2.29 (+32.7%)
Bid Profit $1.49 (+21.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.80 (+11.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$2.29
Bid Slippage Buffer +$1.49
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $18.08 (+158.6%)
Worst Case $4.22 (-39.6%)
Volatility +72.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 35.0%
Avg Win +$7.00
Avg Loss -$2.43
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.22 (-39.6%)
Std Dev $5.09
Avg Norm Float 0.1991
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 149h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Field-Tested
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.70 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.73 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.78 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.78 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Cobalt Paisley
—
Field-Tested
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Minimal Wear
$0.98 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 21M 01S //TOTAL COST $6.99 //ASK PRICE EV $9.28 //BID PRICE EV $8.48 //ASK PROFIT $2.29 (+32.7%) //BID PROFIT $1.49 (+21.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $18.08 //VOLATILITY +72.9% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
15.0%
$18.08
+$11.09
+158.6%
$15.21
+$8.22
+117.6%
$2.87
15.9%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$12.25
+$5.26
+75.2%
$11.36
+$4.37
+62.5%
$0.89
7.2%
—
LOSS
15.0%
$5.35
-$1.64
-23.5%
$5.11
-$1.88
-26.9%
$0.24
4.5%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$4.22
-$2.77
-39.6%
$4.16
-$2.83
-40.5%
$0.06
1.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.14931,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 12.245000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 12.14,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 11.36,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:15.007591Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.139356,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 4.2225,
"optimistic_value": 4.17,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 4.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:52:49.525526Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.14931,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 18.0765,
"optimistic_value": 17.94,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 15.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:04:20.243302Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.119448,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 5.348,
"optimistic_value": 5.32,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 5.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:23.634650Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_041554d540b84e846963001a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "517494441497486806",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:02:31.184941Z"
},
{
"price": 0.7,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "524249840858848503",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:36.430671Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "529879340431745328",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:36.430671Z"
},
{
"price": 0.73,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "524249840858999523",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:33.808326Z"
},
{
"price": 0.78,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "500605889842133939",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:36.430671Z"
},
{
"price": 0.78,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "521998040962328694",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:01:33.808326Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "518620288313427412",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:09:36.430671Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "496102290329888807",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:15:34.591100Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"listing_id": "500605942755288971",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:15:34.591100Z"
},
{
"price": 0.98,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "496102343225671715",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:12:19.992951Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:7+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 35.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 35.0% $14.65 Royal Guard 15.0% $13.57 | $38.92 +116.2% | $22.42 +24.6% | 50.0% | +50.0% | $18.00 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 30.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 20.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 20.0% $3.20 Royal Guard 30.0% $1.21 | $6.94 +114.3% | $4.31 +33.0% | 50.0% | +74.7% | $3.24 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 10.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 10.0% $3.20 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.14 | $6.94 +121.1% | $4.16 +32.6% | 60.0% | +85.6% | $3.14 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 20.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 30.0% $12.25 Royal Guard 20.0% $5.35 Trace Lock 30.0% $4.22 | $18.08 +145.9% | $9.63 +31.0% | 50.0% | +73.0% | $7.35 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 10.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Royal Guard 10.0% $5.35 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.29 | $18.08 +160.8% | $8.96 +29.3% | 50.0% | +68.7% | $6.93 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Ascent Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 5.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Royal Guard 5.0% $5.35 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.22 | $18.08 +168.6% | $8.58 +27.5% | 50.0% | +65.8% | $6.73 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 5.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 5.0% $14.65 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.57 | $38.92 +88.2% | $25.70 +24.3% | 50.0% | +59.4% | $20.68 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan  14.0% $3.23 Royal Baroque  14.0% $2.64 The Daily Deagle 7.5% $2.24 Reef Grief 14.0% $2.05 Yeti Camo  14.0% $1.72 Cobalt Paisley 14.0% $1.14 | $3.23 +123.0% | $1.86 +28.2% | 63.5% | +45.9% | $1.45 | — |