The Fracture Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Runic
3x $1.61
2A2F
3x $2.68
Late Night Transit
2x $2.87
Green Line
1x $3.11
Run Run Run
1x $3.52
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
23.3% $64.86
Derailment
23.3% $44.39
Charged Up
23.3% $22.78
Allure
6.0% $1.58
Monster Call
6.0% $1.56
Brother
6.0% $1.54
Max Win
$64.86 (+139.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$31.24 (+15.5%)
Win %
46.7%
Volatility
+89.5%
Cost
$27.06
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $27.06
Ask Price EV $31.24 (+15.5%)
Bid Price EV $29.50 (+9.0%)
Ask Profit $4.18 (+15.5%)
Bid Profit $2.44 (+9.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.74 (+6.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$4.18
Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.44
Risk
Win Probability 46.7%
Loss Probability 53.3%
Best Case $64.86 (+139.7%)
Worst Case $1.26 (-95.4%)
Volatility +89.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$27.57
Avg Loss -$16.28
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.26 (-95.4%)
Std Dev $24.23
Avg Norm Float 0.0956
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 148h 55m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Factory New
$1.61 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Factory New
$1.62 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Factory New
$1.63 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
$2.68 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
$2.83 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$2.87 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Minimal Wear
$3.11 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Run Run Run
—
Minimal Wear
$3.52 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
$4.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 36M 23S //TOTAL COST $27.06 //ASK PRICE EV $31.24 //BID PRICE EV $29.50 //ASK PROFIT $4.18 (+15.5%) //BID PROFIT $2.44 (+9.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 46.7% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +89.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$64.86
+$37.80
+139.7%
$61.61
+$34.55
+127.7%
$3.25
5.0%
—
BIG WIN
23.3%
$44.39
+$17.33
+64.0%
$41.54
+$14.48
+53.5%
$2.85
6.4%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$22.78
-$4.28
-15.8%
$21.50
-$5.56
-20.5%
$1.28
5.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.58
-$25.48
-94.2%
$1.54
-$25.52
-94.3%
$0.04
2.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.56
-$25.50
-94.2%
$1.53
-$25.53
-94.3%
$0.03
2.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.54
-$25.52
-94.3%
$1.53
-$25.53
-94.3%
$0.01
0.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.30
-$25.76
-95.2%
$1.23
-$25.83
-95.5%
$0.07
5.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$1.26
-$25.80
-95.4%
$1.12
-$25.94
-95.9%
$0.14
10.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.066948,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 44.389,
"optimistic_value": 44.13,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 41.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:19.050063Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1499016,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 64.8635,
"optimistic_value": 64.79,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 61.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.09564,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 22.78,
"optimistic_value": 22.78,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 21.5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:23.672893Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.07651200000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 1.297,
"optimistic_value": 1.29,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 1.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:33:48.507758Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09564,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 1.5775000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.56,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 1.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:33:48.607975Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09564,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 1.5635000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.56,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 1.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:36.534425Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.07651200000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 1.2575,
"optimistic_value": 1.24,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 1.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:24.711040Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.09564,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 1.54,
"optimistic_value": 1.54,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 1.53,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:33.443462Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_013c26d96deb0fe6263d1447",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.61,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "490472790737818491",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:25:49.670661Z"
},
{
"price": 1.62,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "509613089304458811",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:25:49.670661Z"
},
{
"price": 1.63,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "492724590627111633",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:25:49.670661Z"
},
{
"price": 2.68,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "490472843632530255",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:33:48.816177Z"
},
{
"price": 2.83,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "503983589620022527",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:33:48.816177Z"
},
{
"price": 2.87,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "514116741796799358",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:15.455332Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "516368488726730822",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:15.455332Z"
},
{
"price": 3.11,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "512990841907798343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:02.666716Z"
},
{
"price": 3.52,
"skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"listing_id": "500605837397320439",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:23.107359Z"
},
{
"price": 4.19,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "642467916639686441",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:33:48.816177Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:3+collection-set-train-2025:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.68 Charged Up 23.3% $7.55 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Monster Call 6.0% $0.71 Kitbash 6.0% $0.71 | $9.68 +96.3% | $5.89 +19.6% | 70.0% | +61.4% | $4.93 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Charged Up 23.3% $65.07 Whiteout 23.3% $64.86 Derailment 23.3% $44.39 Brother 6.0% $11.42 Allure 6.0% $8.88 Monster Call 6.0% $8.24 | $65.07 +64.8% | $43.14 +9.2% | 70.0% | +52.3% | $39.49 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.68 Charged Up 20.0% $7.55 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Allure 8.0% $0.74 Monster Call 8.0% $0.71 Brother 8.0% $0.70 | $9.68 +133.7% | $5.15 +24.5% | 60.0% | +79.2% | $4.14 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.68 Charged Up 16.7% $7.75 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Monster Call 10.0% $0.71 Kitbash 10.0% $0.71 | $9.68 +170.3% | $4.45 +24.2% | 50.0% | +95.7% | $3.58 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 13.3% $9.67 Charged Up 13.3% $7.55 Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Allure 12.0% $0.74 Monster Call 12.0% $0.71 Kitbash 12.0% $0.70 | $9.67 +216.1% | $3.67 +19.8% | 40.0% | +111.1% | $3.06 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Charged Up 10.0% $65.07 Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Derailment 10.0% $44.39 Brother 14.0% $11.42 Allure 14.0% $8.88 Monster Call 14.0% $8.24 | $65.07 +225.8% | $23.19 +16.1% | 30.0% | +108.9% | $19.97 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Charged Up 6.7% $65.07 Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Derailment 6.7% $44.39 Brother 16.0% $11.42 Allure 16.0% $8.88 Monster Call 16.0% $8.24 | $65.07 +286.2% | $18.20 +8.0% | 20.0% | +114.8% | $16.85 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  25.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  25.0% $294.44 Tooth Fairy  16.7% $27.45 Vogue  16.7% $20.76 Entombed  16.7% $12.19 | $597.10 +228.7% | $232.95 +28.2% | 50.0% | +131.2% | $181.64 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  20.0% $663.30 Printstream  40.0% $69.13 Legion of Anubis  40.0% $57.24 | $663.30 +328.7% | $183.21 +18.4% | 20.0% | +155.2% | $154.73 | — |