The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items

Battle-Scarred +22.4%Factory New +4.8%Minimal Wear +22.2%Well-Worn +3.6%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn

Inputs

Sky Mandala

3x $0.40

Earth Mandala

2x $0.46

Warm Blooded

2x $0.49

Late Night Transit

1x $0.51

Green Line

2x $0.60

↓

Possible Outputs

Exothermic

35.0% $7.65

Derailment

10.0% $7.13

Charged Up

10.0% $5.48

Whiteout

10.0% $4.17

Sleeping Potion

35.0% $2.47

Max Win

$7.65 (+51.8%)

EV (ROI %)

$5.22 (+3.6%)

Win %

55.0%

Volatility

+45.3%

Cost

$5.04

Age —

Financials

ASK-ONLY EDGE

Total Cost $5.04

Ask Price EV $5.22 (+3.6%)

Bid Price EV $4.63 (-8.1%)

Ask Profit $0.18 (+3.6%)

Bid Profit $-0.41 (-8.1%)

Liquidity Gap $0.59 (+11.7%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.18

Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.41

Risk

Win Probability 55.0%

Loss Probability 45.0%

Best Case $7.65 (+51.8%)

Worst Case $2.47 (-51.1%)

Volatility +45.3%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 35.0%

Avg Win +$2.12

Avg Loss -$2.19

Bottom 5% Outcome $2.47 (-51.1%)

Std Dev $2.28

Avg Norm Float 0.4479

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 16m

Oldest Output Price 21h 35m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Tight

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Positive · Validation Recommended

SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...

Chosen Inputs · 10 items

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.40 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Field-Tested

$0.46 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Field-Tested

$0.47 Float: HIDDEN

Galil AR | Sky Mandala

—

Field-Tested

$0.48 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.49 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Field-Tested

$0.50 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Field-Tested

$0.52 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit

—

Battle-Scarred

$0.51 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Green Line

—

Well-Worn

$0.60 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Green Line

—

Well-Worn

$0.61 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 30M 43S //TOTAL COST $5.04 //ASK PRICE EV $5.22 //BID PRICE EV $4.63 //ASK PROFIT $0.18 (+3.6%) //BID PROFIT $-0.41 (-8.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 55.0% //BEST CASE $7.65 //VOLATILITY +45.3% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.31355099999999997,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 7.65,
      "optimistic_value": 7.51,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 6.58,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:13:33.742714Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.31355099999999997,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 2.466,
      "optimistic_value": 2.41,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 2.25,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:42:36.302840Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.31355099999999997,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
      "realistic_value": 7.1295,
      "optimistic_value": 7.07,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
      "conservative_value": 6.4,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:25.278030Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.4810542,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "realistic_value": 4.174,
      "optimistic_value": 4.16,
      "output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "conservative_value": 4.11,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:15:43.887741Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.44793,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "realistic_value": 5.481,
      "optimistic_value": 5.46,
      "output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "conservative_value": 4.88,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Well-Worn)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T07:43:53.395739Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_eb1baae0ed57f924d28adb06",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 0.4,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "508487189339587610",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:41.679068Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.46,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "493850490550582840",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:02.985493Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.47,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "490472790737714703",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:08.924940Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.48,
      "skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
      "listing_id": "502857689862732112",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:08.924940Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.49,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "490472790737290515",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:05.450947Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.5,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "499479989897047513",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:05.450947Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.52,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "517494336189226390",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:03:02.985493Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.51,
      "skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
      "listing_id": "503983589619599383",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
      "wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:08:17.255681Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.6,
      "skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
      "listing_id": "514116688949958342",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:43.952384Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 0.61,
      "skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
      "listing_id": "490472790737415795",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
      "wear_name": "Well-Worn",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:43.952384Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7+collection-set-train-2025:3"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Derailment 10.0% $5.85 Charged Up 10.0% $4.93 Whiteout 10.0% $4.17 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.17	$9.85 +111.4%	$5.70 +22.4%	55.0%	+70.1%	$4.66	—
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Derailment 10.0% $44.71 Exothermic 35.0% $26.82 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63 Charged Up 10.0% $22.82	$64.86 +153.7%	$31.25 +22.2%	55.0%	+49.5%	$25.57	—
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New	Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Charged Up 10.0% $63.47 Derailment 10.0% $44.71 Exothermic 35.0% $26.82 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63	$64.86 +92.5%	$35.31 +4.8%	30.0%	+46.0%	$33.69	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 40.0% $9.85 Derailment 6.7% $5.85 Charged Up 6.7% $4.93 Whiteout 6.7% $4.17 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.17	$9.85 +114.6%	$5.81 +26.5%	53.3%	+75.6%	$4.59	—
The Harlequin Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Derailment 13.3% $44.71 Exothermic 30.0% $26.82 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $24.63 Charged Up 13.3% $22.82	$64.86 +138.6%	$33.09 +21.7%	26.7%	+52.0%	$27.18	—
The Harlequin Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $44.71 Exothermic 25.0% $26.82 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $24.63 Charged Up 16.7% $22.82	$64.86 +123.8%	$34.93 +20.5%	33.3%	+52.6%	$28.98	—
The Harlequin Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $44.71 Exothermic 20.0% $26.82 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $24.63 Charged Up 20.0% $22.82	$64.86 +109.4%	$36.77 +18.7%	40.0%	+51.9%	$30.97	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 40.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 40.0% $294.44 Party Animal 20.0% $158.85	$597.10 +69.3%	$388.39 +10.1%	40.0%	+50.3%	$352.60	—