The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Fragment
3x $0.27
Bock Blocks
1x $0.41
Zubastick
2x $0.43
Rose Hex
2x $0.34
Shredded
2x $0.47
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
13.3% $15.94
Glitched Paint
13.3% $6.72
Bleeding Edge
13.3% $5.91
Electrum
12.0% $4.11
Firebreathing
12.0% $2.79
Galigator
12.0% $2.19
Max Win
$15.94 (+279.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.36 (+27.6%)
Win %
40.0%
Volatility
+107.2%
Cost
$4.20
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.20
Ask Price EV $5.36 (+27.6%)
Bid Price EV $4.76 (+13.4%)
Ask Profit $1.16 (+27.6%)
Bid Profit $0.56 (+13.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.59 (+14.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$1.16
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.56
Risk
Win Probability 40.0%
Loss Probability 60.0%
Best Case $15.94 (+279.6%)
Worst Case $1.90 (-54.8%)
Volatility +107.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 48.0%
Avg Win +$5.33
Avg Loss -$1.62
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.90 (-54.8%)
Std Dev $4.50
Avg Norm Float 0.1983
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 14m
Oldest Output Price 144h 50m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Fragment
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Minimal Wear
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.49 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Field-Tested
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Field-Tested
$0.47 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Minimal Wear
$0.77 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 55M 47S //TOTAL COST $4.20 //ASK PRICE EV $5.36 //BID PRICE EV $4.76 //ASK PROFIT $1.16 (+27.6%) //BID PROFIT $0.56 (+13.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 40.0% //BEST CASE $15.94 //VOLATILITY +107.2% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
13.3%
$15.94
+$11.74
+279.6%
$14.54
+$10.34
+246.2%
$1.40
8.8%
—
BIG WIN
13.3%
$6.72
+$2.52
+60.0%
$6.21
+$2.01
+47.9%
$0.51
7.6%
—
WIN
13.3%
$5.91
+$1.71
+40.8%
$5.14
+$0.94
+22.4%
$0.77
13.1%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$4.11
-$0.09
-2.1%
$3.61
-$0.59
-14.0%
$0.50
12.2%
—
LOSS
12.0%
$2.79
-$1.41
-33.6%
$2.32
-$1.88
-44.8%
$0.47
16.8%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$2.19
-$2.01
-47.9%
$1.74
-$2.46
-58.6%
$0.45
20.4%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.91
-$2.29
-54.5%
$1.63
-$2.57
-61.2%
$0.28
14.7%
—
NUKE
12.0%
$1.90
-$2.30
-54.8%
$1.63
-$2.57
-61.2%
$0.27
14.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1487475,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 15.9415,
"optimistic_value": 15.91,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 14.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:19:07.329445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1328811,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 6.721,
"optimistic_value": 6.49,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 6.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:50:49.164092Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.11899799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 5.914000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 5.9,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 5.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:37:03.298221Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.19833,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 2.787,
"optimistic_value": 2.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 2.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:10:34.264440Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.19833,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 2.1870000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 1.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T21:44:11.833560Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.19833,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 4.111,
"optimistic_value": 3.95,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:18:22.267196Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.19833,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 1.911,
"optimistic_value": 1.89,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:43:23.689352Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.19833,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 1.8975,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 1.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:50:30.481551Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_014d07a746ae57b59bf8386b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "523123888072505314",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:41.859923Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "512990789044719455",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:41.859923Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-40743fbc40a8",
"listing_id": "516368436281402378",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Fragment",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-40743fbc40a8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:41.859923Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "508487136897280826",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:59:03.819660Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "490472790737729319",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:45:48.970083Z"
},
{
"price": 0.49,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "523123888072748674",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:45:48.970083Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "516368488725524570",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:57:05.265099Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "525375688036290175",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Field-Tested)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:57:05.265099Z"
},
{
"price": 0.47,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "520872088105717584",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:58:39.391496Z"
},
{
"price": 0.77,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "501731789730685373",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:53:45.975803Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:6+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Electrum 12.0% $7.00 Glitched Paint 13.3% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.91 Firebreathing 12.0% $5.02 Amberline 12.0% $3.26 | $15.94 +167.9% | $6.42 +7.8% | 38.7% | +62.0% | $5.95 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Mulberry 13.3% $33.42 Electrum 12.0% $19.50 Glitched Paint 13.3% $17.13 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $16.98 Firebreathing 12.0% $12.97 Galigator 12.0% $11.31 | $33.42 +103.9% | $16.67 +1.7% | 52.0% | +40.2% | $16.39 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.91 Electrum 4.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 4.0% $2.79 Galigator 4.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +154.3% | $8.23 +31.2% | 53.3% | +73.0% | $6.27 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.91 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +176.3% | $7.54 +30.7% | 70.0% | +79.2% | $5.77 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.91 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +240.6% | $6.10 +30.3% | 50.0% | +94.0% | $4.68 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.91 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +204.8% | $6.81 +30.1% | 60.0% | +86.5% | $5.23 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.91 Electrum 2.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 2.0% $2.79 Galigator 2.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +131.7% | $8.83 +28.4% | 30.0% | +66.8% | $6.88 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $6.72 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.91 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +321.7% | $4.66 +23.4% | 44.0% | +101.4% | $3.78 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 6.7% $7.07 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $5.91 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +370.3% | $3.98 +17.3% | 36.0% | +98.6% | $3.39 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 3.3% $5.01 Electrum 18.0% $4.11 Glitched Paint 3.3% $2.92 Firebreathing 18.0% $2.79 Galigator 18.0% $2.19 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $2.14 | $5.01 +109.5% | $2.65 +10.7% | 42.7% | +33.1% | $2.39 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  30.0% $35.39 Nouveau Rouge  10.0% $21.36 Deathgaze  30.0% $9.69 Kintsugi  30.0% $9.22 | $35.39 +121.9% | $18.42 +15.5% | 40.0% | +73.0% | $15.95 | — |