The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Tom Cat
1x $0.50
Blue Ply
1x $1.06
Prototype
1x $1.81
Blush Pour
3x $1.67
Shredded
2x $1.78
Rose Hex
2x $1.80
↓
Possible Outputs
Acid Etched
6.0% $34.68
Mulberry
23.3% $33.42
Bleeding Edge
23.3% $16.98
Glitched Paint
23.3% $16.89
Enforcer
6.0% $9.50
Darkwing
6.0% $9.42
Max Win
$34.68 (+52.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$19.96 (-12.0%)
Win %
29.3%
Volatility
+41.3%
Cost
$22.69
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $22.69
Ask Price EV $19.96 (-12.0%)
Bid Price EV $19.10 (-15.8%)
Ask Profit $-2.73 (-12.0%)
Bid Profit $-3.59 (-15.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.85 (+3.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.73
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.59
Risk
Win Probability 29.3%
Loss Probability 70.7%
Best Case $34.68 (+52.8%)
Worst Case $8.46 (-62.7%)
Volatility +41.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.7%
Avg Win +$10.99
Avg Loss -$8.42
Bottom 5% Outcome $8.46 (-62.7%)
Std Dev $9.38
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 146h 46m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
AUG | Tom Cat
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | Blue Ply
—
Minimal Wear
$1.06 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Prototype
—
Factory New
$1.81 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Minimal Wear
$1.67 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$1.78 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.80 Float: HIDDEN
M4A1-S | Rose Hex
—
Factory New
$1.86 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Shredded
—
Factory New
$2.18 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
$4.95 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Blush Pour
—
Factory New
$5.08 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 21M 09S //TOTAL COST $22.69 //ASK PRICE EV $19.96 //BID PRICE EV $19.10 //ASK PROFIT $-2.73 (-12.0%) //BID PROFIT $-3.59 (-15.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 29.3% //BEST CASE $34.68 //VOLATILITY +41.3% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$34.68
+$11.98
+52.8%
$32.11
+$9.42
+41.5%
$2.56
7.4%
—
WIN
23.3%
$33.42
+$10.73
+47.3%
$31.48
+$8.79
+38.7%
$1.94
5.8%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$16.98
-$5.71
-25.2%
$16.48
-$6.21
-27.4%
$0.50
2.9%
—
LOSS
23.3%
$16.89
-$5.80
-25.6%
$16.69
-$6.00
-26.4%
$0.20
1.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$9.50
-$13.19
-58.1%
$8.94
-$13.75
-60.6%
$0.56
5.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$9.42
-$13.27
-58.5%
$9.24
-$13.45
-59.3%
$0.18
1.9%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$8.94
-$13.76
-60.6%
$8.74
-$13.95
-61.5%
$0.20
2.2%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$8.46
-$14.23
-62.7%
$7.96
-$14.73
-64.9%
$0.50
5.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-25|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.052425,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2d7d76a0b8b5",
"realistic_value": 33.418,
"optimistic_value": 33.25,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry",
"conservative_value": 31.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mulberry (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:15:33.431446Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2d7d76a0b8b5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.04683300000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-75c237bdd4fc",
"realistic_value": 16.887999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 16.79,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint",
"conservative_value": 16.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Glitched Paint (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:47:39.746801Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75c237bdd4fc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.2333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.04194,
"output_skin_id": "skin-8e15b1a9e945",
"realistic_value": 16.977,
"optimistic_value": 16.83,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge",
"conservative_value": 16.48,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T12:21:33.371188Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8e15b1a9e945.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-dd7837484577",
"realistic_value": 34.675,
"optimistic_value": 34.5,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched",
"conservative_value": 32.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:31.771580Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd7837484577.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-803029f01b68",
"realistic_value": 9.503,
"optimistic_value": 9.44,
"output_full_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer",
"conservative_value": 8.94,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:53:04.940069Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-803029f01b68.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d00c49e52bd9",
"realistic_value": 9.4155,
"optimistic_value": 9.37,
"output_full_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing",
