The Fever Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Sure Grip
2x $0.12
Nexus
1x $0.13
Memorial
2x $0.14
Late Night Transit
2x $0.50
Green Line
3x $0.58
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
16.7% $9.68
Charged Up
16.7% $7.55
Derailment
16.7% $7.13
Rising Sun
10.0% $0.79
Serpent Strike
10.0% $0.77
Control
10.0% $0.77
Max Win
$9.68 (+176.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$4.44 (+26.9%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+107.5%
Cost
$3.50
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.50
Ask Price EV $4.44 (+26.9%)
Bid Price EV $4.23 (+21.0%)
Ask Profit $0.94 (+26.9%)
Bid Profit $0.73 (+21.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.21 (+5.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.94
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.73
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $9.68 (+176.5%)
Worst Case $0.71 (-79.7%)
Volatility +107.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$4.62
Avg Loss -$2.74
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.71 (-79.7%)
Std Dev $3.76
Avg Norm Float 0.3294
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 148h 7m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Field-Tested
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Nexus
—
Field-Tested
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SSG 08 | Memorial
—
Field-Tested
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
UMP-45 | Late Night Transit
—
Battle-Scarred
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Well-Worn
$0.62 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 26M 20S //TOTAL COST $3.50 //ASK PRICE EV $4.44 //BID PRICE EV $4.23 //ASK PROFIT $0.94 (+26.9%) //BID PROFIT $0.73 (+21.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $9.68 //VOLATILITY +107.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.7%
$9.68
+$6.18
+176.5%
$9.66
+$6.16
+176.0%
$0.02
0.2%
—
BIG WIN
16.7%
$7.55
+$4.05
+115.7%
$7.29
+$3.79
+108.3%
$0.26
3.4%
—
BIG WIN
16.7%
$7.13
+$3.63
+103.7%
$6.40
+$2.90
+82.9%
$0.73
10.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.79
-$2.71
-77.4%
$0.72
-$2.78
-79.4%
$0.07
8.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.77
-$2.73
-77.9%
$0.66
-$2.84
-81.1%
$0.11
14.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.77
-$2.73
-78.0%
$0.66
-$2.84
-81.1%
$0.11
14.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.76
-$2.74
-78.2%
$0.70
-$2.80
-80.0%
$0.06
8.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.71
-$2.79
-79.7%
$0.69
-$2.81
-80.3%
$0.02
2.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.23058699999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 7.1295,
"optimistic_value": 7.07,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 6.4,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T01:40:25.278030Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.36964539999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 9.677,
"optimistic_value": 9.67,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 9.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:20:14.850350Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.32941,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 7.547999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 7.52,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 7.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:25:51.132453Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.18776369999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 0.774,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:30:42.543846Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.26319694295,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 0.77,
"optimistic_value": 0.77,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 0.66,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-06T06:54:02.871108Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.32941,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 0.7905,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 0.72,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:22:23.659961Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.31312034609,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 0.7635,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:20:22.922025Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.23058699999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 0.7104999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 0.7,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 0.69,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:03:58.396855Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d6ad083b702ee6e194a0a18f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "509613142167425523",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:18:48.433284Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-038541568496",
"listing_id": "519746241188372660",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Nexus (Field-Tested)",
"name": "MP9 | Nexus",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-038541568496.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:15:26.447630Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "507361289453186113",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:18:48.433284Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "511864836540922581",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:34:49.202290Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-a8cc985f8710",
"listing_id": "506235223785210480",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Memorial (Field-Tested)",
"name": "SSG 08 | Memorial",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a8cc985f8710.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:34:49.202290Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "523123888073168722",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:08.322796Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-d5765bdffe44",
"listing_id": "510739041953634622",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Battle-Scarred)",
"name": "UMP-45 | Late Night Transit",
"wear_name": "Battle-Scarred",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d5765bdffe44.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:29:08.322796Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "520872141037677576",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:07.853615Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "490472790737415795",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:07.853615Z"
},
{
"price": 0.62,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "524249840858869023",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Well-Worn)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:23:07.853615Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:5+collection-set-train-2025:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Charged Up 16.7% $65.07 Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $44.39 Rising Sun 10.0% $9.18 Wave Breaker 10.0% $8.82 Control 10.0% $7.99 | $65.07 +144.5% | $32.51 +22.2% | 50.0% | +87.8% | $26.61 | — |
The Fever Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $44.39 Charged Up 16.7% $22.78 Tosai 10.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 10.0% $4.28 Rising Sun 10.0% $1.80 | $64.86 +236.8% | $23.38 +21.4% | 50.0% | +113.7% | $19.26 | — |
The Fever Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Well-Worn | Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Charged Up 16.7% $5.48 Whiteout 16.7% $5.23 Serpent Strike 10.0% $0.77 Control 10.0% $0.77 Tosai 10.0% $0.71 | $7.13 +118.0% | $3.34 +2.0% | 50.0% | +73.4% | $3.27 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.68 Charged Up 20.0% $7.75 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Rising Sun 8.0% $0.79 Serpent Strike 8.0% $0.77 Control 8.0% $0.77 | $9.68 +134.3% | $5.22 +26.4% | 60.0% | +79.3% | $4.13 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.68 Charged Up 23.3% $7.55 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Rising Sun 6.0% $0.79 Serpent Strike 6.0% $0.77 Control 6.0% $0.77 | $9.68 +98.7% | $5.91 +21.4% | 70.0% | +61.7% | $4.87 | — |
The Fever Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 13.3% $9.67 Charged Up 13.3% $7.53 Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Rising Sun 12.0% $0.79 Serpent Strike 12.0% $0.77 Control 12.0% $0.77 | $9.67 +214.1% | $3.70 +20.1% | 40.0% | +109.4% | $3.08 | — |
The Fever Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 26.7% $64.86 Derailment 26.7% $43.71 Charged Up 26.7% $22.86 Tosai 4.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 4.0% $4.28 Rising Sun 4.0% $1.80 | $64.86 +115.1% | $35.60 +18.0% | 53.3% | +67.4% | $30.16 | — |
The Fever Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Derailment 10.0% $44.39 Charged Up 10.0% $22.78 Tosai 14.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 14.0% $4.28 Rising Sun 14.0% $1.82 | $64.86 +406.0% | $15.13 +18.0% | 30.0% | +155.3% | $12.82 | — |
The Fever Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 6.7% $64.86 Derailment 6.7% $44.39 Charged Up 6.7% $22.78 Tosai 16.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 16.0% $4.28 Rising Sun 16.0% $1.82 | $64.86 +560.5% | $11.00 +12.1% | 20.0% | +177.8% | $9.82 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  20.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  20.0% $294.44 Searing Rage  20.0% $50.80 Shinobu  20.0% $49.17 K.O. Factory  20.0% $34.39 | $597.10 +286.5% | $205.18 +32.8% | 40.0% | +141.5% | $154.48 | — |