The Fracture Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted MW ST 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear StatTrak™
Inputs
Gnarled
2x $0.17
Freight
1x $0.18
Light Box
3x $0.21
Hideout
1x $0.29
Dark Sigil
1x $0.32
Irezumi
1x $0.32
↓
Possible Outputs
Etch Lord
14.0% $4.43
Block-18
14.0% $4.19
Just Smile
14.0% $3.32
Hybrid
14.0% $2.65
Monster Call
6.0% $2.47
Allure
6.0% $2.28
Max Win
$4.43 (+75.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.98 (+18.4%)
Win %
56.0%
Volatility
+36.9%
Cost
$2.52
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.52
Ask Price EV $2.98 (+18.4%)
Bid Price EV $2.67 (+5.8%)
Ask Profit $0.46 (+18.4%)
Bid Profit $0.15 (+5.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.32 (+12.6%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.46
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.15
Risk
Win Probability 56.0%
Loss Probability 44.0%
Best Case $4.43 (+75.8%)
Worst Case $1.90 (-24.4%)
Volatility +36.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%
Avg Win +$1.13
Avg Loss -$0.38
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.90 (-24.4%)
Std Dev $0.93
Avg Norm Float 0.1491
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 78h 34m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Big-Win Hunter · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Field-Tested
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
P90 | Freight
—
Field-Tested
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Gnarled
—
Field-Tested
$0.19 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
MAC-10 | Light Box
—
Field-Tested
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Hideout
—
Minimal Wear
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Dark Sigil
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Irezumi
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Slag
—
Minimal Wear
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 52M 45S //TOTAL COST $2.52 //ASK PRICE EV $2.98 //BID PRICE EV $2.67 //ASK PROFIT $0.46 (+18.4%) //BID PROFIT $0.15 (+5.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 56.0% //BEST CASE $4.43 //VOLATILITY +36.9% //
Possible Outputs · 10
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$4.43
+$1.91
+75.8%
$3.79
+$1.27
+50.4%
$0.64
14.5%
—
BIG WIN
14.0%
$4.19
+$1.67
+66.3%
$3.88
+$1.36
+54.0%
$0.31
7.4%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$3.32
+$0.80
+31.8%
$2.85
+$0.33
+13.1%
$0.47
14.2%
—
SMALL WIN EDGE FLOAT
14.0%
$2.65
+$0.13
+5.2%
$2.60
+$0.08
+3.2%
$0.05
1.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$2.47
-$0.05
-1.8%
$2.11
-$0.41
-16.3%
$0.36
14.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$2.28
-$0.24
-9.5%
$1.84
-$0.68
-27.0%
$0.44
19.3%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
6.0%
$2.23
-$0.29
-11.3%
$1.98
-$0.54
-21.4%
$0.25
11.4%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$2.23
-$0.29
-11.5%
$1.95
-$0.57
-22.6%
$0.28
12.6%
—
LOSS
6.0%
$2.00
-$0.52
-20.6%
$1.62
-$0.90
-35.7%
$0.38
19.0%
—
LOSS
14.0%
$1.90
-$0.62
-24.4%
$1.85
-$0.67
-26.6%
$0.05
2.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-26|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-33|Mil-Spec Grade|stattrak",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14908,
"output_skin_id": "skin-204c9ef36369",
"realistic_value": 2.65,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Hybrid",
"conservative_value": 2.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:19.102917Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-204c9ef36369.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.10016312499999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-2c04c0201892",
"realistic_value": 4.1905,
"optimistic_value": 4.11,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Block-18",
"conservative_value": 3.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:45:50.971922Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2c04c0201892.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14908,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0e160542d6d4",
"realistic_value": 4.4305,
"optimistic_value": 4.42,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Etch Lord",
"conservative_value": 3.79,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:47.953436Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0e160542d6d4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.14908,
"output_skin_id": "skin-48f9126df040",
"realistic_value": 3.3205,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "MP7 | Just Smile",
"conservative_value": 2.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:32.320445Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-48f9126df040.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13999999999999999,
"output_float": 0.09225964879999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d0653c0aaf2f",
"realistic_value": 1.9044999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.88,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Analog Input",
"conservative_value": 1.85,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Kilowatt Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:34:48.600665Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d0653c0aaf2f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.119264,
"output_skin_id": "skin-736275bed39d",
"realistic_value": 2.2305,
"optimistic_value": 2.22,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Connexion",
"conservative_value": 1.95,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Galil AR | Connexion (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T10:58:17.794467Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-736275bed39d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.14908,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c16825526581",
"realistic_value": 2.2805,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Allure",
"conservative_value": 1.84,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Allure (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:11:49.798269Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c16825526581.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.14908,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0fd1ba0e61e0",
"realistic_value": 2.4739999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 2.46,
"output_full_name": "MAG-7 | Monster Call",
"conservative_value": 2.11,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Monster Call (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T10:10:03.152892Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fd1ba0e61e0.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.119264,
"output_skin_id": "skin-527de8ce168e",
"realistic_value": 2,
"optimistic_value": 2,
"output_full_name": "MP5-SD | Kitbash",
"conservative_value": 1.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Kitbash (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:39:50.989934Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-527de8ce168e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.06,
