The Revolver Case Collection ×3+The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7
Classified → Covert MW ST 10 items
Contract
Classified → Covert Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Shapewood
2x $11.65
The Executioner
1x $14.11
Melondrama
3x $8.00
Abyssal Apparition
3x $9.72
Rapid Eye Movement
1x $12.83
↓
Possible Outputs
Fade
15.0% $318.51
Royal Paladin
15.0% $173.55
Nightwish
35.0% $109.07
Starlight Protector
35.0% $98.54
Max Win
$318.51 (+182.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$146.47 (+29.7%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+67.7%
Cost
$112.94
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $112.94
Ask Price EV $146.47 (+29.7%)
Bid Price EV $110.42 (-2.2%)
Ask Profit $33.53 (+29.7%)
Bid Profit $-2.52 (-2.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $36.05 (+31.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$33.53
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.52
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $318.51 (+182.0%)
Worst Case $98.54 (-12.8%)
Volatility +67.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%
Avg Win +$133.09
Avg Loss -$9.13
Bottom 5% Outcome $98.54 (-12.8%)
Std Dev $76.44
Avg Norm Float 0.1474
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 146h 23m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Shapewood
—
Field-Tested
$11.65 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Shapewood
—
Field-Tested
$12.51 Float: HIDDEN
G3SG1 | The Executioner
—
Field-Tested
$14.11 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Melondrama
—
Field-Tested
$8.00 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Abyssal Apparition
—
Minimal Wear
$9.72 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Melondrama
—
Minimal Wear
$10.16 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Melondrama
—
Minimal Wear
$10.98 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Abyssal Apparition
—
Minimal Wear
$11.29 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Abyssal Apparition
—
Minimal Wear
$11.69 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement
—
Minimal Wear
$12.83 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 29M 44S //TOTAL COST $112.94 //ASK PRICE EV $146.47 //BID PRICE EV $110.42 //ASK PROFIT $33.53 (+29.7%) //BID PROFIT $-2.52 (-2.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $318.51 //VOLATILITY +67.7% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID
15.0%
$318.51
+$205.57
+182.0%
$177.41
+$64.47
+57.1%
$141.10
44.3%
—
BIG WIN
15.0%
$173.55
+$60.61
+53.7%
$144.67
+$31.73
+28.1%
$28.88
16.6%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$109.07
-$3.87
-3.4%
$89.31
-$23.63
-20.9%
$19.76
18.1%
—
LOSS
35.0%
$98.54
-$14.40
-12.8%
$88.14
-$24.80
-22.0%
$10.40
10.6%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-10|Classified|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Classified|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.14743,
"output_skin_id": "skin-405f5570d1f6",
"realistic_value": 109.0745,
"optimistic_value": 107.58,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Nightwish",
"conservative_value": 89.31,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:03.125255Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-405f5570d1f6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.11794400000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-feae180c4968",
"realistic_value": 98.5385,
"optimistic_value": 95,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Starlight Protector",
"conservative_value": 88.14,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:27:47.609901Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-feae180c4968.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.11794400000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4c83a4940ef3",
"realistic_value": 173.547,
"optimistic_value": 165,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Royal Paladin",
"conservative_value": 144.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:37:34.881770Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4c83a4940ef3.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.058972000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3d5660b8b090",
"realistic_value": 318.5125,
"optimistic_value": 254.81,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Fade",
"conservative_value": 177.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:28:16.437303Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3d5660b8b090.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_e26404728067b07211bab0f6",
"input_rarity": "Classified",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 11.65,
"skin_id": "skin-d866f26d9587",
"listing_id": "529879235108153736",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Shapewood",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d866f26d9587.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:45:53.051452Z"
},
{
"price": 12.51,
"skin_id": "skin-d866f26d9587",
"listing_id": "523123835626698250",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Shapewood",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d866f26d9587.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:45:53.051452Z"
},
{
"price": 14.11,
"skin_id": "skin-b0c24d905a01",
"listing_id": "660480340358227224",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested)",
"name": "G3SG1 | The Executioner",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b0c24d905a01.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:38:12.513672Z"
},
{
"price": 8,
"skin_id": "skin-53e4dc76b3e5",
"listing_id": "523123888072496350",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Melondrama",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53e4dc76b3e5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:55:45.707134Z"
},
{
"price": 9.72,
"skin_id": "skin-335f1a313262",
"listing_id": "490472790736768443",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Abyssal Apparition",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-335f1a313262.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:42:09.589664Z"
},
{
"price": 10.16,
"skin_id": "skin-53e4dc76b3e5",
"listing_id": "491598638255516966",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Melondrama",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53e4dc76b3e5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:45:03.944632Z"
},
{
"price": 10.98,
"skin_id": "skin-53e4dc76b3e5",
"listing_id": "493850438106143668",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Melondrama",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53e4dc76b3e5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:45:03.944632Z"
},
{
"price": 11.29,
"skin_id": "skin-335f1a313262",
"listing_id": "501731737285625957",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Abyssal Apparition",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-335f1a313262.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:42:09.589664Z"
},
{
"price": 11.69,
"skin_id": "skin-335f1a313262",
"listing_id": "523123722380469838",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Abyssal Apparition",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-335f1a313262.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:42:09.589664Z"
},
{
"price": 12.83,
"skin_id": "skin-c1ded03e3025",
"listing_id": "515242536110121877",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c1ded03e3025.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T05:42:37.486350Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Covert",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Classified|Covert|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-10:3+collection-set-community-30:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolver Case Collection ×3+The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Fade 15.0% $318.51 Royal Paladin 15.0% $173.55 Starlight Protector 35.0% $98.54 Nightwish 35.0% $92.29 | $318.51 +205.0% | $140.60 +34.6% | 30.0% | +76.3% | $104.43 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Power Loader  6.7% $20.64 Avalanche  6.7% $17.49 Retrobution  6.7% $9.43 Teclu Burner  6.7% $8.17 Fuel Rod  6.7% $6.48 Tiger Moth  6.7% $5.82 | $20.64 +299.9% | $5.97 +15.7% | 40.0% | +95.6% | $5.16 | — |