The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear
Inputs
Necro Jr.
2x $1.53
Lifted Spirits
1x $1.90
Spirit Board
2x $2.69
Blue Fissure
1x $4.00
Crimson Web
3x $6.29
Red FragCam
1x $7.96
↓
Possible Outputs
Heirloom
12.5% $313.93
Copper Galaxy
12.5% $57.94
Titanium Bit
12.5% $49.92
Tread Plate
12.5% $26.30
Ticket to Hell
10.0% $4.90
Night Terror
10.0% $3.99
Max Win
$313.93 (+583.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$57.65 (+25.5%)
Win %
37.5%
Volatility
+215.6%
Cost
$45.95
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $45.95
Ask Price EV $57.65 (+25.5%)
Bid Price EV $48.39 (+5.3%)
Ask Profit $11.70 (+25.5%)
Bid Profit $2.44 (+5.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $9.26 (+20.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$11.70
Bid Slippage Buffer +$2.44
Risk
Win Probability 37.5%
Loss Probability 62.5%
Best Case $313.93 (+583.2%)
Worst Case $1.64 (-96.4%)
Volatility +215.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 62.5%
Avg Win +$94.65
Avg Loss -$38.06
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.64 (-96.4%)
Std Dev $99.09
Avg Norm Float 0.0872
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 14m
Oldest Output Price 155h 27m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Factory New
$1.53 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Lifted Spirits
—
Factory New
$1.90 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Necro Jr.
—
Factory New
$2.49 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
—
Factory New
$2.69 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Spirit Board
—
Factory New
$2.72 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Blue Fissure
—
Field-Tested
$4.00 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web
—
Field-Tested
$6.29 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web
—
Field-Tested
$7.31 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Red FragCam
—
Minimal Wear
$7.96 Float: HIDDEN
CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web
—
Minimal Wear
$9.06 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 07M 52S //TOTAL COST $45.95 //ASK PRICE EV $57.65 //BID PRICE EV $48.39 //ASK PROFIT $11.70 (+25.5%) //BID PROFIT $2.44 (+5.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 37.5% //BEST CASE $313.93 //VOLATILITY +215.6% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.5%
$313.93
+$267.98
+583.2%
$251.97
+$206.02
+448.4%
$61.96
19.7%
—
WIN
12.5%
$57.94
+$11.99
+26.1%
$55.32
+$9.37
+20.4%
$2.62
4.5%
—
PAPER WIN
12.5%
$49.92
+$3.97
+8.6%
$43.25
-$2.70
-5.9%
$6.67
13.4%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$26.30
-$19.65
-42.8%
$23.55
-$22.40
-48.7%
$2.75
10.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.90
-$41.05
-89.3%
$4.85
-$41.10
-89.4%
$0.05
1.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.99
-$41.96
-91.3%
$3.98
-$41.97
-91.3%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.22
-$42.73
-93.0%
$3.19
-$42.76
-93.1%
$0.03
0.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.67
-$43.28
-94.2%
$2.66
-$43.29
-94.2%
$0.01
0.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.64
-$44.31
-96.4%
$1.62
-$44.33
-96.5%
$0.02
1.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-30|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.017446,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9ed635da7e55",
"realistic_value": 26.304,
"optimistic_value": 26.22,
"output_full_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate",
"conservative_value": 23.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Tread Plate (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:47.162368Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9ed635da7e55.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.069784,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6730ed01353f",
"realistic_value": 313.933,
"optimistic_value": 293.78,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom",
"conservative_value": 251.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:44:47.265430Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6730ed01353f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.017446,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5a5e6018f632",
"realistic_value": 57.9445,
"optimistic_value": 57.5,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy",
"conservative_value": 55.32,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Copper Galaxy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T03:57:42.344378Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a5e6018f632.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.017446,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ce20dbe572e3",
"realistic_value": 49.922000000000004,
"optimistic_value": 49.88,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit",
"conservative_value": 43.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Arms Deal 3 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Titanium Bit (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:35:04.028074Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ce20dbe572e3.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.08723,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5efcaeb15ee",
"realistic_value": 1.6369999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.63,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Dream Glade (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:23:06.525413Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5efcaeb15ee.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.061061,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ec2dd0814c74",
"realistic_value": 3.99,
"optimistic_value": 3.99,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror",