"output_float": 0.14908,
"output_skin_id": "skin-609ca5fc7896",
"realistic_value": 2.234,
"optimistic_value": 2.15,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brother",
"conservative_value": 1.98,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Fracture Collection",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Brother (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:18:00.818698Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-609ca5fc7896.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_dbe72826b389c65977110dc0",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "507361123691914033",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:51.169312Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-7e9cf6e60b9f",
"listing_id": "494976390476283018",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P90 | Freight (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P90 | Freight",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7e9cf6e60b9f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:47.942771Z"
},
{
"price": 0.19,
"skin_id": "skin-d45805538999",
"listing_id": "508487189339347994",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-26",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ P2000 | Gnarled (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Gnarled",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d45805538999.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:51.169312Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "514116741798137334",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:59.300666Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "527626690807043180",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:59.300666Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-543d85d8ca60",
"listing_id": "523123091065987798",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MAC-10 | Light Box",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-543d85d8ca60.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:29:59.300666Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-8d6879f0a2bc",
"listing_id": "499480042829003797",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hideout (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Hideout",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d6879f0a2bc.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:23:25.545663Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-baa1adba3189",
"listing_id": "525375522204066055",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Nova | Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Nova | Dark Sigil",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-baa1adba3189.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:44:41.778543Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-8c2ae17ac090",
"listing_id": "498353924436499339",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ XM1014 | Irezumi (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Irezumi",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8c2ae17ac090.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:40.970263Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-80f2ee4e940f",
"listing_id": "515242641502660669",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-33",
"market_hash_name": "StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Slag (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Slag",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-80f2ee4e940f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:37:43.994743Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": true,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|stattrak|10|collection-set-community-26:3+collection-set-community-33:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested ST | Block-18 14.0% $4.19 Etch Lord 14.0% $2.35 Analog Input 14.0% $1.90 Just Smile 14.0% $1.56 Hybrid 14.0% $1.47 Monster Call 6.0% $1.11 | $4.19 +126.5% | $1.91 +3.2% | 42.0% | +49.5% | $1.85 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×3+The Kilowatt Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Etch Lord 14.0% $13.06 Brother 6.0% $11.85 Just Smile 14.0% $9.31 Block-18 14.0% $8.90 Monster Call 6.0% $8.28 Hybrid 14.0% $7.89 | $13.06 +59.2% | $8.42 +2.7% | 54.0% | +24.1% | $8.20 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×1+The Kilowatt Collection ×9 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 18.0% $4.45 Block-18 18.0% $4.19 Just Smile 18.0% $3.34 Hybrid 18.0% $2.65 Monster Call 2.0% $2.47 Allure 2.0% $2.28 | $4.45 +64.3% | $3.20 +18.1% | 54.0% | +27.2% | $2.71 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×2+The Kilowatt Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 16.0% $4.43 Block-18 16.0% $4.19 Just Smile 16.0% $3.32 Hybrid 16.0% $2.65 Monster Call 4.0% $2.47 Allure 4.0% $2.28 | $4.43 +69.1% | $3.09 +17.9% | 64.0% | +28.6% | $2.62 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×4+The Kilowatt Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 12.0% $4.43 Block-18 12.0% $4.19 Just Smile 12.0% $3.32 Hybrid 12.0% $2.65 Monster Call 8.0% $2.47 Allure 8.0% $2.28 | $4.43 +80.1% | $2.88 +17.0% | 56.0% | +30.6% | $2.46 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear ST | Etch Lord 10.0% $4.43 Block-18 10.0% $4.19 Just Smile 10.0% $3.32 Hybrid 10.0% $2.65 Monster Call 10.0% $2.47 Allure 10.0% $2.28 | $4.43 +86.2% | $2.77 +16.4% | 50.0% | +30.9% | $2.38 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×7+The Kilowatt Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Etch Lord 6.0% $13.06 Brother 14.0% $11.85 Just Smile 6.0% $9.31 Block-18 6.0% $8.90 Monster Call 14.0% $8.87 Hybrid 6.0% $7.89 | $13.06 +80.6% | $8.18 +13.1% | 66.0% | +25.9% | $7.23 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Kilowatt Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Etch Lord 8.0% $13.06 Brother 12.0% $11.85 Just Smile 8.0% $9.31 Block-18 8.0% $8.90 Monster Call 12.0% $8.87 Hybrid 8.0% $7.89 | $13.06 +79.1% | $8.24 +13.1% | 68.0% | +26.0% | $7.29 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×9+The Kilowatt Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New ST | Etch Lord 2.0% $13.06 Brother 18.0% $11.85 Just Smile 2.0% $9.31 Block-18 2.0% $8.90 Monster Call 18.0% $8.87 Hybrid 2.0% $7.89 | $13.06 +76.9% | $8.05 +9.1% | 62.0% | +24.5% | $7.38 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fracture Collection ×5+The Kilowatt Collection ×5 Restricted → Classified Field-Tested ST | Black Lotus  16.7% $23.51 Jawbreaker  16.7% $14.90 Tooth Fairy  16.7% $11.12 Vogue  16.7% $10.20 Olympus  16.7% $8.60 Entombed  16.7% $6.95 | $23.51 +116.9% | $12.55 +15.7% | 50.0% | +50.6% | $10.84 | — |
The Fracture Collection ×6+The Kilowatt Collection ×4 Classified → Covert Battle-Scarred ST | Inheritance  20.0% $143.34 Printstream  30.0% $94.30 Legion of Anubis  30.0% $62.05 Chrome Cannon  20.0% $46.53 | $143.34 +88.5% | $84.88 +11.6% | 50.0% | +44.8% | $76.06 | — |