The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Mainframe
1x $0.93
Gum Wall Camo
4x $0.36
Turquoise Pour
3x $0.38
Rose Nacre
1x $0.43
Ocean Topo
1x $1.05
↓
Possible Outputs
Acheron
2.5% $17.37
Yeti Camo
18.0% $4.46
Mint Fan
18.0% $3.37
Cobalt Paisley
18.0% $2.66
Royal Baroque
18.0% $2.64
Exchanger
2.5% $2.44
Max Win
$17.37 (+205.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.37 (-40.7%)
Win %
2.5%
Volatility
+41.8%
Cost
$5.68
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.68
Ask Price EV $3.37 (-40.7%)
Bid Price EV $3.29 (-42.0%)
Ask Profit $-2.31 (-40.7%)
Bid Profit $-2.39 (-42.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.08 (+1.4%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.31
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.39
Risk
Win Probability 2.5%
Loss Probability 97.5%
Best Case $17.37 (+205.8%)
Worst Case $2.22 (-60.9%)
Volatility +41.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 79.5%
Avg Win +$11.69
Avg Loss -$2.67
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.22 (-60.9%)
Std Dev $2.37
Avg Norm Float 0.0689
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 11m
Oldest Output Price 138h 56m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
M4A4 | Mainframe
—
Factory New
$0.93 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Factory New
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo
—
Factory New
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 38M 31S //TOTAL COST $5.68 //ASK PRICE EV $3.37 //BID PRICE EV $3.29 //ASK PROFIT $-2.31 (-40.7%) //BID PROFIT $-2.39 (-42.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 2.5% //BEST CASE $17.37 //VOLATILITY +41.8% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
2.5%
$17.37
+$11.69
+205.8%
$16.98
+$11.30
+198.9%
$0.39
2.2%
—
LOSS
18.0%
$4.46
-$1.22
-21.5%
$4.43
-$1.25
-22.0%
$0.03
0.7%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$3.37
-$2.31
-40.6%
$3.34
-$2.34
-41.2%
$0.03
1.0%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$2.66
-$3.02
-53.2%
$2.64
-$3.04
-53.5%
$0.02
0.6%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$2.64
-$3.04
-53.5%
$2.62
-$3.06
-53.9%
$0.02
0.8%
—
NUKE
2.5%
$2.44
-$3.24
-57.0%
$2.37
-$3.31
-58.3%
$0.07
2.9%
—
NUKE
2.5%
$2.25
-$3.43
-60.3%
$2.04
-$3.64
-64.1%
$0.21
9.5%
—
NUKE
2.5%
$2.23
-$3.45
-60.8%
$2.16
-$3.52
-62.0%
$0.07
3.0%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$2.22
-$3.46
-60.9%
$1.99
-$3.69
-65.0%
$0.23
10.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-nuke-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.041364,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3735,
"optimistic_value": 3.37,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:36:50.446042Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.048257999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.461,
"optimistic_value": 4.44,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:42:10.424256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.044811000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.657,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:19.756353Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.041364,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:27.844587Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.041364,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.221,
"optimistic_value": 2.2,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:19.346295Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.0572202,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e9b9cd050d5",
"realistic_value": 17.3705,
"optimistic_value": 17.36,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Acheron",
"conservative_value": 16.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Acheron (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:08:46.180805Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e9b9cd050d5.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.03447,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1a3115020d99",
"realistic_value": 2.2535,
"optimistic_value": 2.25,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor",
"conservative_value": 2.04,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:45:08.422251Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a3115020d99.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.03447,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4609f8421163",
"realistic_value": 2.4415,
"optimistic_value": 2.41,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Exchanger",
"conservative_value": 2.37,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Exchanger (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:38:56.866890Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4609f8421163.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.025,
"output_float": 0.03447,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc69b0796bd",
"realistic_value": 2.2270000000000003,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Facility Negative",
"conservative_value": 2.16,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Nuke Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Facility Negative (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:16:23.159888Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc69b0796bd.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_ddb66aeb33f0833cd46381f8",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.93,
"skin_id": "skin-810cb4b6d950",
"listing_id": "528753335313332721",
"collection_id": "collection-set-nuke-2",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Mainframe (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Mainframe",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-810cb4b6d950.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:56:31.835649Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "496102290328809707",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:29.067325Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "508487136897429290",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:30.285017Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "515242536109828297",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:30.285017Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "492724538181071325",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:29.067325Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "529878490365643356",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:30.285017Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "521997935570479518",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:29.067325Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "494976390476374350",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:44.446260Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "525375522202630771",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:29.067325Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"listing_id": "622201718380639200",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:10.636074Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-nuke-2:1+collection-set-timed-drops-cool:9"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×1+The Ascent Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Mint Fan 18.0% $3.37 Royal Baroque 18.0% $2.64 Acheron 2.5% $2.57 Exchanger 2.5% $2.44 Co-Processor 2.5% $2.25 Facility Negative 2.5% $2.23 | $3.37 +86.4% | $2.24 +23.7% | 64.0% | +28.4% | $1.81 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×6+The Ascent Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 15.0% $2.57 Exchanger 15.0% $2.44 Co-Processor 15.0% $2.25 Facility Negative 15.0% $2.23 Yeti Camo 8.0% $1.77 Royal Baroque 8.0% $1.19 | $2.57 +74.9% | $1.92 +30.3% | 68.0% | +29.0% | $1.47 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×5+The Ascent Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 12.5% $2.57 Exchanger 12.5% $2.44 Co-Processor 12.5% $2.25 Facility Negative 12.5% $2.23 Yeti Camo 10.0% $1.75 Reef Grief 10.0% $1.13 | $2.57 +82.3% | $1.80 +27.7% | 60.0% | +33.2% | $1.41 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×4+The Ascent Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Acheron 10.0% $2.57 Exchanger 10.0% $2.44 Co-Processor 10.0% $2.25 Facility Negative 10.0% $2.23 Yeti Camo 12.0% $1.77 Royal Baroque 12.0% $1.19 | $2.57 +87.7% | $1.69 +23.2% | 52.0% | +34.8% | $1.37 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×3+The Ascent Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Battle-Scarred | Midnight Laminate  35.0% $6.94 Nuclear Garden  10.0% $3.59 Core Breach  10.0% $1.31 Royal Guard  35.0% $1.26 Random Access  10.0% $1.26 | $6.94 +150.7% | $3.49 +25.9% | 45.0% | +94.7% | $2.77 | — |
The 2018 Nuke Collection ×8+The Ascent Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Control Panel  40.0% $418.56 Stratosphere  20.0% $131.31 Remote Control  40.0% $94.77 | $418.56 +93.7% | $231.59 +7.2% | 40.0% | +70.9% | $216.05 | — |