"conservative_value": 3.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:21:32.775780Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ec2dd0814c74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.058444100000000006,
"output_skin_id": "skin-10f8a820b8dc",
"realistic_value": 3.22,
"optimistic_value": 3.22,
"output_full_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat",
"conservative_value": 3.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Space Cat (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:56:01.113830Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-10f8a820b8dc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0662948,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f3392bb443bc",
"realistic_value": 4.9,
"optimistic_value": 4.9,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell",
"conservative_value": 4.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:39:26.978176Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f3392bb443bc.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.043615,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5f6eb8a4271e",
"realistic_value": 2.6735,
"optimistic_value": 2.67,
"output_full_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive",
"conservative_value": 2.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Dreams & Nightmares Collection",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Zombie Offensive (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:18:26.097721Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5f6eb8a4271e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_e09b78469b5652c1020e8f04",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.53,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "526501640651302637",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:22.466513Z"
},
{
"price": 1.9,
"skin_id": "skin-75edb16f0014",
"listing_id": "498354142900541407",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Lifted Spirits",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-75edb16f0014.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:28.304062Z"
},
{
"price": 2.49,
"skin_id": "skin-0571189c0ca3",
"listing_id": "497228137695537017",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Necro Jr.",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0571189c0ca3.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:22.466513Z"
},
{
"price": 2.69,
"skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
"listing_id": "519746241188600288",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:33.456365Z"
},
{
"price": 2.72,
"skin_id": "skin-3da25779ee2d",
"listing_id": "497228137696833341",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-30",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Spirit Board",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3da25779ee2d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:14:33.456365Z"
},
{
"price": 4,
"skin_id": "skin-46fa4ce20e23",
"listing_id": "526501535293799549",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Blue Fissure",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-46fa4ce20e23.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:48.604771Z"
},
{
"price": 6.29,
"skin_id": "skin-5a5917ab52b0",
"listing_id": "501730992867251045",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a5917ab52b0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:25.045446Z"
},
{
"price": 7.31,
"skin_id": "skin-5a5917ab52b0",
"listing_id": "645843641558777147",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a5917ab52b0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:25.045446Z"
},
{
"price": 7.96,
"skin_id": "skin-ea39a500354e",
"listing_id": "494976390476485734",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Red FragCam (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P2000 | Red FragCam",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ea39a500354e.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:37.136834Z"
},
{
"price": 9.06,
"skin_id": "skin-5a5917ab52b0",
"listing_id": "516368436282001562",
"collection_id": "collection-set-weapons-iii",
"market_hash_name": "CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5a5917ab52b0.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:21.124206Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-30:5+collection-set-weapons-iii:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×5+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Heirloom 12.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 12.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 12.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 12.5% $26.30 Dream Glade 10.0% $8.59 Ticket to Hell 10.0% $4.90 | $313.93 +483.7% | $58.35 +8.5% | 25.0% | +174.8% | $53.78 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×6+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 10.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 10.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 10.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 10.0% $26.30 Ticket to Hell 12.0% $4.90 Night Terror 12.0% $3.99 | $313.93 +794.4% | $46.78 +33.3% | 30.0% | +248.7% | $35.10 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×7+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 7.5% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 7.5% $57.94 Titanium Bit 7.5% $49.92 Tread Plate 7.5% $26.30 Ticket to Hell 14.0% $4.90 Night Terror 14.0% $3.99 | $313.93 +1030.5% | $35.91 +29.3% | 22.5% | +282.0% | $27.77 | — |
The Dreams & Nightmares Collection ×8+The Arms Deal 3 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Heirloom 5.0% $313.93 Copper Galaxy 5.0% $57.94 Titanium Bit 5.0% $49.92 Tread Plate 5.0% $26.30 Ticket to Hell 16.0% $4.90 Night Terror 16.0% $3.99 | $313.93 +1444.9% | $25.03 +23.2% | 20.0% | +326.2% | $20.32 | — |