The Achroma Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Aeolian Light
4x $0.25
Grip Tape
1x $0.34
Poplar Thicket
1x $0.13
Gold Leaf
4x $0.16
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
25.0% $5.85
Trace Lock
25.0% $2.24
Sheet Lightning
25.0% $1.71
Glockingbird
25.0% $1.51
Max Win
$5.85 (+143.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.83 (+17.9%)
Win %
25.0%
Volatility
+73.5%
Cost
$2.40
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.40
Ask Price EV $2.83 (+17.9%)
Bid Price EV $2.53 (+5.2%)
Ask Profit $0.43 (+17.9%)
Bid Profit $0.13 (+5.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.30 (+12.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.43
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.13
Risk
Win Probability 25.0%
Loss Probability 75.0%
Best Case $5.85 (+143.8%)
Worst Case $1.51 (-37.0%)
Volatility +73.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$3.45
Avg Loss -$0.58
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.51 (-37.0%)
Std Dev $1.76
Avg Norm Float 0.4488
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 139h 54m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Field-Tested
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Field-Tested
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Gold Leaf
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 54M 53S //TOTAL COST $2.40 //ASK PRICE EV $2.83 //BID PRICE EV $2.53 //ASK PROFIT $0.43 (+17.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.13 (+5.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $5.85 //VOLATILITY +73.5% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
25.0%
$5.85
+$3.45
+143.8%
$4.91
+$2.51
+104.6%
$0.94
16.1%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$2.24
-$0.16
-6.5%
$2.14
-$0.26
-10.8%
$0.10
4.6%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$1.71
-$0.69
-28.6%
$1.58
-$0.82
-34.2%
$0.13
7.8%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$1.51
-$0.89
-37.0%
$1.47
-$0.93
-38.8%
$0.04
2.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.3366225,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 5.850499999999999,
"optimistic_value": 5.77,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 4.91,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:21:53.253669Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.30071610000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 1.5110000000000001,
"optimistic_value": 1.49,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 1.47,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:08:13.959428Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.314181,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 2.243,
"optimistic_value": 2.18,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 2.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:07.632628Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.3366225,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 1.714,
"optimistic_value": 1.7,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 1.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T03:16:00.439567Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f5e4047097751ed067eecb0b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "526501587737062601",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:08.297780Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "516368488724825018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:08.297780Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "507361289452977565",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:34.894634Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "518620288313700148",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:16.323927Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "497228190141529805",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:34.894634Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "508487136897832382",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:57:22.567977Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "503983589619272143",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:42.292112Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "496102290328034879",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:42.292112Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "496102290328703183",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:42.292112Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"listing_id": "514116523133772618",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:42.292112Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 25.0% $5.30 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.59 Glockingbird 25.0% $3.55 | $12.25 +155.6% | $6.42 +34.0% | 50.0% | +71.4% | $4.79 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 25.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.24 Sheet Lightning 25.0% $2.03 Glockingbird 25.0% $1.51 | $6.12 +170.6% | $2.97 +31.6% | 25.0% | +81.1% | $2.26 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 15.0% $5.30 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.59 Glockingbird 15.0% $3.55 | $12.25 +121.8% | $7.22 +30.7% | 35.0% | +67.4% | $5.52 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 30.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.22 Sheet Lightning 20.0% $2.03 Glockingbird 20.0% $1.49 | $6.12 +145.6% | $3.20 +28.7% | 30.0% | +77.2% | $2.49 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 20.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 20.0% $2.22 Sheet Lightning 30.0% $2.03 Glockingbird 30.0% $1.49 | $6.12 +185.8% | $2.72 +27.2% | 40.0% | +80.3% | $2.14 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.59 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.57 | $12.25 +174.6% | $5.61 +25.8% | 65.0% | +64.5% | $4.46 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×8+The Boreal Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 10.0% $5.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.57 Glockingbird 10.0% $3.57 | $12.25 +100.4% | $7.61 +24.5% | 40.0% | +62.3% | $6.11 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Boreal Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 5.0% $5.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.57 Glockingbird 5.0% $3.56 | $12.25 +86.7% | $8.01 +22.0% | 45.0% | +58.6% | $6.56 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 40.0% $5.30 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.59 Glockingbird 40.0% $3.55 | $12.25 +172.7% | $5.22 +16.2% | 60.0% | +55.0% | $4.49 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 5.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 45.0% $5.25 Trace Lock 5.0% $4.57 Glockingbird 45.0% $3.56 | $12.25 +190.2% | $4.81 +13.9% | 55.0% | +44.7% | $4.22 | — |