The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Dark Polymer
1x $0.21
Bock Blocks
1x $0.41
Fragment
2x $0.47
Zubastick
1x $0.57
RMX
1x $0.58
Shredded
2x $0.47
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
13.3% $15.94
Glitched Paint
13.3% $7.17
Electrum
12.0% $7.00
Bleeding Edge
13.3% $5.65
Firebreathing
12.0% $5.02
Galigator
12.0% $3.38
Max Win
$15.94 (+166.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.45 (+7.9%)
Win %
38.7%
Volatility
+67.1%
Cost
$5.98
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $5.98
Ask Price EV $6.45 (+7.9%)
Bid Price EV $5.76 (-3.6%)
Ask Profit $0.47 (+7.9%)
Bid Profit $-0.22 (-3.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.69 (+11.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.47
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.22
Risk
Win Probability 38.7%
Loss Probability 61.3%
Best Case $15.94 (+166.6%)
Worst Case $3.15 (-47.4%)
Volatility +67.1%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 36.0%
Avg Win +$4.16
Avg Loss -$1.85
Bottom 5% Outcome $3.15 (-47.4%)
Std Dev $4.01
Avg Norm Float 0.1498
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 145h 49m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Field-Tested
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.57 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Minimal Wear
$0.83 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$0.98 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01M 26S //TOTAL COST $5.98 //ASK PRICE EV $6.45 //BID PRICE EV $5.76 //ASK PROFIT $0.47 (+7.9%) //BID PROFIT $-0.22 (-3.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 38.7% //BEST CASE $15.94 //VOLATILITY +67.1% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
13.3%
$15.94
+$9.96
+166.6%
$14.54
+$8.56
+143.1%
$1.40
8.8%
—
WIN
13.3%
$7.17
+$1.19
+20.0%
$6.21
+$0.23
+3.8%
$0.96
13.4%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$7.00
+$1.02
+17.0%
$5.93
-$0.05
-0.8%
$1.07
15.2%
—
LOSS
13.3%
$5.65
-$0.33
-5.5%
$5.14
-$0.84
-14.0%
$0.51
9.1%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$5.02
-$0.96
-16.1%
$3.97
-$2.01
-33.6%
$1.05
20.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$3.38
-$2.60
-43.5%
$3.16
-$2.82
-47.2%
$0.22
6.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$3.26
-$2.72
-45.4%
$3.13
-$2.85
-47.7%
$0.13
4.1%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$3.15
-$2.83
-47.4%
$3.08
-$2.90
-48.5%
$0.07
2.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.11238000000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 15.9415,
"optimistic_value": 15.91,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 14.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:07.329445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1003928,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 7.1745,
"optimistic_value": 7.15,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:37:39.244200Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.089904,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 5.653,
"optimistic_value": 5.52,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 5.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:47:40.345971Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 5.0200000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 4.95,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 3.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:12:02.254588Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 3.3805,
"optimistic_value": 3.37,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 3.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:42:38.911963Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 6.997,
"optimistic_value": 6.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 5.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:54.312286Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 3.2635,
"optimistic_value": 3.26,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 3.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:31.986953Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.14984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 3.1470000000000002,
"optimistic_value": 3.14,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 3.08,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:37:26.840609Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_014d07a746ae57b59bf8386b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-19e064301c88",
"listing_id": "498354089953932655",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-19e064301c88.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:55:17.618766Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "512990623223626859",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:50:27.911080Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "517494388634246782",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:57:39.652121Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "507361289453751817",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:57:39.652121Z"
},
{
"price": 0.57,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "499479989897047261",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:55:29.743379Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "519746188259337632",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:55:09.445620Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "520872088105717584",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:16.665087Z"
},
{
"price": 0.83,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "494976390476814342",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:40:36.222183Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "519746188259296772",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:53:08.315351Z"
},
{
"price": 0.98,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "510738989040706534",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:53:08.315351Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:6+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.65 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +273.3% | $5.38 +25.9% | 40.0% | +98.1% | $4.27 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.65 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +202.5% | $6.78 +28.7% | 60.0% | +86.1% | $5.27 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.01 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.65 Electrum 2.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 2.0% $2.79 Galigator 2.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +130.7% | $8.83 +27.8% | 60.0% | +66.7% | $6.91 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.65 Electrum 4.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 4.0% $2.79 Galigator 4.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +148.3% | $8.18 +27.4% | 53.3% | +71.9% | $6.42 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.65 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +171.6% | $7.48 +27.3% | 46.7% | +78.4% | $5.87 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.65 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +231.4% | $6.07 +26.1% | 50.0% | +91.7% | $4.81 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.91 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +314.1% | $4.68 +21.6% | 44.0% | +100.2% | $3.85 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $5.01 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Glitched Paint 6.7% $2.92 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $2.13 | $5.01 +111.2% | $2.68 +13.1% | 45.3% | +36.6% | $2.37 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 3.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 3.3% $7.17 Electrum 18.0% $7.00 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $5.65 Firebreathing 18.0% $5.02 Galigator 18.0% $3.38 | $15.94 +256.6% | $4.88 +9.3% | 46.0% | +52.4% | $4.47 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  30.0% $35.39 Nouveau Rouge  10.0% $21.36 Deathgaze  30.0% $10.22 Kintsugi  30.0% $9.69 | $35.39 +123.6% | $18.73 +18.3% | 40.0% | +72.1% | $15.83 | — |