The Achroma Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Grip Tape
1x $0.99
Creep
1x $1.88
Aeolian Light
2x $1.92
The Daily Deagle
1x $3.00
Poplar Thicket
5x $0.71
↓
Possible Outputs
Breakthrough
25.0% $26.93
Sheet Lightning
25.0% $17.65
Trace Lock
25.0% $15.24
Glockingbird
25.0% $12.00
Max Win
$26.93 (+27.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$17.95 (-15.0%)
Win %
25.0%
Volatility
+26.3%
Cost
$21.12
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $21.12
Ask Price EV $17.95 (-15.0%)
Bid Price EV $17.20 (-18.6%)
Ask Profit $-3.17 (-15.0%)
Bid Profit $-3.92 (-18.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.76 (+3.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$3.17
Bid Slippage Buffer -$3.92
Risk
Win Probability 25.0%
Loss Probability 75.0%
Best Case $26.93 (+27.5%)
Worst Case $12.00 (-43.2%)
Volatility +26.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$5.81
Avg Loss -$6.16
Bottom 5% Outcome $12.00 (-43.2%)
Std Dev $5.56
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 1h 33m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Grip Tape
—
Minimal Wear
$0.99 Float: HIDDEN
AUG | Creep
—
Minimal Wear
$1.88 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$1.92 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Aeolian Light
—
Factory New
$2.00 Float: HIDDEN
Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle
—
Factory New
$3.00 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Minimal Wear
$0.71 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$2.19 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$3.22 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket
—
Factory New
$3.68 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 54M 30S //TOTAL COST $21.12 //ASK PRICE EV $17.95 //BID PRICE EV $17.20 //ASK PROFIT $-3.17 (-15.0%) //BID PROFIT $-3.92 (-18.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $26.93 //VOLATILITY +26.3% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
25.0%
$26.93
+$5.81
+27.5%
$26.63
+$5.51
+26.1%
$0.30
1.1%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$17.65
-$3.47
-16.4%
$17.34
-$3.78
-17.9%
$0.31
1.8%
—
LOSS
25.0%
$15.24
-$5.88
-27.8%
$13.15
-$7.97
-37.7%
$2.09
13.7%
—
NUKE
25.0%
$12.00
-$9.12
-43.2%
$11.66
-$9.46
-44.8%
$0.34
2.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.05244750000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a92d1a70ebc1",
"realistic_value": 26.926499999999997,
"optimistic_value": 26.72,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough",
"conservative_value": 26.63,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Breakthrough (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:41:55.655672Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a92d1a70ebc1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.04685310000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a242e44f6b",
"realistic_value": 11.997,
"optimistic_value": 11.99,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird",
"conservative_value": 11.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Glockingbird (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:03:19.482750Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a242e44f6b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.048951,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9eb900056828",
"realistic_value": 15.2405,
"optimistic_value": 14.81,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock",
"conservative_value": 13.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:07:05.081369Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9eb900056828.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.25,
"output_float": 0.05244750000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-25e2a5c0a7df",
"realistic_value": 17.6525,
"optimistic_value": 17.6,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning",
"conservative_value": 17.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:57:22.053383Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25e2a5c0a7df.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f5e4047097751ed067eecb0b",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.99,
"skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"listing_id": "652600943945535924",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:57:40.970736Z"
},
{
"price": 1.88,
"skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"listing_id": "524248990833803271",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "AUG | Creep",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:22.062356Z"
},
{
"price": 1.92,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "493850490549357652",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:40.993604Z"
},
{
"price": 2,
"skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"listing_id": "520872088106386248",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:40.993604Z"
},
{
"price": 3,
"skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"listing_id": "506235389469302484",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:23.280403Z"
},
{
"price": 0.71,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "509613089303443359",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:08:19.210184Z"
},
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "528753387757030797",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:03:16.406153Z"
},
{
"price": 2.19,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "510738936595002502",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:03:16.406153Z"
},
{
"price": 3.22,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "512990623223766251",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:03:16.406153Z"
},
{
"price": 3.68,
"skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"listing_id": "517493591330950090",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:03:16.406153Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:5+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 25.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 25.0% $5.30 Trace Lock 25.0% $4.59 Glockingbird 25.0% $3.55 | $12.25 +155.6% | $6.42 +34.0% | 50.0% | +71.4% | $4.79 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 25.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.24 Sheet Lightning 25.0% $2.03 Glockingbird 25.0% $1.51 | $6.12 +170.6% | $2.97 +31.6% | 25.0% | +81.1% | $2.26 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Breakthrough 25.0% $5.85 Trace Lock 25.0% $2.24 Sheet Lightning 25.0% $1.71 Glockingbird 25.0% $1.51 | $5.85 +143.8% | $2.83 +17.9% | 25.0% | +73.5% | $2.40 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Boreal Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 35.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 15.0% $5.30 Trace Lock 35.0% $4.59 Glockingbird 15.0% $3.55 | $12.25 +121.8% | $7.22 +30.7% | 35.0% | +67.4% | $5.52 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Boreal Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 30.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 30.0% $2.22 Sheet Lightning 20.0% $2.03 Glockingbird 20.0% $1.49 | $6.12 +145.6% | $3.20 +28.7% | 30.0% | +77.2% | $2.49 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Boreal Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Breakthrough 20.0% $6.12 Trace Lock 20.0% $2.22 Sheet Lightning 30.0% $2.03 Glockingbird 30.0% $1.49 | $6.12 +185.8% | $2.72 +27.2% | 40.0% | +80.3% | $2.14 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×3+The Boreal Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 15.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 35.0% $5.25 Trace Lock 15.0% $4.59 Glockingbird 35.0% $3.57 | $12.25 +174.6% | $5.61 +25.8% | 65.0% | +64.5% | $4.46 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×8+The Boreal Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 40.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 10.0% $5.25 Trace Lock 40.0% $4.57 Glockingbird 10.0% $3.57 | $12.25 +100.4% | $7.61 +24.5% | 40.0% | +62.3% | $6.11 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×9+The Boreal Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 45.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 5.0% $5.25 Trace Lock 45.0% $4.57 Glockingbird 5.0% $3.56 | $12.25 +86.7% | $8.01 +22.0% | 45.0% | +58.6% | $6.56 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 10.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 40.0% $5.30 Trace Lock 10.0% $4.59 Glockingbird 40.0% $3.55 | $12.25 +172.7% | $5.22 +16.2% | 60.0% | +55.0% | $4.49 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×1+The Boreal Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Breakthrough 5.0% $12.25 Sheet Lightning 45.0% $5.25 Trace Lock 5.0% $4.57 Glockingbird 45.0% $3.56 | $12.25 +190.2% | $4.81 +13.9% | 55.0% | +44.7% | $4.22 | — |