The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items

Battle-Scarred +22.4%Factory New +4.8%Minimal Wear +22.2%Well-Worn +3.6%

Contract

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear

Inputs

Warm Blooded

4x $2.27

Earth Mandala

3x $2.30

Late Night Transit

2x $1.75

Green Line

1x $3.29

↓

Possible Outputs

Whiteout

10.0% $64.86

Derailment

10.0% $44.71

Exothermic

35.0% $26.82

Sleeping Potion

35.0% $24.63

Charged Up

10.0% $22.82

Max Win

$64.86 (+153.7%)

EV (ROI %)

$31.25 (+22.2%)

Win %

55.0%

Volatility

+49.5%

Cost

$25.57

Age —

Financials

Total Cost $25.57

Ask Price EV $31.25 (+22.2%)

Bid Price EV $29.58 (+15.7%)

Ask Profit $5.68 (+22.2%)

Bid Profit $4.01 (+15.7%)

Liquidity Gap $1.67 (+6.5%)

Ask Slippage Buffer +$5.68

Bid Slippage Buffer +$4.01

Risk

Win Probability 55.0%

Loss Probability 45.0%

Best Case $64.86 (+153.7%)

Worst Case $22.82 (-10.8%)

Volatility +49.5%

Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%

Avg Win +$11.42

Avg Loss -$1.34

Bottom 5% Outcome $22.82 (-10.8%)

Std Dev $12.67

Avg Norm Float 0.0956

P(output) Sum 1.0000

Execution ▸ ▾

Price Freshness Old

Oldest Input Price 21m

Oldest Output Price 144h 36m

Fill Confidence Low

Input Availability 10 / 10

Float Safety Edge

Price History

ROI & Win Rate

TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended

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Chosen Inputs · 10 items

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$2.27 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Factory New

$2.30 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Factory New

$2.36 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$2.36 Float: HIDDEN

Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala

—

Factory New

$2.47 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$2.70 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

—

Factory New

$3.07 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit

—

Field-Tested

$1.75 Float: HIDDEN

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit

—

Minimal Wear

$3.00 Float: HIDDEN

Glock-18 | Green Line

—

Minimal Wear

$3.29 Float: HIDDEN

OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 30M 43S //TOTAL COST $25.57 //ASK PRICE EV $31.25 //BID PRICE EV $29.58 //ASK PROFIT $5.68 (+22.2%) //BID PROFIT $4.01 (+15.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 55.0% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +49.5% //

Possible Outputs · 5

Skin

Latest Result

No spins recorded yet.

Cumulative P&L

Ask Bid

Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative P&L.

Raw payload (JSON)

{
  "parts": [
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 7,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
    },
    {
      "bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
      "item_count": 3,
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
    }
  ],
  "outcomes": [
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.066955,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-d384f428d432",
      "realistic_value": 26.8185,
      "optimistic_value": 26.71,
      "output_full_name": "AWP | Exothermic",
      "conservative_value": 25.99,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "AWP | Exothermic (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:06.957093Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d384f428d432.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.35,
      "output_float": 0.066955,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-a060f0657eb4",
      "realistic_value": 24.63,
      "optimistic_value": 24.56,
      "output_full_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion",
      "conservative_value": 22.28,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "USP-S | Sleeping Potion (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T05:03:09.879772Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a060f0657eb4.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.066955,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
      "realistic_value": 44.7135,
      "optimistic_value": 44.64,
      "output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
      "conservative_value": 42.91,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:55:16.448013Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.149911,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
      "realistic_value": 64.8635,
      "optimistic_value": 64.79,
      "output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
      "conservative_value": 61.61,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
    },
    {
      "probability": 0.09999999999999999,
      "output_float": 0.09565,
      "output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
      "realistic_value": 22.815,
      "optimistic_value": 22.78,
      "output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
      "conservative_value": 22.33,
      "source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Minimal Wear)",
      "price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:32:04.185204Z",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
    }
  ],
  "family_id": "fam_eb1baae0ed57f924d28adb06",
  "input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
  "chosen_inputs": [
    {
      "price": 2.27,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "529879287550357884",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:45.353730Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.3,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "511864888985191545",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:45.818949Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "516368488725166478",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:45.818949Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.36,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "517494388633380694",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:45.353730Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.47,
      "skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
      "listing_id": "496102290329375051",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
      "name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:45.818949Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 2.7,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "490472625089366055",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:45.353730Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.07,
      "skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
      "listing_id": "505109323870001060",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
      "wear_name": "Factory New",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:02:45.353730Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 1.75,
      "skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
      "listing_id": "494976338032637358",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Field-Tested)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
      "wear_name": "Field-Tested",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:00:21.281176Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3,
      "skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
      "listing_id": "511864888985469249",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:57:32.797430Z"
    },
    {
      "price": 3.29,
      "skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
      "listing_id": "524249787961801887",
      "collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
      "market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
      "name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
      "wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
      "image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
      "market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:05:11.825791Z"
    }
  ],
  "contract_size": 10,
  "output_rarity": "Restricted",
  "stattrak_mode": false,
  "composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7+collection-set-train-2025:3"
}

Related contracts

Positive EV only

Different wear buckets

Same contract family, other output wear ratings.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 35.0% $9.85 Derailment 10.0% $5.85 Charged Up 10.0% $4.93 Whiteout 10.0% $4.17 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.17	$9.85 +111.4%	$5.70 +22.4%	55.0%	+70.1%	$4.66	—
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New	Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Charged Up 10.0% $63.47 Derailment 10.0% $44.71 Exothermic 35.0% $26.82 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $24.63	$64.86 +92.5%	$35.31 +4.8%	30.0%	+46.0%	$33.69	—
The Harlequin Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn	Exothermic 35.0% $7.65 Derailment 10.0% $7.13 Charged Up 10.0% $5.48 Whiteout 10.0% $4.17 Sleeping Potion 35.0% $2.47	$7.65 +51.8%	$5.22 +3.6%	55.0%	+45.3%	$5.04	—

Different splits

Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Harlequin Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred	Exothermic 40.0% $9.85 Derailment 6.7% $5.85 Charged Up 6.7% $4.93 Whiteout 6.7% $4.17 Sleeping Potion 40.0% $2.17	$9.85 +114.6%	$5.81 +26.5%	53.3%	+75.6%	$4.59	—
The Harlequin Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 13.3% $64.86 Derailment 13.3% $44.71 Exothermic 30.0% $26.82 Sleeping Potion 30.0% $24.63 Charged Up 13.3% $22.82	$64.86 +138.6%	$33.09 +21.7%	26.7%	+52.0%	$27.18	—
The Harlequin Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $44.71 Exothermic 25.0% $26.82 Sleeping Potion 25.0% $24.63 Charged Up 16.7% $22.82	$64.86 +123.8%	$34.93 +20.5%	33.3%	+52.6%	$28.98	—
The Harlequin Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear	Whiteout 20.0% $64.86 Derailment 20.0% $44.71 Exothermic 20.0% $26.82 Sleeping Potion 20.0% $24.63 Charged Up 20.0% $22.82	$64.86 +109.4%	$36.77 +18.7%	40.0%	+51.9%	$30.97	—

Same combination, different rarity

Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.

Contract	Outputs	Max Win	EV (ROI)	Win %	Volatility	Cost	Age
The Harlequin Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Restricted → Classified Factory New	Hellish 40.0% $597.10 Latte Rush 40.0% $294.44 Party Animal 20.0% $158.85	$597.10 +69.3%	$388.39 +10.1%	40.0%	+50.3%	$352.60	—