The Sport & Field Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Cold Cell
1x $0.41
Tiger Stencil
1x $1.35
Banana Leaf
4x $0.17
XoooM
2x $0.34
Picnic
2x $0.58
↓
Possible Outputs
Yorkshire
5.0% $6.73
Fraise Crane
20.0% $6.16
Alpine Camo
5.0% $5.18
Zeno
5.0% $3.65
Small Game
5.0% $3.64
Sky Mandala
20.0% $3.51
Max Win
$6.73 (-0.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.81 (-43.8%)
Win %
0.0%
Volatility
+23.6%
Cost
$6.78
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $6.78
Ask Price EV $3.81 (-43.8%)
Bid Price EV $3.71 (-45.3%)
Ask Profit $-2.97 (-43.8%)
Bid Profit $-3.07 (-45.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.10 (+1.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.97
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.07
Risk
Win Probability 0.00%
Loss Probability 100.0%
Best Case $6.73 (-0.8%)
Worst Case $2.28 (-66.4%)
Volatility +23.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win —
Avg Loss -$2.97
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.28 (-66.4%)
Std Dev $1.60
Avg Norm Float 0.0697
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 4h 40m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
PP-Bizon | Cold Cell
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil
—
Factory New
$1.35 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.85 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$1.18 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 43M 23S //TOTAL COST $6.78 //ASK PRICE EV $3.81 //BID PRICE EV $3.71 //ASK PROFIT $-2.97 (-43.8%) //BID PROFIT $-3.07 (-45.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 0.0% //BEST CASE $6.73 //VOLATILITY +23.6% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
5.0%
$6.73
-$0.05
-0.8%
$6.41
-$0.37
-5.5%
$0.32
4.7%
—
LOSS
20.0%
$6.16
-$0.62
-9.2%
$6.12
-$0.66
-9.7%
$0.04
0.6%
—
LOSS
5.0%
$5.18
-$1.60
-23.5%
$5.03
-$1.75
-25.8%
$0.15
3.0%
—
NUKE
5.0%
$3.65
-$3.13
-46.2%
$3.31
-$3.47
-51.2%
$0.34
9.3%
—
NUKE
5.0%
$3.64
-$3.14
-46.3%
$3.28
-$3.50
-51.6%
$0.36
9.9%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$3.51
-$3.27
-48.3%
$3.42
-$3.36
-49.6%
$0.09
2.5%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$2.31
-$4.47
-65.9%
$2.25
-$4.53
-66.8%
$0.06
2.7%
—
NUKE
20.0%
$2.28
-$4.50
-66.4%
$2.25
-$4.53
-66.8%
$0.03
1.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-realism-camo|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.045330999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.1579999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:00.132495Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.04881799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.507,
"optimistic_value": 3.5,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:20.678258Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.04881799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.2805,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:19.990067Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2,
"output_float": 0.0460284,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.3135,
"optimistic_value": 2.31,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:19.361827Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.06974,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ad8878d8dfca",
"realistic_value": 6.7250000000000005,
"optimistic_value": 6.69,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Yorkshire",
"conservative_value": 6.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Yorkshire (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:14:00.763545Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad8878d8dfca.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.04881799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c97106696572",
"realistic_value": 3.64,
"optimistic_value": 3.64,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Small Game",
"conservative_value": 3.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Small Game (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:23:15.924342Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c97106696572.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.04881799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6aaf237dc6ae",
"realistic_value": 3.6485,
"optimistic_value": 3.61,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Zeno",
"conservative_value": 3.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Zeno (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:23:42.780123Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6aaf237dc6ae.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.0474232,
"output_skin_id": "skin-7d2a2ccef9f1",
"realistic_value": 5.184,
"optimistic_value": 5.17,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Alpine Camo",
"conservative_value": 5.03,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Sport & Field Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Alpine Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:07:22.106073Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7d2a2ccef9f1.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f770627139bda8f15f2e8039",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-578fd8494dd0",
"listing_id": "524249787962335551",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Cold Cell (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Cold Cell",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-578fd8494dd0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:24:02.688718Z"
},
{
"price": 1.35,
"skin_id": "skin-f4f7b9b303a2",
"listing_id": "491598638254266758",
"collection_id": "collection-set-realism-camo",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Tiger Stencil",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f4f7b9b303a2.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:21:20.163288Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "507361237008908833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:14:42.447545Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "493850490550904104",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:12:14.012849Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "490472790738068475",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:12:16.761849Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "509613089305422567",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:12:16.761849Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "496102237884292343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:34.493790Z"
},
{
"price": 0.85,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "635711906863070477",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:12:16.761849Z"
},
{
"price": 1.18,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "496102237884286583",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:11:34.493790Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "518620235867474188",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T08:12:14.012849Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-realism-camo:2+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Sport & Field Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 20.0% $6.16 Alpine Camo 5.0% $5.18 Zeno 5.0% $3.65 Small Game 5.0% $3.64 Sky Mandala 20.0% $3.51 Earth Mandala 20.0% $2.31 | $6.16 +110.2% | $3.55 +21.3% | 55.0% | +45.8% | $2.93 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Sport & Field Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 10.0% $2.93 Sky Mandala 10.0% $1.65 Alpine Camo 15.0% $1.45 Small Game 15.0% $1.23 Zeno 15.0% $1.21 Warm Blooded 10.0% $1.16 | $2.93 +150.8% | $1.37 +17.5% | 65.0% | +43.8% | $1.17 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Sport & Field Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Exothermic  30.0% $13.81 Sleeping Potion  30.0% $11.82 Arctic Tri-Tone  13.3% $8.70 Crimson Foil  13.3% $8.63 Heat Treated  13.3% $6.46 | $13.81 +53.8% | $10.86 +21.0% | 60.0% | +28.9% | $8.98 | — |