The 2018 Inferno Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Nitro
1x $0.36
Candy Apple
1x $1.00
Acid Dart
2x $0.17
Garter-9
2x $0.20
Polished Malachite
2x $0.29
Mustard Gas
2x $0.80
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
16.0% $10.66
Hand Brake
5.0% $9.30
Check Engine
5.0% $3.85
Converter
5.0% $3.72
Tropical Breeze
16.0% $3.67
Brake Light
5.0% $1.75
Max Win
$10.66 (+109.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.97 (-22.1%)
Win %
21.0%
Volatility
+66.9%
Cost
$5.10
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.10
Ask Price EV $3.97 (-22.1%)
Bid Price EV $3.70 (-27.4%)
Ask Profit $-1.13 (-22.1%)
Bid Profit $-1.40 (-27.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.27 (+5.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.13
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.40
Risk
Win Probability 21.0%
Loss Probability 79.0%
Best Case $10.66 (+109.0%)
Worst Case $1.53 (-69.9%)
Volatility +66.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 74.0%
Avg Win +$5.24
Avg Loss -$2.82
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.53 (-69.9%)
Std Dev $3.41
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 17m
Oldest Output Price 116h 19m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Candy Apple
—
Factory New
$1.00 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Factory New
$0.53 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$1.03 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 34M 10S //TOTAL COST $5.10 //ASK PRICE EV $3.97 //BID PRICE EV $3.70 //ASK PROFIT $-1.13 (-22.1%) //BID PROFIT $-1.40 (-27.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 21.0% //BEST CASE $10.66 //VOLATILITY +66.9% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.0%
$10.66
+$5.56
+109.0%
$9.81
+$4.71
+92.4%
$0.85
8.0%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
5.0%
$9.30
+$4.20
+82.3%
$9.06
+$3.96
+77.6%
$0.24
2.6%
—
LOSS
5.0%
$3.85
-$1.25
-24.4%
$3.65
-$1.45
-28.4%
$0.20
5.3%
—
LOSS
5.0%
$3.72
-$1.38
-27.0%
$3.61
-$1.49
-29.2%
$0.11
3.0%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$3.67
-$1.43
-28.0%
$3.64
-$1.46
-28.6%
$0.03
0.8%
—
NUKE
5.0%
$1.75
-$3.35
-65.7%
$1.66
-$3.44
-67.5%
$0.09
5.1%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.57
-$3.53
-69.2%
$1.28
-$3.82
-74.9%
$0.29
18.6%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.56
-$3.54
-69.4%
$1.27
-$3.83
-75.1%
$0.29
18.6%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.53
-$3.57
-69.9%
$1.52
-$3.58
-70.2%
$0.01
0.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.052425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 10.66,
"optimistic_value": 10.66,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 9.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:10.267254Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.047532000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 1.5335,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 1.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:14.608065Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.04194,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.572,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:39.344613Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.03844500000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.04194,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.5594999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.5,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:05:57.658360Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.027960000000000002,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff8258cd7dac",
"realistic_value": 3.722,
"optimistic_value": 3.68,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Converter",
"conservative_value": 3.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Converter (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:25.150909Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff8258cd7dac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c0a577a1a5b2",
"realistic_value": 9.298,
"optimistic_value": 9.2,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake",
"conservative_value": 9.06,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T07:51:31.434942Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0a577a1a5b2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.005592000000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1e77412769d",
"realistic_value": 1.75,
"optimistic_value": 1.75,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light",
"conservative_value": 1.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:59.143513Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1e77412769d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.04194,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a2c7bfcb6607",
"realistic_value": 3.8535,
"optimistic_value": 3.85,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Check Engine",
"conservative_value": 3.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Check Engine (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:03:41.764348Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a2c7bfcb6607.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_fef373b579893dd7c79fd083",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "493850490549509068",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:23.270185Z"
},
{
"price": 1,
"skin_id": "skin-505c66da36c8",
"listing_id": "490472738290883007",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Candy Apple",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-505c66da36c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:03:39.279269Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "515242423037531833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:51.377801Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "492724590626520081",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:17:22.919721Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-6467891391e9",
"listing_id": "494976338033140098",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6467891391e9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:04:31.249530Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-6467891391e9",
"listing_id": "507361289452005421",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6467891391e9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:04:31.249530Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "652601015910513612",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:11:06.001695Z"
},
{
"price": 0.53,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "502857689862568636",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:10:58.793078Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "502857689861815552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:22.755478Z"
},
{
"price": 1.03,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "525375688036608451",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:22.755478Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-inferno-2:2+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Hand Brake 5.0% $2.00 Check Engine 5.0% $2.00 Converter 5.0% $1.91 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $1.82 Brake Light 5.0% $1.75 | $4.61 +271.8% | $1.61 +29.8% | 52.0% | +97.7% | $1.24 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 16.0% $4.61 Check Engine 5.0% $3.85 Converter 5.0% $3.72 Tropical Breeze 16.0% $3.67 Hand Brake 5.0% $2.70 Brake Light 5.0% $1.75 | $4.61 +119.5% | $2.50 +19.0% | 47.0% | +50.6% | $2.10 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 18.0% $4.61 Hand Brake 2.5% $2.00 Check Engine 2.5% $1.98 Converter 2.5% $1.91 Tropical Breeze 18.0% $1.82 Brake Light 2.5% $1.75 | $4.61 +284.2% | $1.57 +30.9% | 46.0% | +108.2% | $1.20 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 14.0% $4.61 Check Engine 7.5% $2.01 Hand Brake 7.5% $2.00 Converter 7.5% $1.91 Tropical Breeze 14.0% $1.82 Brake Light 7.5% $1.75 | $4.61 +246.6% | $1.65 +24.0% | 58.0% | +84.3% | $1.33 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 12.0% $4.61 Hand Brake 10.0% $2.00 Check Engine 10.0% $2.00 Converter 10.0% $1.91 Tropical Breeze 12.0% $1.82 Brake Light 10.0% $1.75 | $4.61 +229.3% | $1.69 +20.5% | 64.0% | +73.3% | $1.40 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Converter 12.5% $3.70 Hand Brake 12.5% $2.00 Check Engine 12.5% $1.98 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $1.82 Brake Light 12.5% $1.75 | $4.61 +176.0% | $1.95 +16.5% | 70.0% | +62.8% | $1.67 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Hand Brake 15.0% $2.00 Converter 15.0% $1.91 Brake Light 15.0% $1.75 Check Engine 15.0% $1.65 Wintergreen 8.0% $1.53 Tropical Breeze 8.0% $0.79 | $2.00 +75.7% | $1.32 +16.0% | 68.0% | +38.3% | $1.14 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×8+The Boreal Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Vino Primo  26.7% $55.48 Fade  26.7% $50.33 Safety Net  26.7% $35.52 Sheet Lightning  10.0% $17.66 Glockingbird  10.0% $11.95 | $55.48 +46.1% | $40.65 +7.1% | 53.3% | +39.6% | $37.97 | — |