The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Zubastick
1x $0.83
RMX
2x $0.93
Bock Blocks
3x $1.53
Blush Pour
1x $1.67
Rose Hex
2x $1.80
Shredded
1x $2.18
↓
Possible Outputs
Mulberry
13.3% $33.42
Electrum
12.0% $19.50
Glitched Paint
13.3% $17.09
Bleeding Edge
13.3% $16.98
Firebreathing
12.0% $12.97
Galigator
12.0% $11.25
Max Win
$33.42 (+107.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$16.66 (+3.5%)
Win %
52.0%
Volatility
+45.7%
Cost
$16.09
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $16.09
Ask Price EV $16.66 (+3.5%)
Bid Price EV $15.76 (-2.0%)
Ask Profit $0.57 (+3.5%)
Bid Profit $-0.33 (-2.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.90 (+5.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.57
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.33
Risk
Win Probability 52.0%
Loss Probability 48.0%
Best Case $33.42 (+107.7%)
Worst Case $9.90 (-38.5%)
Volatility +45.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 36.0%
Avg Win +$5.71
Avg Loss -$5.00
Bottom 5% Outcome $9.90 (-38.5%)
Std Dev $7.35
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 15m
Oldest Output Price 146h 45m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Zubastick
—
Minimal Wear
$0.83 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$0.93 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | RMX
—
Minimal Wear
$0.94 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.14 Float: HIDDEN
M249 | Bock Blocks
—
Factory New
$2.21 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 56M 05S //TOTAL COST $16.09 //ASK PRICE EV $16.66 //BID PRICE EV $15.76 //ASK PROFIT $0.57 (+3.5%) //BID PROFIT $-0.33 (-2.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 52.0% //BEST CASE $33.42 //VOLATILITY +45.7% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
13.3%
$33.42
+$17.33
+107.7%
$31.48
+$15.39
+95.6%
$1.94
5.8%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$19.50
+$3.41
+21.2%
$17.32
+$1.23
+7.6%
$2.18
11.2%
—
SMALL WIN
13.3%
$17.09
+$1.00
+6.2%
$16.69
+$0.60
+3.7%
$0.40
2.3%
—
SMALL WIN
13.3%
$16.98
+$0.89
+5.5%
$16.48
+$0.39
+2.4%
$0.50
2.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$12.97
-$3.12
-19.4%
$11.57
-$4.52
-28.1%
$1.40
10.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$11.25
-$4.84
-30.1%
$10.70
-$5.39
-33.5%
$0.55
4.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$10.24
-$5.85
-36.4%
$10.09
-$6.00
-37.3%
$0.15
1.4%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.0%
$9.90
-$6.19
-38.5%
$9.86
-$6.23
-38.7%
$0.04
0.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-37|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0523875,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.0467995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 17.088,
"optimistic_value": 16.92,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:47:39.746801Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.041909999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2bcac1c42296",
"realistic_value": 12.967,
"optimistic_value": 12.89,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing",
"conservative_value": 11.57,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T13:05:51.443586Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2bcac1c42296.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8571b4f29f98",
"realistic_value": 11.2525,
"optimistic_value": 11.2,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Galigator",
"conservative_value": 10.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Galigator (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:47:30.615510Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8571b4f29f98.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62ecfa87b86d",
"realistic_value": 19.4975,
"optimistic_value": 19.34,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum",
"conservative_value": 17.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:01:57.497142Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62ecfa87b86d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-55d44f236355",
"realistic_value": 10.237,
"optimistic_value": 10.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Amberline",
"conservative_value": 10.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Amberline (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:47:35.151201Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55d44f236355.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.12,
"output_float": 0.06985,
"output_skin_id": "skin-36e373c7de1c",
"realistic_value": 9.897,
"optimistic_value": 9.89,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign",
"conservative_value": 9.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dead Hand Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Urban Sovereign (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:50:22.102006Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-36e373c7de1c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_014d07a746ae57b59bf8386b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.83,
"skin_id": "skin-ca4c3950bda2",
"listing_id": "632334745617362111",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Zubastick (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Zubastick",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ca4c3950bda2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:55:29.743379Z"
