The Revolver Case Collection ×3+The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7
Classified → Covert FN ST 10 items
Contract
Classified → Covert Factory New StatTrak™
Inputs
Shapewood
3x $19.55
Melondrama
3x $25.77
Rapid Eye Movement
3x $29.74
Abyssal Apparition
1x $61.09
↓
Possible Outputs
Royal Paladin
15.0% $696.64
Fade
15.0% $318.51
Nightwish
35.0% $201.35
Starlight Protector
35.0% $151.47
Max Win
$696.64 (+122.3%)
EV (ROI %)
$275.76 (-12.0%)
Win %
30.0%
Volatility
+59.0%
Cost
$313.42
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $313.42
Ask Price EV $275.76 (-12.0%)
Bid Price EV $192.78 (-38.5%)
Ask Profit $-37.66 (-12.0%)
Bid Profit $-120.64 (-38.5%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $82.98 (+26.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$37.66
Bid Slippage Buffer -$120.64
Risk
Win Probability 30.0%
Loss Probability 70.0%
Best Case $696.64 (+122.3%)
Worst Case $151.47 (-51.7%)
Volatility +59.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 70.0%
Avg Win +$194.15
Avg Loss -$137.01
Bottom 5% Outcome $151.47 (-51.7%)
Std Dev $184.90
Avg Norm Float 0.0696
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 14m
Oldest Output Price 147h 25m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P90 | Shapewood
—
Minimal Wear
$19.55 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Shapewood
—
Minimal Wear
$20.21 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Shapewood
—
Minimal Wear
$21.18 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Melondrama
—
Factory New
$25.77 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Melondrama
—
Factory New
$26.48 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Melondrama
—
Factory New
$26.49 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement
—
Factory New
$29.74 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement
—
Factory New
$31.16 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement
—
Factory New
$51.75 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Abyssal Apparition
—
Factory New
$61.09 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 22M 09S //TOTAL COST $313.42 //ASK PRICE EV $275.76 //BID PRICE EV $192.78 //ASK PROFIT $-37.66 (-12.0%) //BID PROFIT $-120.64 (-38.5%) //WIN PROBABILITY 30.0% //BEST CASE $696.64 //VOLATILITY +59.0% //
Possible Outputs · 4
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID
15.0%
$696.64
+$383.22
+122.3%
$395.34
+$81.92
+26.1%
$301.30
43.3%
—
PAPER WIN THIN BID
15.0%
$318.51
+$5.09
+1.6%
$177.41
-$136.01
-43.4%
$141.10
44.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
35.0%
$201.35
-$112.07
-35.8%
$178.68
-$134.74
-43.0%
$22.67
11.3%
—
NUKE
35.0%
$151.47
-$161.95
-51.7%
$126.66
-$186.76
-59.6%
$24.81
16.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-10|Classified|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Classified|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.06964,
"output_skin_id": "skin-405f5570d1f6",
"realistic_value": 201.3475,
"optimistic_value": 200,
"output_full_name": "AK-47 | Nightwish",
"conservative_value": 178.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:16:01.485937Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-405f5570d1f6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.35,
"output_float": 0.055712,
"output_skin_id": "skin-feae180c4968",
"realistic_value": 151.4735,
"optimistic_value": 149.3,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Starlight Protector",
"conservative_value": 126.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:24:15.888956Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-feae180c4968.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.055712,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4c83a4940ef3",
"realistic_value": 696.6374999999999,
"optimistic_value": 557.31,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Royal Paladin",
"conservative_value": 395.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:35:59.515866Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4c83a4940ef3.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.027856,
"output_skin_id": "skin-3d5660b8b090",
"realistic_value": 318.5125,
"optimistic_value": 254.81,
"output_full_name": "R8 Revolver | Fade",
"conservative_value": 177.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Revolver Case Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:28:16.437303Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3d5660b8b090.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_e26404728067b07211bab0f6",
"input_rarity": "Classified",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 19.55,
"skin_id": "skin-d866f26d9587",
"listing_id": "528753335312491401",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Shapewood",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d866f26d9587.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:55:02.632353Z"
},
{
"price": 20.21,
"skin_id": "skin-d866f26d9587",
"listing_id": "783200338039312163",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Shapewood",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d866f26d9587.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:55:02.632353Z"
},
{
"price": 21.18,
"skin_id": "skin-d866f26d9587",
"listing_id": "636836442316788129",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-10",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P90 | Shapewood",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d866f26d9587.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:55:02.632353Z"
},
{
"price": 25.77,
"skin_id": "skin-53e4dc76b3e5",
"listing_id": "527627487623605976",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Melondrama",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53e4dc76b3e5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:57:21.496808Z"
},
{
"price": 26.48,
"skin_id": "skin-53e4dc76b3e5",
"listing_id": "521997988014597426",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Melondrama",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53e4dc76b3e5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:57:21.496808Z"
},
{
"price": 26.49,
"skin_id": "skin-53e4dc76b3e5",
"listing_id": "514115891841324522",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Melondrama",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53e4dc76b3e5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:57:21.496808Z"
},
{
"price": 29.74,
"skin_id": "skin-c1ded03e3025",
"listing_id": "500605889840079959",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c1ded03e3025.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:47:24.717936Z"
},
{
"price": 31.16,
"skin_id": "skin-c1ded03e3025",
"listing_id": "527627487624770180",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c1ded03e3025.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:47:24.717936Z"
},
{
"price": 51.75,
"skin_id": "skin-c1ded03e3025",
"listing_id": "625578077230439719",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c1ded03e3025.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:47:24.717936Z"
},
{
"price": 61.09,
"skin_id": "skin-335f1a313262",
"listing_id": "524248990833166539",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Factory New)",
"name": "MP7 | Abyssal Apparition",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-335f1a313262.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T06:50:14.523007Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Covert",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Classified|Covert|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-10:3+collection-set-community-30:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolver Case Collection ×3+The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7 Classified → Covert Field-Tested ST | Fade 15.0% $318.51 Royal Paladin 15.0% $173.55 Starlight Protector 35.0% $98.54 Nightwish 35.0% $92.29 | $318.51 +205.0% | $140.60 +34.6% | 30.0% | +76.3% | $104.43 | — |
The Revolver Case Collection ×3+The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7 Classified → Covert Minimal Wear ST | Fade 15.0% $318.51 Royal Paladin 15.0% $173.55 Nightwish 35.0% $109.07 Starlight Protector 35.0% $98.54 | $318.51 +182.0% | $146.47 +29.7% | 30.0% | +67.7% | $112.94 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Revolver Case Collection ×4+The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Power Loader  6.7% $20.64 Avalanche  6.7% $17.49 Retrobution  6.7% $9.43 Teclu Burner  6.7% $8.17 Fuel Rod  6.7% $6.48 Tiger Moth  6.7% $5.82 | $20.64 +299.9% | $5.97 +15.7% | 40.0% | +95.6% | $5.16 | — |