The Ascent Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Turquoise Pour
1x $0.40
Gum Wall Camo
1x $0.92
Ocean Topo
1x $1.05
Banana Leaf
3x $0.34
XoooM
1x $0.39
Picnic
2x $0.42
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
17.5% $6.21
Yeti Camo
6.0% $4.46
Sky Mandala
17.5% $3.47
Mint Fan
6.0% $3.37
Cobalt Paisley
6.0% $2.66
Royal Baroque
6.0% $2.64
Max Win
$6.21 (+8.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.41 (-40.7%)
Win %
17.5%
Volatility
+24.9%
Cost
$5.75
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.75
Ask Price EV $3.41 (-40.7%)
Bid Price EV $3.37 (-41.4%)
Ask Profit $-2.34 (-40.7%)
Bid Profit $-2.38 (-41.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.04 (+0.8%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.34
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.38
Risk
Win Probability 17.5%
Loss Probability 82.5%
Best Case $6.21 (+8.0%)
Worst Case $2.15 (-62.7%)
Volatility +24.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 76.5%
Avg Win +$0.46
Avg Loss -$2.93
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.15 (-62.7%)
Std Dev $1.43
Avg Norm Float 0.0700
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 10h 50m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo
—
Factory New
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 41M 27S //TOTAL COST $5.75 //ASK PRICE EV $3.41 //BID PRICE EV $3.37 //ASK PROFIT $-2.34 (-40.7%) //BID PROFIT $-2.38 (-41.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 17.5% //BEST CASE $6.21 //VOLATILITY +24.9% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
SMALL WIN
17.5%
$6.21
+$0.46
+8.0%
$6.18
+$0.43
+7.5%
$0.03
0.5%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$4.46
-$1.29
-22.4%
$4.43
-$1.32
-23.0%
$0.03
0.7%
—
LOSS
17.5%
$3.47
-$2.28
-39.6%
$3.42
-$2.33
-40.5%
$0.05
1.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$3.37
-$2.38
-41.3%
$3.34
-$2.41
-41.9%
$0.03
1.0%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$2.66
-$3.09
-53.8%
$2.64
-$3.11
-54.1%
$0.02
0.6%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$2.64
-$3.11
-54.0%
$2.62
-$3.13
-54.4%
$0.02
0.9%
—
NUKE
17.5%
$2.31
-$3.44
-59.9%
$2.24
-$3.51
-61.0%
$0.07
2.9%
—
NUKE
17.5%
$2.27
-$3.48
-60.5%
$2.25
-$3.50
-60.9%
$0.02
0.9%
—
NUKE
6.0%
$2.15
-$3.60
-62.7%
$2.00
-$3.75
-65.2%
$0.15
6.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.0454935,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.21,
"optimistic_value": 6.21,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:29:27.368062Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.048992999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.4739999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 3.46,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:06.985043Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.048992999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.27,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:07.568797Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.0461934,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.307,
"optimistic_value": 2.3,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:04.296012Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.041994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3735,
"optimistic_value": 3.37,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:21.830156Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.048992999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.461,
"optimistic_value": 4.44,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:42:10.424256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.0454935,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.657,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:22.654720Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.041994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.6435,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:35.711853Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.041994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.1455,
"optimistic_value": 2.1,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:14.680265Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_e5f31472b1d37f1f170943ad",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "529878490365643356",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:22.414170Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "525375522202630771",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:10.699085Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"listing_id": "622201718380639200",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:23.972116Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "523123888072201834",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:30.277978Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "529879235107884672",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:09:03.973127Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "502856892587568880",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:30.277978Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "526501422105552269",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:30.277978Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "496102237884289499",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:09:01.119769Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "501731789729823857",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:09:01.119769Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "526501587736797929",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Factory New)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:32.428089Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 17.5% $6.21 Yeti Camo 6.0% $4.46 Sky Mandala 17.5% $3.47 Mint Fan 6.0% $3.37 Cobalt Paisley 6.0% $2.66 Royal Baroque 6.0% $2.64 | $6.21 +126.6% | $3.41 +24.5% | 47.0% | +44.8% | $2.74 | — |