The Achroma Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Creep
4x $0.88
Grip Tape
2x $2.11
The Daily Deagle
1x $3.00
Royal Baroque
2x $1.44
Reef Grief
1x $2.04
↓
Possible Outputs
Midnight Laminate
15.0% $38.92
Breakthrough
35.0% $26.93
Trace Lock
35.0% $14.52
Royal Guard
15.0% $13.48
Max Win
$38.92 (+107.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$22.36 (+19.1%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+48.2%
Cost
$18.78
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $18.78
Ask Price EV $22.36 (+19.1%)
Bid Price EV $21.08 (+12.2%)
Ask Profit $3.58 (+19.1%)
Bid Profit $2.30 (+12.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.28 (+6.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$3.58
Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.30
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $38.92 (+107.3%)
Worst Case $13.48 (-28.2%)
Volatility +48.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 15.0%
Avg Win +$11.75
Avg Loss -$4.58
Bottom 5% Outcome $13.48 (-28.2%)
Std Dev $9.04
Avg Norm Float 0.0931
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 103h 44m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$0.88 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.75 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.98 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.11 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Factory New
$2.13 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.44 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Royal Baroque
—
Minimal Wear
$1.57 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Reef Grief
—
Factory New
$2.04 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 25M 34S //TOTAL COST $18.78 //ASK PRICE EV $22.36 //BID PRICE EV $21.08 //ASK PROFIT $3.58 (+19.1%) //BID PROFIT $2.30 (+12.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $38.92 //VOLATILITY +48.2% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
15.0%
$38.92
+$20.14
+107.3%
$34.38
+$15.60
+83.1%
$4.54
11.7%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$26.93
+$8.15
+43.4%
$26.63
+$7.85
+41.8%
$0.30
1.1%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$14.52
-$4.26
-22.7%
$13.19
-$5.59
-29.8%
$1.33
9.1%
—
LOSS
15.0%
$13.48
-$5.30
-28.2%
$13.24
-$5.54
-29.5%
$0.24
1.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.0698475,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.065191,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 14.517,
"optimistic_value": 14.44,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:38.856555Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.0698475,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dba8faaa2d7e",
"realistic_value": 38.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 38.81,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate",
"conservative_value": 34.38,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-04T03:35:43.246321Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dba8faaa2d7e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.055878000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-b88bf24d8569",
"realistic_value": 13.475999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 13.42,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard",
"conservative_value": 13.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:20.986312Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b88bf24d8569.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_041554d540b84e846963001a",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.88,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "491598743580591830",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:43.688472Z"
},
{
"price": 1.75,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "503983642532704231",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:43.688472Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "524248990833803271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:43.688472Z"
},
{
"price": 1.98,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "653726915754482667",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:43.688472Z"
},
{
"price": 2.11,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "518620341243162136",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:12.181708Z"
},
{
"price": 2.13,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "496102343225786159",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:10:12.181708Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235389469302484",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:51.740881Z"
},
{
"price": 1.44,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "652601015909084844",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:04.070971Z"
},
{
"price": 1.57,
"skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"listing_id": "507361289452175017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:03:04.070971Z"
},
{
"price": 2.04,
"skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"listing_id": "527627540537511572",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:59:44.745483Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:7+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:3"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $18.08 Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Royal Guard 15.0% $5.35 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.40 | $18.08 +137.5% | $9.34 +22.7% | 50.0% | +66.1% | $7.61 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Ascent Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Midnight Laminate 15.0% $6.93 Breakthrough 35.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 35.0% $2.15 Royal Guard 15.0% $1.14 | $6.93 +92.0% | $4.01 +11.1% | 50.0% | +61.4% | $3.61 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Ascent Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 40.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 10.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 10.0% $3.20 Royal Guard 40.0% $1.14 | $6.94 +121.1% | $4.16 +32.6% | 60.0% | +85.6% | $3.14 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Ascent Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate 5.0% $6.94 Breakthrough 45.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 45.0% $2.15 Royal Guard 5.0% $1.16 | $6.94 +118.3% | $4.13 +29.8% | 50.0% | +65.7% | $3.18 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Midnight Laminate 45.0% $38.92 Breakthrough 5.0% $26.93 Trace Lock 5.0% $14.52 Royal Guard 45.0% $13.48 | $38.92 +79.9% | $25.65 +18.6% | 50.0% | +57.0% | $21.63 | — |