The Ascent Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Sour Grapes
1x $0.18
Gum Wall Camo
1x $0.41
Leafhopper
2x $0.16
Acid Dart
1x $0.17
Garter-9
2x $0.27
Polished Malachite
1x $0.31
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
16.0% $10.66
Yeti Camo
4.0% $4.46
Tropical Breeze
16.0% $3.67
Mint Fan
4.0% $3.13
Cobalt Paisley
4.0% $2.65
Royal Baroque
4.0% $2.64
Max Win
$10.66 (+239.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.59 (+14.3%)
Win %
36.0%
Volatility
+102.7%
Cost
$3.14
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.14
Ask Price EV $3.59 (+14.3%)
Bid Price EV $3.43 (+9.1%)
Ask Profit $0.45 (+14.3%)
Bid Profit $0.29 (+9.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.16 (+5.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.45
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.29
Risk
Win Probability 36.0%
Loss Probability 64.0%
Best Case $10.66 (+239.5%)
Worst Case $1.29 (-58.9%)
Volatility +102.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 52.0%
Avg Win +$3.72
Avg Loss -$1.39
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.29 (-58.9%)
Std Dev $3.22
Avg Norm Float 0.0929
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 125h 22m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Minimal Wear
$0.27 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite
—
Minimal Wear
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 25M 44S //TOTAL COST $3.14 //ASK PRICE EV $3.59 //BID PRICE EV $3.43 //ASK PROFIT $0.45 (+14.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.29 (+9.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 36.0% //BEST CASE $10.66 //VOLATILITY +102.7% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$10.66
+$7.52
+239.5%
$9.81
+$6.67
+212.4%
$0.85
8.0%
—
WIN
4.0%
$4.46
+$1.32
+42.1%
$4.43
+$1.29
+41.1%
$0.03
0.7%
—
WIN
16.0%
$3.67
+$0.53
+16.9%
$3.64
+$0.50
+15.9%
$0.03
0.8%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$3.13
-$0.01
-0.2%
$3.05
-$0.09
-2.9%
$0.08
2.7%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$2.65
-$0.49
-15.6%
$2.62
-$0.52
-16.6%
$0.03
1.1%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$2.64
-$0.50
-15.9%
$2.62
-$0.52
-16.6%
$0.02
0.8%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$2.01
-$1.13
-35.9%
$1.99
-$1.15
-36.6%
$0.02
1.2%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.57
-$1.57
-50.2%
$1.49
-$1.65
-52.5%
$0.07
4.8%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.53
-$1.61
-51.3%
$1.52
-$1.62
-51.6%
$0.01
0.7%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.29
-$1.85
-58.9%
$1.28
-$1.86
-59.2%
$0.01
0.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.0696375,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 10.66,
"optimistic_value": 10.66,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 9.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:10.267254Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.063138,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 1.53,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 1.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:08:17.267390Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.05571,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.565,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:03.136472Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.0510675,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.05571,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.29,
"optimistic_value": 1.29,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:14.406786Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.05571,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.1345,
"optimistic_value": 3.11,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:50.093370Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.064995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.460500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 4.45,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:09.131172Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.0603525,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.65,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:31.828882Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.05571,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:42.472436Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.05571,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.014,
"optimistic_value": 2,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:13:31.406376Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_edddfca238cc6da3786ea364",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "503983642533018007",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:58:26.830104Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "500605942755879839",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:58:29.461168Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "512990623227020543",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:14:12.300341Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "515242423037531833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:01:27.805286Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "521997988015820706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:14:12.300341Z"
},
{
"price": 0.27,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "511864888985873745",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:08:46.621547Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "523123888072857754",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:08:46.621547Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-6467891391e9",
"listing_id": "642467916640465877",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Polished Malachite",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6467891391e9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:00:38.700536Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "509613142167867027",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:03:39.843100Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "502857689861815552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:31.103435Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:2+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:8"
}Related
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Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate  25.0% $6.94 Sheet Lightning  25.0% $2.03 Glockingbird  25.0% $1.62 Royal Guard  25.0% $1.23 | $6.94 +205.9% | $2.95 +30.2% | 25.0% | +102.2% | $2.27 | — |