The Fracture Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Ultralight
1x $0.14
Runic
1x $0.15
Mainframe 001
1x $0.16
Late Night Transit
3x $0.50
Green Line
1x $0.58
Run Run Run
2x $0.71
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
23.3% $9.68
Charged Up
23.3% $7.75
Derailment
23.3% $7.13
Allure
6.0% $0.74
Brother
6.0% $0.72
Monster Call
6.0% $0.71
Max Win
$9.68 (+89.7%)
EV (ROI %)
$5.94 (+16.5%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+69.5%
Cost
$5.10
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.10
Ask Price EV $5.94 (+16.5%)
Bid Price EV $5.75 (+12.8%)
Ask Profit $0.84 (+16.5%)
Bid Profit $0.65 (+12.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.19 (+3.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.84
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.65
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $9.68 (+89.7%)
Worst Case $0.67 (-86.8%)
Volatility +69.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 30.0%
Avg Win +$3.09
Avg Loss -$4.39
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.67 (-86.8%)
Std Dev $3.54
Avg Norm Float 0.3398
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 16h 58m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Ultralight
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Runic
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Mainframe 001
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Run Run Run
—
Field-Tested
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Run Run Run
—
Field-Tested
$0.72 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Field-Tested
$0.74 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Field-Tested
$0.89 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 28M 48S //TOTAL COST $5.10 //ASK PRICE EV $5.94 //BID PRICE EV $5.75 //ASK PROFIT $0.84 (+16.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.65 (+12.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $9.68 //VOLATILITY +69.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
23.3%
$9.68
+$4.58
+89.7%
$9.66
+$4.56
+89.4%
$0.02
0.2%
—
BIG WIN
23.3%
$7.75
+$2.65
+52.0%
$7.75
+$2.65
+52.0%
$0.00
0.0%
—
WIN
23.3%
$7.13
+$2.03
+39.8%
$6.40
+$1.30
+25.5%
$0.73
10.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.74
-$4.36
-85.5%
$0.69
-$4.41
-86.5%
$0.05
6.4%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.72
-$4.38
-85.8%
$0.66
-$4.44
-87.1%
$0.06
8.8%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.71
-$4.39
-86.0%
$0.69
-$4.41
-86.5%
$0.02
3.3%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.70
-$4.40
-86.2%
$0.64
-$4.46
-87.5%
$0.06
9.1%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$0.67
-$4.43
-86.8%
$0.64
-$4.46
-87.5%
$0.03
5.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.23788799999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 7.1295,
"optimistic_value": 7.07,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 6.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:25.278030Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.37944959999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 9.677,
"optimistic_value": 9.67,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 9.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:09:02.135251Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.33984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 7.75,
"optimistic_value": 7.75,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 7.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:13:49.252133Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.271872,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 0.704,
"optimistic_value": 0.69,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:22:36.629064Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.33984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 0.737,
"optimistic_value": 0.73,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Allure (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T15:35:31.747771Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.33984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 0.7134999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.71,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:32:04.003661Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.271872,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 0.674,
"optimistic_value": 0.66,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 0.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:23:39.616370Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.33984,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 0.7234999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:08:56.836372Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_013c26d96deb0fe6263d1447",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-2c80164190d1",
"listing_id": "497228137695265325",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Ultralight (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Negev | Ultralight",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c80164190d1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:10:16.073860Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-aba458e888aa",
"listing_id": "507361289453234605",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Runic (Field-Tested)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Runic",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aba458e888aa.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:50.622899Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-4bcbe71aa61d",
"listing_id": "520871291122175664",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Mainframe 001",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4bcbe71aa61d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:21:23.597510Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "523123888073168722",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:54.173830Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "503983589619599383",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:17:54.173830Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "518620288314691192",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:44.817995Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"listing_id": "492724590627276585",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:14:17.875869Z"
},
{
"price": 0.72,
"skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"listing_id": "518620288314727228",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:14:17.875869Z"
},
{
"price": 0.74,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "524249787962381811",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Field-Tested)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:14:29.884563Z"
},
{
"price": 0.89,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "524249787962375007",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Field-Tested)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:33:08.399330Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-26:3+collection-set-train-2025:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 23.3% $64.86 Derailment 23.3% $44.79 Charged Up 23.3% $22.78 Allure 6.0% $1.63 Monster Call 6.0% $1.54 Brother 6.0% $1.54 | $64.86 +136.1% | $31.33 +14.1% | 46.7% | +79.8% | $27.47 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 23.3% $64.86 Charged Up 23.3% $63.78 Derailment 23.3% $44.79 Brother 6.0% $11.42 Allure 6.0% $8.88 Monster Call 6.0% $8.24 | $64.86 +61.1% | $42.93 +6.6% | 70.0% | +50.6% | $40.26 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.68 Charged Up 20.0% $7.75 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Allure 8.0% $0.74 Brother 8.0% $0.72 Monster Call 8.0% $0.71 | $9.68 +128.2% | $5.20 +22.6% | 60.0% | +77.7% | $4.24 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 13.3% $9.68 Charged Up 13.3% $7.75 Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Allure 12.0% $0.74 Brother 12.0% $0.72 Monster Call 12.0% $0.71 | $9.68 +212.2% | $3.70 +19.5% | 40.0% | +110.3% | $3.10 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Charged Up 16.7% $63.78 Derailment 16.7% $44.79 Brother 10.0% $11.42 Allure 10.0% $8.88 Monster Call 10.0% $8.24 | $64.86 +130.3% | $33.02 +17.2% | 50.0% | +80.6% | $28.17 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Charged Up 10.0% $63.78 Derailment 10.0% $44.79 Brother 14.0% $11.42 Allure 14.0% $8.88 Monster Call 14.0% $8.24 | $64.86 +215.2% | $23.10 +12.2% | 30.0% | +104.8% | $20.58 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Charged Up 6.7% $63.78 Derailment 6.7% $44.79 Brother 16.0% $11.42 Allure 16.0% $8.88 Monster Call 16.0% $8.24 | $64.86 +278.0% | $18.14 +5.7% | 20.0% | +111.8% | $17.16 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  30.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  30.0% $294.44 Tooth Fairy  13.3% $27.45 Vogue  13.3% $20.85 Entombed  13.3% $12.19 | $597.10 +174.7% | $275.53 +26.7% | 60.0% | +110.0% | $217.39 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear | LongDog  20.0% $663.30 Printstream  40.0% $69.04 Legion of Anubis  40.0% $54.27 | $663.30 +328.7% | $181.99 +17.6% | 20.0% | +155.6% | $154.73 | — |