The Ascent Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Robin's Egg
1x $0.14
Rose Nacre
1x $0.17
Electric Blue
1x $0.20
Banana Leaf
2x $0.17
Picnic
4x $0.18
Coral Paisley
1x $0.26
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
17.5% $6.21
Yeti Camo
6.0% $4.46
Sky Mandala
17.5% $3.50
Mint Fan
6.0% $3.37
Cobalt Paisley
6.0% $2.66
Royal Baroque
6.0% $2.64
Max Win
$6.21 (+129.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.41 (+25.8%)
Win %
47.0%
Volatility
+53.0%
Cost
$2.71
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.71
Ask Price EV $3.41 (+25.8%)
Bid Price EV $3.37 (+24.4%)
Ask Profit $0.70 (+25.8%)
Bid Profit $0.66 (+24.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.04 (+1.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.70
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.66
Risk
Win Probability 47.0%
Loss Probability 53.0%
Best Case $6.21 (+129.2%)
Worst Case $2.23 (-17.6%)
Volatility +53.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%
Avg Win +$1.90
Avg Loss -$0.37
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.23 (-17.6%)
Std Dev $1.44
Avg Norm Float 0.0998
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 19m
Oldest Output Price 8h 50m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.26 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 34M 31S //TOTAL COST $2.71 //ASK PRICE EV $3.41 //BID PRICE EV $3.37 //ASK PROFIT $0.70 (+25.8%) //BID PROFIT $0.66 (+24.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 47.0% //BEST CASE $6.21 //VOLATILITY +53.0% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
17.5%
$6.21
+$3.50
+129.2%
$6.18
+$3.47
+128.0%
$0.03
0.5%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$4.46
+$1.75
+64.6%
$4.43
+$1.72
+63.5%
$0.03
0.7%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
17.5%
$3.50
+$0.79
+29.0%
$3.45
+$0.74
+27.3%
$0.05
1.3%
—
WIN
6.0%
$3.37
+$0.66
+24.5%
$3.34
+$0.63
+23.2%
$0.03
1.0%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$2.66
-$0.05
-2.0%
$2.64
-$0.07
-2.6%
$0.02
0.6%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$2.64
-$0.07
-2.6%
$2.62
-$0.09
-3.3%
$0.02
0.8%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
17.5%
$2.27
-$0.44
-16.2%
$2.25
-$0.46
-17.0%
$0.02
0.9%
—
LOSS
17.5%
$2.24
-$0.47
-17.3%
$2.23
-$0.48
-17.7%
$0.01
0.4%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$2.23
-$0.48
-17.6%
$2.00
-$0.71
-26.2%
$0.23
10.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.0648635,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.21,
"optimistic_value": 6.21,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:29:27.368062Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.069853,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.497,
"optimistic_value": 3.49,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:51.211236Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.069853,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.27,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:47:54.177511Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.0658614,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.24,
"optimistic_value": 2.24,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:09:47.494612Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.059874,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3735,
"optimistic_value": 3.37,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:16:00.191826Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.069853,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.461,
"optimistic_value": 4.44,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:42:10.424256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0648635,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.657,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:05.635041Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.059874,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:43.476109Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.059874,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.234,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:10:00.585370Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_e5f31472b1d37f1f170943ad",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "502857637417906948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:40.145171Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "516368488724892626",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:03:26.100224Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "527627322006965552",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:02:43.506239Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "507361237008908833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:18:45.306255Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "492724590626103273",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:00:20.221450Z"
},
{
"price": 0.26,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "527627435180956868",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:08:27.824384Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "517494388633427818",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:16:00.856785Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "529879287551165328",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:30.161467Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "496102237884289967",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:30.161467Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "514115891844168738",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:13:30.161467Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
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