},
{
"price": 0.93,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "526501587737946185",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:55:09.445620Z"
},
{
"price": 0.94,
"skin_id": "skin-fb5805d13a5e",
"listing_id": "527627435179257020",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | RMX (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | RMX",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fb5805d13a5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:55:09.445620Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "523123888072436950",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:52:46.088069Z"
},
{
"price": 2.14,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "630083017705272354",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:52:46.088069Z"
},
{
"price": 2.21,
"skin_id": "skin-526e890d5739",
"listing_id": "502857637418052784",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-37",
"market_hash_name": "M249 | Bock Blocks (Factory New)",
"name": "M249 | Bock Blocks",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-526e890d5739.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:52:46.088069Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "505109323870506140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:53:08.315351Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "521997988016302494",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:18.744104Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "500605889841403967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:18.744104Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "490472790737776695",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:00:16.810613Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-37:6+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:4"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.91 Electrum 12.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.79 Galigator 12.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +270.7% | $5.41 +25.8% | 40.0% | +97.3% | $4.30 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $7.17 Electrum 12.0% $7.00 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.91 Firebreathing 12.0% $5.02 Galigator 12.0% $3.28 | $15.94 +165.7% | $6.47 +7.9% | 38.7% | +61.4% | $6.00 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Mulberry 13.3% $5.01 Electrum 12.0% $3.09 Glitched Paint 13.3% $2.92 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $2.20 Firebreathing 12.0% $2.02 Galigator 12.0% $1.98 | $5.01 +108.6% | $2.54 +5.8% | 38.7% | +40.6% | $2.40 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.65 Electrum 8.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 8.0% $2.79 Galigator 8.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +202.5% | $6.78 +28.7% | 60.0% | +86.1% | $5.27 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.01 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.65 Electrum 2.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 2.0% $2.79 Galigator 2.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +130.7% | $8.83 +27.8% | 60.0% | +66.7% | $6.91 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.65 Electrum 4.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 4.0% $2.79 Galigator 4.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +148.3% | $8.18 +27.4% | 53.3% | +71.9% | $6.42 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.65 Electrum 6.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 6.0% $2.79 Galigator 6.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +171.6% | $7.48 +27.3% | 46.7% | +78.4% | $5.87 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.65 Electrum 10.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 10.0% $2.79 Galigator 10.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +231.4% | $6.07 +26.1% | 50.0% | +91.7% | $4.81 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×7+The Radiant Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 10.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 10.0% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 10.0% $5.91 Electrum 14.0% $4.11 Firebreathing 14.0% $2.79 Galigator 14.0% $2.19 | $15.94 +314.1% | $4.68 +21.6% | 44.0% | +100.2% | $3.85 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×8+The Radiant Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 6.7% $5.01 Electrum 16.0% $4.11 Glitched Paint 6.7% $2.92 Firebreathing 16.0% $2.79 Galigator 16.0% $2.19 Bleeding Edge 6.7% $2.13 | $5.01 +111.2% | $2.68 +13.1% | 45.3% | +36.6% | $2.37 | — |
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 3.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 3.3% $7.17 Electrum 18.0% $7.00 Bleeding Edge 3.3% $5.65 Firebreathing 18.0% $5.02 Galigator 18.0% $3.38 | $15.94 +256.6% | $4.88 +9.3% | 46.0% | +52.4% | $4.47 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dead Hand Collection ×9+The Radiant Collection ×1 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested | Crane Flight  30.0% $35.39 Nouveau Rouge  10.0% $21.36 Deathgaze  30.0% $10.22 Kintsugi  30.0% $9.69 | $35.39 +123.6% | $18.73 +18.3% | 40.0% | +72.1% | $15.83 | — |