The Ascent Collection ×2+The Boreal Collection ×8
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Turquoise Pour
2x $0.37
Leafhopper
1x $0.18
Garter-9
1x $0.18
Tiger Tear
1x $0.34
Marsh
3x $0.35
Acid Dart
1x $0.41
↓
Possible Outputs
Wintergreen
16.0% $10.66
Yeti Camo
4.0% $4.46
Tropical Breeze
16.0% $3.67
Mint Fan
4.0% $3.12
Cobalt Paisley
4.0% $2.65
Royal Baroque
4.0% $2.64
Max Win
$10.66 (+97.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.58 (-33.7%)
Win %
16.0%
Volatility
+59.8%
Cost
$5.40
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.40
Ask Price EV $3.58 (-33.7%)
Bid Price EV $3.43 (-36.5%)
Ask Profit $-1.82 (-33.7%)
Bid Profit $-1.97 (-36.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.16 (+2.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.82
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.97
Risk
Win Probability 16.0%
Loss Probability 84.0%
Best Case $10.66 (+97.4%)
Worst Case $1.29 (-76.1%)
Volatility +59.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$5.26
Avg Loss -$3.17
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.29 (-76.1%)
Std Dev $3.23
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 26m
Oldest Output Price 126h 14m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Leafhopper
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Garter-9
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Tiger Tear
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Acid Dart
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Mustard Gas
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Marsh
—
Factory New
$1.20 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 11M 44S //TOTAL COST $5.40 //ASK PRICE EV $3.58 //BID PRICE EV $3.43 //ASK PROFIT $-1.82 (-33.7%) //BID PROFIT $-1.97 (-36.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 16.0% //BEST CASE $10.66 //VOLATILITY +59.8% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.0%
$10.66
+$5.26
+97.4%
$9.81
+$4.41
+81.7%
$0.85
8.0%
—
LOSS
4.0%
$4.46
-$0.94
-17.4%
$4.43
-$0.97
-18.0%
$0.03
0.7%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$3.67
-$1.73
-32.0%
$3.64
-$1.76
-32.6%
$0.03
0.8%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$3.12
-$2.28
-42.2%
$3.05
-$2.35
-43.5%
$0.07
2.3%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$2.65
-$2.75
-50.9%
$2.62
-$2.78
-51.5%
$0.03
1.1%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$2.64
-$2.76
-51.1%
$2.62
-$2.78
-51.5%
$0.02
0.8%
—
NUKE
4.0%
$2.01
-$3.39
-62.7%
$1.99
-$3.41
-63.1%
$0.02
1.2%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.53
-$3.87
-71.6%
$1.52
-$3.88
-71.9%
$0.01
0.9%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.52
-$3.88
-71.9%
$1.49
-$3.91
-72.4%
$0.03
1.8%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$1.29
-$4.11
-76.1%
$1.28
-$4.12
-76.3%
$0.01
0.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.052469999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e027a11f0d46",
"realistic_value": 10.66,
"optimistic_value": 10.66,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen",
"conservative_value": 9.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AK-47 | Wintergreen (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:10.267254Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e027a11f0d46.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.0475728,
"output_skin_id": "skin-efe243521c5e",
"realistic_value": 1.5335,
"optimistic_value": 1.53,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket",
"conservative_value": 1.52,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Poplar Thicket (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:55:27.423679Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-efe243521c5e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.04197599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-279e913dd981",
"realistic_value": 1.517,
"optimistic_value": 1.51,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf",
"conservative_value": 1.49,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Gold Leaf (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:07:23.192490Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-279e913dd981.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.038478,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ea3238e578e7",
"realistic_value": 3.671,
"optimistic_value": 3.65,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze",
"conservative_value": 3.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:13.367595Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea3238e578e7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.04197599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-17ba4cfaa721",
"realistic_value": 1.29,
"optimistic_value": 1.29,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage",
"conservative_value": 1.28,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Boreal Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Copperflage (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:36.320077Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-17ba4cfaa721.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.04197599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.1205,
"optimistic_value": 3.11,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.05,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:41.039096Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.048971999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.460500000000001,
"optimistic_value": 4.45,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:09.131172Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.045474,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.65,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:18.871020Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.04197599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:34.574463Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.04,
"output_float": 0.04197599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.014,
"optimistic_value": 2,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:19.354031Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_edddfca238cc6da3786ea364",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "524249840859436131",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:28.264078Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "508487136897429290",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:28.264078Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-cf53e2922c14",
"listing_id": "521997988015820706",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Leafhopper",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cf53e2922c14.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:03:52.639583Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-a493194726cd",
"listing_id": "500605942756133243",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9 (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Garter-9",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a493194726cd.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:56:00.430663Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-f57cd46a7078",
"listing_id": "529879340432661708",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear (Factory New)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Tiger Tear",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f57cd46a7078.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:50:33.359335Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "503983642533256579",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:47:48.797707Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-1caaee847d10",
"listing_id": "502857742726300384",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart (Factory New)",
"name": "Galil AR | Acid Dart",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1caaee847d10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:13:15.283197Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-566d676ca07d",
"listing_id": "502857689861815552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Mustard Gas (Factory New)",
"name": "P90 | Mustard Gas",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-566d676ca07d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:06:51.493377Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "490472625091045239",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:47:48.797707Z"
},
{
"price": 1.2,
"skin_id": "skin-fce2182cb25e",
"listing_id": "490472625090884103",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-neutral",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Marsh (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Marsh",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-fce2182cb25e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:47:48.797707Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:2+collection-set-timed-drops-neutral:8"
}Related
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Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Boreal Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate  25.0% $6.94 Sheet Lightning  25.0% $2.03 Glockingbird  25.0% $1.62 Royal Guard  25.0% $1.23 | $6.94 +205.9% | $2.95 +30.2% | 25.0% | +102.2% | $2.27 | — |