The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted WW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn
Inputs
Poultrygeist
2x $0.12
Ensnared
2x $0.12
Spirit Board
1x $0.13
Red FragCam
1x $3.22
Blue Fissure
3x $3.80
Crimson Web
1x $3.83
↓
Possible Outputs
Copper Galaxy
12.5% $18.69
Titanium Bit
12.5% $12.41
Heirloom
12.5% $10.97
Tread Plate
12.5% $8.11
Night Terror
10.0% $1.00
Zombie Offensive
10.0% $0.96
Max Win
$18.69 (-3.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$6.73 (-65.2%)
Win %
0.0%
Volatility
+33.3%
Cost
$19.32
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $19.32
Ask Price EV $6.73 (-65.2%)
Bid Price EV $6.43 (-66.7%)
Ask Profit $-12.59 (-65.2%)
Bid Profit $-12.89 (-66.7%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.29 (+1.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$12.59
Bid Slippage Buffer -$12.89
Risk
Win Probability 0.00%
Loss Probability 100.0%
Best Case $18.69 (-3.2%)
Worst Case $0.83 (-95.7%)
Volatility +33.3%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 87.5%
Avg Win —
Avg Loss -$12.59
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.83 (-95.7%)
Std Dev $6.43
Avg Norm Float 0.3816
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 156h 29m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Ensnared
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red FragCam
—
Battle-Scarred
$3.22 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure
—
Well-Worn
$3.80 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web
—
Field-Tested
$3.83 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure
—
Field-Tested
$3.84 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure
—
Field-Tested
$4.00 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 15M 03S //TOTAL COST $19.32 //ASK PRICE EV $6.73 //BID PRICE EV $6.43 //ASK PROFIT $-12.59 (-65.2%) //BID PROFIT $-12.89 (-66.7%) //WIN PROBABILITY 0.0% //BEST CASE $18.69 //VOLATILITY +33.3% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
LOSS
12.5%
$18.69
-$0.63
-3.2%
$17.68
-$1.64
-8.5%
$1.01
5.4%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$12.41
-$6.91
-35.8%
$11.86
-$7.46
-38.6%
$0.55
4.4%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$10.97
-$8.35
-43.2%
$10.66
-$8.66
-44.8%
$0.31
2.9%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$8.11
-$11.21
-58.0%
$7.93
-$11.39
-59.0%
$0.18
2.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.00
-$18.32
-94.8%
$0.87
-$18.45
-95.5%
$0.13
12.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.96
-$18.36
-95.0%
$0.81
-$18.51
-95.8%
$0.15
15.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.92
-$18.40
-95.3%
$0.86
-$18.46
-95.5%
$0.06
6.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.83
-$18.49
-95.7%
$0.82
-$18.50
-95.8%
$0.01
1.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.83
-$18.49
-95.7%
$0.81
-$18.51
-95.8%
$0.02
2.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.07632,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9ed635da7e55",
"realistic_value": 8.11,
"optimistic_value": 7.97,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate",
"conservative_value": 7.93,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T16:07:07.108406Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9ed635da7e55.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.30528,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6730ed01353f",
"realistic_value": 10.9735,
"optimistic_value": 10.83,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom",
"conservative_value": 10.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T10:41:05.067709Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6730ed01353f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.07632,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5a5e6018f632",
"realistic_value": 18.693,
"optimistic_value": 18,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy",
"conservative_value": 17.68,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:55:09.567828Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a5e6018f632.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.07632,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ce20dbe572e3",
"realistic_value": 12.4085,
"optimistic_value": 12.23,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit",
"conservative_value": 11.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:33:24.995513Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ce20dbe572e3.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.3816,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 0.83,
"optimistic_value": 0.83,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Well-Worn)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:19:43.681397Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.26711999999999997,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 0.997,
"optimistic_value": 0.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 0.87,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:45:35.810766Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.255672,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 0.827,
"optimistic_value": 0.82,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 0.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:16:02.914320Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.290016,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 0.915,
"optimistic_value": 0.88,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 0.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:48:50.321704Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.1908,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 0.9604999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.95,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 0.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T22:26:44.444767Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_e09b78469b5652c1020e8f04",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-2c6b935bb4eb",
"listing_id": "505109542381173392",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c6b935bb4eb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:24:30.290573Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "518620341244113580",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:19:12.110737Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-2c6b935bb4eb",
"listing_id": "509613142169076051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c6b935bb4eb.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:24:30.290573Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-7b9cc6bc31ef",
"listing_id": "502857742727534716",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Ensnared",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7b9cc6bc31ef.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:19:12.110737Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
"listing_id": "521998040963433534",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:08:16.655132Z"
},
{
"price": 3.22,
"skin_id": "skin-ea39a500354e",
"listing_id": "490472843633618823",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red FragCam (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "P2000 | Red FragCam",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea39a500354e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:36.069124Z"
},
{
"price": 3.8,
"skin_id": "skin-46fa4ce20e23",
"listing_id": "510738192162918178",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-46fa4ce20e23.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:15:14.937996Z"
},
{
"price": 3.83,
"skin_id": "skin-5a5917ab52b0",
"listing_id": "529879340432334000",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a5917ab52b0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:38.163819Z"
},
{
"price": 3.84,
"skin_id": "skin-46fa4ce20e23",
"listing_id": "496102237884401027",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-46fa4ce20e23.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:13:06.386298Z"
},
{
"price": 4,
"skin_id": "skin-46fa4ce20e23",
"listing_id": "526501535293799549",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-46fa4ce20e23.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:13:06.386298Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:5+collection-set-weapons-iii:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 12.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 12.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 12.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 12.5% $26.30 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $4.89 Night Terror 10.0% $3.99 | $313.93 +583.2% | $57.65 +25.5% | 37.5% | +205.4% | $45.95 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Heirloom 12.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 12.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 12.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 12.5% $26.30 Dream Glade 10.0% $8.44 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $4.89 | $313.93 +483.7% | $58.33 +8.5% | 25.0% | +174.8% | $53.78 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 10.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 10.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 10.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 10.0% $26.30 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $4.90 Night Terror 12.0% $3.99 | $313.93 +762.0% | $46.78 +28.4% | 30.0% | +239.7% | $36.42 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 7.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 7.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 7.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 7.5% $26.30 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $4.89 Night Terror 14.0% $3.99 | $313.93 +1018.4% | $35.90 +27.9% | 22.5% | +279.0% | $28.07 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 5.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 5.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 5.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 5.0% $26.30 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $4.89 Night Terror 16.0% $3.99 | $313.93 +1444.9% | $25.03 +23.2% | 20.0% | +326.2% | $20.32 | — |