The Boreal Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Acid Dart
2x $0.37
Mustard Gas
2x $0.80
Steel Work
1x $0.14
Basket Halftone
1x $0.29
Citric Acid
2x $0.32
Sedimentary
1x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
8.0% $10.66
Coral Bloom
10.0% $4.96
Tropical Breeze
8.0% $3.67
Red Tide
10.0% $3.32
Blush Pour
10.0% $2.21
Arsenic Spill
10.0% $2.18
Max Win
$10.66 (+140.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.16 (-28.7%)
Win %
18.0%
Volatility
+55.2%
Cost
$4.43
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $4.43
Ask Price EV $3.16 (-28.7%)
Bid Price EV $2.99 (-32.4%)
Ask Profit $-1.27 (-28.7%)
Bid Profit $-1.44 (-32.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.17 (+3.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.27
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.44
Risk
Win Probability 18.0%
Loss Probability 82.0%
Best Case $10.66 (+140.6%)
Worst Case $1.53 (-65.4%)
Volatility +55.2%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 74.0%
Avg Win +$3.06
Avg Loss -$2.22
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.53 (-65.4%)
Std Dev $2.45
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 114h 20m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Factory New
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$1.03 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Sedimentary
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 00M 59S //TOTAL COST $4.43 //ASK PRICE EV $3.16 //BID PRICE EV $2.99 //ASK PROFIT $-1.27 (-28.7%) //BID PROFIT $-1.44 (-32.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 18.0% //BEST CASE $10.66 //VOLATILITY +55.2% //
Possible Outputs · 11
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
8.0%
$10.66
+$6.23
+140.6%
$9.81
+$5.38
+121.4%
$0.85
8.0%
—
SMALL WIN
10.0%
$4.96
+$0.53
+12.0%
$4.92
+$0.49
+11.1%
$0.04
0.8%
—
LOSS
8.0%
$3.67
-$0.76
-17.1%
$3.64
-$0.79
-17.8%
$0.03
0.8%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$3.32
-$1.11
-25.1%
$3.29
-$1.14
-25.7%
$0.03
0.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.21
-$2.22
-50.1%
$2.09
-$2.34
-52.8%
$0.12
5.4%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.18
-$2.25
-50.7%
$2.09
-$2.34
-52.8%
$0.09
4.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.84
-$2.59
-58.5%
$1.75
-$2.68
-60.5%
$0.09
4.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.78
-$2.65
-59.7%
$1.77
-$2.66
-60.0%
$0.01
0.8%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.68
-$2.75
-62.1%
$1.27
-$3.16
-71.3%
$0.41
24.3%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.57
-$2.86
-64.5%
$1.28
-$3.15
-71.1%
$0.29
18.6%
—
NUKE
8.0%
$1.53
-$2.90
-65.4%
$1.52
-$2.91
-65.7%
$0.01
0.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.03512723078,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.1835,
"optimistic_value": 2.11,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:10.172394Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.05269081118,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 4.961,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T15:33:54.664938Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.03499,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.84,
"optimistic_value": 1.84,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:30.907557Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.041988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 1.7835,
"optimistic_value": 1.78,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:05:11.124601Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.052485000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 3.317,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 3.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:44.562855Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.09999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.047476601380000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 2.209,
"optimistic_value": 2.16,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:55:32.600548Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.052485000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 10.66,
"optimistic_value": 10.66,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 9.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:10.267254Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.0475864,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 1.5335,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 1.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:03:16.406153Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.041988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.572,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:39.344613Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.038489,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.08,
"output_float": 0.041988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.6769999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.67,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:39.977549Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_f5632884e235d1030b9bb7bb",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "508487189339944010",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:30.088744Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "652601015910513612",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:15:30.088744Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "502857689861815552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:57.285986Z"
},
{
"price": 1.03,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "525375688036608451",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:57.285986Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "518620288313212132",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:00:36.325550Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "519746188257916964",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:27.508322Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "510738989039892790",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:14:09.342197Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "492724424907681777",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:14:09.342197Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-7efe4d3e7779",
"listing_id": "519746188258260332",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Sedimentary (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Sedimentary",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7efe4d3e7779.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:04:56.907162Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "507361123689186349",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:18:56.455466Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:4+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 8.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 8.0% $1.82 Coral Bloom 10.0% $1.36 Red Tide 10.0% $1.04 Arsenic Spill 10.0% $1.01 Blush Pour 10.0% $0.95 | $4.61 +412.2% | $1.21 +34.3% | 56.0% | +109.5% | $0.90 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Wintergreen 8.0% $10.66 Coral Bloom 10.0% $4.96 Tropical Breeze 8.0% $3.67 Red Tide 10.0% $3.32 Blush Pour 10.0% $2.21 Arsenic Spill 10.0% $2.18 | $10.66 +296.3% | $3.16 +17.4% | 36.0% | +83.4% | $2.69 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 10.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 10.0% $1.82 Coral Bloom 8.3% $1.36 Red Tide 8.3% $1.04 Arsenic Spill 8.3% $1.01 Blush Pour 8.3% $0.95 | $4.61 +390.4% | $1.27 +34.6% | 53.3% | +115.0% | $0.94 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×3+The Radiant Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 6.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 6.0% $1.82 Coral Bloom 11.7% $1.36 Red Tide 11.7% $1.04 Arsenic Spill 11.7% $1.01 Blush Pour 11.7% $0.95 | $4.61 +418.0% | $1.16 +30.1% | 58.7% | +97.6% | $0.89 | — |
The Boreal Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Wintergreen 4.0% $4.61 Tropical Breeze 4.0% $1.82 Coral Bloom 13.3% $1.36 Red Tide 13.3% $1.04 Arsenic Spill 13.3% $1.01 Blush Pour 13.3% $0.95 | $4.61 +436.0% | $1.10 +28.2% | 61.3% | +84.3% | $0.86 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Boreal Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Mulberry  20.0% $15.94 Glitched Paint  20.0% $7.05 Bleeding Edge  20.0% $5.58 Sheet Lightning  20.0% $5.25 Glockingbird  20.0% $3.57 | $15.94 +166.6% | $7.48 +25.1% | 40.0% | +73.1% | $5.98 | — |