"conservative_value": 9.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:44:50.817535Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d00c49e52bd9.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.050328,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e5f08d307bdd",
"realistic_value": 8.4635,
"optimistic_value": 8.39,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream",
"conservative_value": 7.96,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:50:19.070936Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e5f08d307bdd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0699,
"output_skin_id": "skin-db4ae843fbd7",
"realistic_value": 8.935,
"optimistic_value": 8.76,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto",
"conservative_value": 8.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Prisma 2 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Apocalypto (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:43:20.291930Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-db4ae843fbd7.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f6aa8c91f9f6b0a989ce3013",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-42cc631beb8c",
"listing_id": "669488905360173675",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Tom Cat",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-42cc631beb8c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:00:07.639718Z"
},
{
"price": 1.06,
"skin_id": "skin-5293f56bb6b8",
"listing_id": "523123091059693018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | Blue Ply",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5293f56bb6b8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:50:42.762818Z"
},
{
"price": 1.81,
"skin_id": "skin-c31f180e6a50",
"listing_id": "490472738292643731",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-25",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Prototype (Factory New)",
"name": "Negev | Prototype",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c31f180e6a50.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:39:58.376251Z"
},
{
"price": 1.67,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "505109323870506140",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:53:08.315351Z"
},
{
"price": 1.78,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "490472790737593455",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:00:16.810613Z"
},
{
"price": 1.8,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "521997988016302494",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:18.744104Z"
},
{
"price": 1.86,
"skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"listing_id": "500605889841403967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:45:18.744104Z"
},
{
"price": 2.18,
"skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"listing_id": "490472790737776695",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T07:00:16.810613Z"
},
{
"price": 4.95,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "521997822479782266",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:50:35.210026Z"
},
{
"price": 5.08,
"skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"listing_id": "502857524062682488",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:50:35.210026Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-25:3+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 23.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 23.3% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $5.65 Fever Dream 6.0% $3.20 Acid Etched 6.0% $1.01 Darkwing 6.0% $0.98 | $15.94 +194.7% | $7.14 +32.0% | 70.0% | +90.6% | $5.41 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Mulberry 23.3% $33.42 Bleeding Edge 23.3% $16.98 Glitched Paint 23.3% $16.89 Fever Dream 6.0% $8.46 Acid Etched 6.0% $2.37 Darkwing 6.0% $2.29 | $33.42 +116.9% | $16.72 +8.5% | 70.0% | +62.9% | $15.41 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Prisma 2 Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 20.0% $7.01 Bleeding Edge 20.0% $5.65 Fever Dream 8.0% $3.19 Acid Etched 8.0% $1.01 Darkwing 8.0% $0.98 | $15.94 +234.2% | $6.29 +31.9% | 60.0% | +102.8% | $4.77 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 30.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint 30.0% $7.17 Bleeding Edge 30.0% $5.91 Fever Dream 2.0% $3.19 Acid Etched 2.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 2.0% $0.98 | $15.94 +134.8% | $8.85 +30.3% | 60.0% | +68.5% | $6.79 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 26.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 26.7% $7.01 Bleeding Edge 26.7% $5.65 Fever Dream 4.0% $3.19 Acid Etched 4.0% $1.01 Darkwing 4.0% $0.98 | $15.94 +161.3% | $7.91 +29.7% | 53.3% | +79.4% | $6.10 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 16.7% $15.94 Glitched Paint 16.7% $7.01 Bleeding Edge 16.7% $5.91 Fever Dream 10.0% $3.19 Acid Etched 10.0% $1.01 Apocalypto 10.0% $0.98 | $15.94 +261.5% | $5.52 +25.2% | 50.0% | +109.1% | $4.41 | — |
The Prisma 2 Collection ×6+The Radiant Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry 13.3% $15.94 Glitched Paint 13.3% $7.01 Bleeding Edge 13.3% $5.65 Fever Dream 12.0% $3.19 Acid Etched 12.0% $1.01 Darkwing 12.0% $0.98 | $15.94 +311.9% | $4.67 +20.7% | 40.0% | +119.3% | $3.87 | — |