The Fracture Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Runic
2x $2.59
Freight
1x $3.41
Late Night Transit
1x $3.00
Green Line
3x $3.11
Run Run Run
1x $3.52
2A2F
2x $4.19
↓
Possible Outputs
Charged Up
23.3% $65.07
Whiteout
23.3% $64.86
Derailment
23.3% $44.39
Brother
6.0% $11.42
Allure
6.0% $8.88
Monster Call
6.0% $8.24
Max Win
$65.07 (+64.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$43.14 (+9.2%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+61.5%
Cost
$39.49
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $39.49
Ask Price EV $43.14 (+9.2%)
Bid Price EV $40.15 (+1.7%)
Ask Profit $3.65 (+9.2%)
Bid Profit $0.66 (+1.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $3.00 (+7.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$3.65
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.66
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $65.07 (+64.8%)
Worst Case $5.55 (-85.9%)
Volatility +61.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$18.62
Avg Loss -$31.27
Bottom 5% Outcome $5.55 (-85.9%)
Std Dev $24.28
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 148h 54m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Factory New
$2.59 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Factory New
$2.91 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Freight
—
Factory New
$3.41 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Minimal Wear
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Minimal Wear
$3.11 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Run Run Run
—
Minimal Wear
$3.52 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
$4.19 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Minimal Wear
$5.00 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
$5.23 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Minimal Wear
$6.53 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 35M 43S //TOTAL COST $39.49 //ASK PRICE EV $43.14 //BID PRICE EV $40.15 //ASK PROFIT $3.65 (+9.2%) //BID PROFIT $0.66 (+1.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $65.07 //VOLATILITY +61.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$65.07
+$25.58
+64.8%
$58.44
+$18.95
+48.0%
$6.63
10.2%
—
BIG WIN
23.3%
$64.86
+$25.37
+64.3%
$61.61
+$22.12
+56.0%
$3.25
5.0%
—
SMALL WIN
23.3%
$44.39
+$4.90
+12.4%
$41.54
+$2.05
+5.2%
$2.85
6.4%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$11.42
-$28.07
-71.1%
$11.24
-$28.25
-71.5%
$0.18
1.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$8.88
-$30.61
-77.5%
$8.83
-$30.66
-77.6%
$0.05
0.5%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$8.24
-$31.25
-79.1%
$8.13
-$31.36
-79.4%
$0.11
1.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$7.01
-$32.48
-82.2%
$6.99
-$32.50
-82.3%
$0.02
0.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$5.55
-$33.94
-85.9%
$5.49
-$34.00
-86.1%
$0.06
1.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.048922999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 44.389,
"optimistic_value": 44.13,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 41.54,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:19.050063Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.1256966,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 64.8635,
"optimistic_value": 64.79,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 61.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.06989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 65.0685,
"optimistic_value": 62.72,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 58.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:20:05.150210Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.055911999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 7.0135,
"optimistic_value": 7.01,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 6.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:27.905231Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 8.876999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 8.87,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 8.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:28:44.511255Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 8.243500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 8.24,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 8.13,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:33:40.028418Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.055911999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 5.5535,
"optimistic_value": 5.55,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 5.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:25:51.136020Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.06989,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 11.424,
"optimistic_value": 11.41,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 11.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:11:28.547933Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_013c26d96deb0fe6263d1447",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.59,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "496102237882527407",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:25:49.670661Z"
},
{
"price": 2.91,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "501731624155155401",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:25:49.670661Z"
},
{
"price": 3.41,
"skin_id": "skin-7e9cf6e60b9f",
"listing_id": "506234592363545460",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Freight (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Freight",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7e9cf6e60b9f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:25.885695Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "516368488726730822",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:17:15.455332Z"
},
{
"price": 3.11,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "512990841907798343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:02.666716Z"
},
{
"price": 3.52,
"skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"listing_id": "500605837397320439",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:14:23.107359Z"
},
{
"price": 4.19,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "642467916639686441",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:33:48.816177Z"
},
{
"price": 5,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "508487189340410930",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:02.666716Z"
},
{
"price": 5.23,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "528753335313592389",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:33:48.816177Z"
},
{
"price": 6.53,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "507361289453385697",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:26:02.666716Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:3+collection-set-train-2025:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.68 Charged Up 23.3% $7.55 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Allure 6.0% $0.74 Monster Call 6.0% $0.71 Kitbash 6.0% $0.71 | $9.68 +96.3% | $5.89 +19.6% | 70.0% | +61.4% | $4.93 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 23.3% $64.86 Derailment 23.3% $44.39 Charged Up 23.3% $22.78 Allure 6.0% $1.58 Monster Call 6.0% $1.56 Brother 6.0% $1.54 | $64.86 +139.7% | $31.24 +15.5% | 46.7% | +80.9% | $27.06 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.68 Charged Up 20.0% $7.55 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Allure 8.0% $0.74 Monster Call 8.0% $0.71 Brother 8.0% $0.70 | $9.68 +133.7% | $5.15 +24.5% | 60.0% | +79.2% | $4.14 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.68 Charged Up 16.7% $7.75 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Allure 10.0% $0.74 Monster Call 10.0% $0.71 Kitbash 10.0% $0.71 | $9.68 +170.3% | $4.45 +24.2% | 50.0% | +95.7% | $3.58 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 13.3% $9.67 Charged Up 13.3% $7.55 Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Allure 12.0% $0.74 Monster Call 12.0% $0.71 Kitbash 12.0% $0.70 | $9.67 +216.1% | $3.67 +19.8% | 40.0% | +111.1% | $3.06 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Charged Up 10.0% $65.07 Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Derailment 10.0% $44.39 Brother 14.0% $11.42 Allure 14.0% $8.88 Monster Call 14.0% $8.24 | $65.07 +225.8% | $23.19 +16.1% | 30.0% | +108.9% | $19.97 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Charged Up 6.7% $65.07 Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Derailment 6.7% $44.39 Brother 16.0% $11.42 Allure 16.0% $8.88 Monster Call 16.0% $8.24 | $65.07 +286.2% | $18.20 +8.0% | 20.0% | +114.8% | $16.85 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  25.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  25.0% $294.44 Tooth Fairy  16.7% $27.45 Vogue  16.7% $20.76 Entombed  16.7% $12.19 | $597.10 +228.7% | $232.95 +28.2% | 50.0% | +131.2% | $181.64 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  20.0% $663.30 Printstream  40.0% $69.13 Legion of Anubis  40.0% $57.24 | $663.30 +328.7% | $183.21 +18.4% | 20.0% | +155.2% | $154.73 | — |