The Prisma 2 Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Distressed
1x $0.63
Motorized
1x $0.35
Slag
2x $0.38
Irezumi
1x $0.59
Dezastre
3x $0.61
Dark Sigil
1x $0.85
↓
Possible Outputs
Fever Dream
2.0% $18.94
Acid Etched
2.0% $17.96
Darkwing
2.0% $13.75
Etch Lord
18.0% $13.06
Apocalypto
2.0% $11.36
Enforcer
2.0% $11.21
Max Win
$18.94 (+96.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$9.26 (-4.0%)
Win %
28.0%
Volatility
+35.4%
Cost
$9.64
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $9.64
Ask Price EV $9.26 (-4.0%)
Bid Price EV $8.16 (-15.3%)
Ask Profit $-0.38 (-4.0%)
Bid Profit $-1.48 (-15.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.10 (+11.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.38
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.48
Risk
Win Probability 28.0%
Loss Probability 72.0%
Best Case $18.94 (+96.4%)
Worst Case $4.14 (-57.1%)
Volatility +35.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 18.0%
Avg Win +$3.98
Avg Loss -$2.08
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.14 (-57.1%)
Std Dev $3.41
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 30m
Oldest Output Price 152h 2m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
CZ75-Auto | Distressed
—
Minimal Wear
$0.63 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Motorized
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Minimal Wear
$0.59 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Factory New
$1.51 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.07 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Dezastre
—
Factory New
$2.15 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 39M 10S //TOTAL COST $9.64 //ASK PRICE EV $9.26 //BID PRICE EV $8.16 //ASK PROFIT $-0.38 (-4.0%) //BID PROFIT $-1.48 (-15.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 28.0% //BEST CASE $18.94 //VOLATILITY +35.4% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
2.0%
$18.94
+$9.30
+96.4%
$15.04
+$5.40
+56.0%
$3.90
20.6%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$17.96
+$8.32
+86.3%
$14.21
+$4.57
+47.4%
$3.75
20.9%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$13.75
+$4.11
+42.6%
$11.40
+$1.76
+18.3%
$2.35
17.1%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$13.06
+$3.42
+35.4%
$12.03
+$2.39
+24.8%
$1.03
7.9%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$11.36
+$1.72
+17.8%
$8.88
-$0.76
-7.9%
$2.48
21.8%
—
PAPER WIN EDGE FLOAT
2.0%
$11.21
+$1.57
+16.2%
$8.97
-$0.67
-7.0%
$2.24
20.0%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$9.31
-$0.33
-3.4%
$7.85
-$1.79
-18.6%
$1.46
15.7%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$8.90
-$0.74
-7.7%
$7.77
-$1.87
-19.4%
$1.13
12.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$7.89
-$1.75
-18.2%
$7.43
-$2.21
-22.9%
$0.46
5.8%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$4.14
-$5.50
-57.1%
$3.76
-$5.88
-61.0%
$0.38
9.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 7.8895,
"optimistic_value": 7.83,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 7.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:56.987645Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.046910312499999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 8.897,
"optimistic_value": 8.89,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 7.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:53.653469Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 13.056999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 12.35,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 12.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:41.589744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 9.314,
"optimistic_value": 9.23,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 7.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:45.506580Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.04320880519999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 4.1395,
"optimistic_value": 4.08,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 3.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:10:29.082370Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.06982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 17.957,
"optimistic_value": 17.04,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 14.21,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:25:44.737410Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.06982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 11.2055,
"optimistic_value": 11.09,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 8.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:29.498744Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.06982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 13.746,
"optimistic_value": 13.34,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 11.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T12:00:17.131456Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.05027039999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 18.937,
"optimistic_value": 18.44,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 15.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:39.589633Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.02,
"output_float": 0.06982,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 11.3575,
"optimistic_value": 10.5,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 8.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:08.997509Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ff9fc55d30cde95f166b2a6f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.63,
"skin_id": "skin-9a5ab653ba62",
"listing_id": "510738192173824270",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Distressed (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Distressed",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9a5ab653ba62.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:20:05.048419Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-806137e84f73",
"listing_id": "528753335314258353",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Motorized (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Motorized",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-806137e84f73.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:47.072238Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "508486392212133206",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:16:47.959029Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "493850324808131632",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:16:47.959029Z"
},
{
"price": 0.59,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "625577443252700102",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:16:57.052343Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "515241791654317225",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:02.016840Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "514115891832272466",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:19:21.603800Z"
},
{
"price": 1.51,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "519746022669746780",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:24:37.112782Z"
},
{
"price": 2.07,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "523123940969526586",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:50.758041Z"
},
{
"price": 2.15,
"skin_id": "skin-c176fd51f6b9",
"listing_id": "528753335311947405",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Dezastre (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Dezastre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c176fd51f6b9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:58:50.758041Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-25:1+collection-set-community-33:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Fever Dream 2.0% $8.04 Acid Etched 2.0% $5.54 Etch Lord 18.0% $4.45 Apocalypto 2.0% $4.36 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Darkwing 2.0% $3.78 | $8.04 +175.3% | $3.48 +19.3% | 64.0% | +30.2% | $2.92 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Fever Dream 2.0% $3.39 Etch Lord 18.0% $2.34 Analog Input 18.0% $1.95 Acid Etched 2.0% $1.93 Apocalypto 2.0% $1.66 | $4.19 +105.4% | $2.28 +11.5% | 38.0% | +41.4% | $2.04 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Fever Dream 6.0% $8.04 Acid Etched 6.0% $5.54 Etch Lord 14.0% $4.45 Apocalypto 6.0% $4.36 Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Darkwing 6.0% $3.78 | $8.04 +161.8% | $3.82 +24.4% | 72.0% | +37.7% | $3.07 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Fever Dream 10.0% $8.04 Acid Etched 10.0% $5.54 Etch Lord 10.0% $4.45 Apocalypto 10.0% $4.36 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 Darkwing 10.0% $3.82 | $8.04 +139.2% | $4.16 +23.8% | 60.0% | +39.0% | $3.36 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Kilowatt Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Fever Dream 12.0% $8.04 Acid Etched 12.0% $5.54 Etch Lord 8.0% $4.45 Apocalypto 12.0% $4.36 Block-18 8.0% $4.19 Darkwing 12.0% $3.82 | $8.04 +129.6% | $4.33 +23.6% | 64.0% | +39.0% | $3.50 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Fever Dream 4.0% $8.04 Acid Etched 4.0% $5.54 Etch Lord 16.0% $4.45 Apocalypto 4.0% $4.36 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Darkwing 4.0% $3.82 | $8.04 +170.6% | $3.65 +23.0% | 68.0% | +35.0% | $2.97 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×8+The Kilowatt Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Fever Dream 16.0% $8.04 Acid Etched 16.0% $5.54 Etch Lord 4.0% $4.45 Apocalypto 16.0% $4.36 Block-18 4.0% $4.19 Darkwing 16.0% $3.82 | $8.04 +104.5% | $4.66 +18.7% | 56.0% | +36.7% | $3.93 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  20.0% $23.51 Phantom Disruptor  13.3% $21.16 Jawbreaker  20.0% $14.90 Disco Tech  13.3% $13.93 Justice  13.3% $10.32 Olympus  20.0% $8.69 | $23.51 +71.1% | $15.47 +12.6% | 66.7% | +40.1% | $13.74 | — |