The Fever Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Mockingbird
1x $1.74
Resupply
1x $2.30
Sure Grip
2x $2.36
PC-GRN
1x $2.57
Run Run Run
2x $2.27
2A2F
1x $2.69
↓
Possible Outputs
Whiteout
16.7% $64.86
Charged Up
16.7% $63.69
Derailment
16.7% $42.56
Rising Sun
10.0% $9.18
Wave Breaker
10.0% $8.82
Control
10.0% $7.99
Max Win
$64.86 (+145.0%)
EV (ROI %)
$31.95 (+20.7%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+98.8%
Cost
$26.47
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $26.47
Ask Price EV $31.95 (+20.7%)
Bid Price EV $30.08 (+13.6%)
Ask Profit $5.48 (+20.7%)
Bid Profit $3.61 (+13.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.88 (+7.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$5.48
Bid Slippage Buffer +$3.61
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $64.86 (+145.0%)
Worst Case $4.02 (-84.8%)
Volatility +98.8%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 50.0%
Avg Win +$30.57
Avg Loss -$19.61
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.02 (-84.8%)
Std Dev $26.16
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 149h 54m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
XM1014 | Mockingbird
—
Factory New
$1.74 Float: HIDDEN
MAG-7 | Resupply
—
Factory New
$2.30 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Factory New
$2.36 Float: HIDDEN
USP-S | PC-GRN
—
Factory New
$2.57 Float: HIDDEN
P2000 | Sure Grip
—
Factory New
$2.87 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Run Run Run
—
Minimal Wear
$2.27 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | 2A2F
—
Minimal Wear
$2.69 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Minimal Wear
$3.11 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Run Run Run
—
Minimal Wear
$3.18 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Green Line
—
Minimal Wear
$3.38 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 27M 20S //TOTAL COST $26.47 //ASK PRICE EV $31.95 //BID PRICE EV $30.08 //ASK PROFIT $5.48 (+20.7%) //BID PROFIT $3.61 (+13.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $64.86 //VOLATILITY +98.8% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
16.7%
$64.86
+$38.39
+145.0%
$61.61
+$35.14
+132.8%
$3.25
5.0%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.7%
$63.69
+$37.22
+140.6%
$58.44
+$31.97
+120.8%
$5.25
8.2%
—
BIG WIN
16.7%
$42.56
+$16.09
+60.8%
$40.17
+$13.70
+51.8%
$2.39
5.6%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$9.18
-$17.29
-65.3%
$8.80
-$17.67
-66.8%
$0.38
4.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$8.82
-$17.65
-66.7%
$8.77
-$17.70
-66.9%
$0.05
0.5%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$7.99
-$18.48
-69.8%
$7.97
-$18.50
-69.9%
$0.02
0.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.31
-$22.16
-83.7%
$4.30
-$22.17
-83.8%
$0.01
0.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$4.02
-$22.45
-84.8%
$3.88
-$22.59
-85.3%
$0.14
3.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-35|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-train-2025|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.048915999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9fc289ff7b61",
"realistic_value": 42.5615,
"optimistic_value": 42.32,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment",
"conservative_value": 40.17,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Derailment (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:42.474955Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9fc289ff7b61.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.1256872,
"output_skin_id": "skin-20f06d331186",
"realistic_value": 64.8635,
"optimistic_value": 64.79,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout",
"conservative_value": 61.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Whiteout (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:42:45.497220Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-20f06d331186.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16666666666666666,
"output_float": 0.06988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9446ef74272b",
"realistic_value": 63.693,
"optimistic_value": 62.72,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up",
"conservative_value": 58.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Train 2025 Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:32.306912Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9446ef74272b.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.039831599999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-4515a7cdcc74",
"realistic_value": 4.02,
"optimistic_value": 3.88,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike",
"conservative_value": 3.88,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:07:52.500677Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-4515a7cdcc74.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0558337706,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f2567cfebfb7",
"realistic_value": 7.9935,
"optimistic_value": 7.99,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Control",
"conservative_value": 7.97,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Control (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:32:52.402313Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f2567cfebfb7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06988,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aef077455139",
"realistic_value": 9.1805,
"optimistic_value": 9.17,
"output_full_name": "Nova | Rising Sun",
"conservative_value": 8.8,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Rising Sun (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T09:31:17.054530Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aef077455139.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06642436412,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff75c4a68dbd",
"realistic_value": 8.8175,
"optimistic_value": 8.8,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker",
"conservative_value": 8.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Wave Breaker (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:24.348421Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff75c4a68dbd.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.048915999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-27a11235665e",
"realistic_value": 4.3134999999999994,
"optimistic_value": 4.31,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai",
"conservative_value": 4.3,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Fever Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:50.184253Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-27a11235665e.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d6ad083b702ee6e194a0a18f",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 1.74,
"skin_id": "skin-e0eec3353ea4",
"listing_id": "493850543432056648",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Mockingbird",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e0eec3353ea4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:35:01.990013Z"
},
{
"price": 2.3,
"skin_id": "skin-78ea15f33e22",
"listing_id": "528753387757505925",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "MAG-7 | Resupply (Factory New)",
"name": "MAG-7 | Resupply",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-78ea15f33e22.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:24.736258Z"
},
{
"price": 2.36,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "521997822481944714",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:14.914459Z"
},
{
"price": 2.57,
"skin_id": "skin-0fbe55711fa6",
"listing_id": "508487242221635978",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | PC-GRN (Factory New)",
"name": "USP-S | PC-GRN",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0fbe55711fa6.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:24:31.900181Z"
},
{
"price": 2.87,
"skin_id": "skin-8bda61ff439a",
"listing_id": "502857524062903528",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-35",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New)",
"name": "P2000 | Sure Grip",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8bda61ff439a.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:30:14.914459Z"
},
{
"price": 2.27,
"skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"listing_id": "514116741797213934",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:48.990202Z"
},
{
"price": 2.69,
"skin_id": "skin-a57c016a2f7d",
"listing_id": "523123940968972186",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | 2A2F (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "FAMAS | 2A2F",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a57c016a2f7d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:22:00.073440Z"
},
{
"price": 3.11,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "512990841907798343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:34.613138Z"
},
{
"price": 3.18,
"skin_id": "skin-96a9aaa2cbe5",
"listing_id": "527627540537458508",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | Run Run Run",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96a9aaa2cbe5.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:27:48.990202Z"
},
{
"price": 3.38,
"skin_id": "skin-7976ca00d006",
"listing_id": "659356415310663082",
"collection_id": "collection-set-train-2025",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Green Line (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Green Line",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7976ca00d006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:14:34.613138Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-35:5+collection-set-train-2025:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 16.7% $9.67 Charged Up 16.7% $7.46 Derailment 16.7% $7.13 Rising Sun 10.0% $0.79 Serpent Strike 10.0% $0.77 Control 10.0% $0.77 | $9.67 +175.6% | $4.42 +26.0% | 50.0% | +95.9% | $3.51 | — |
The Fever Collection ×5+The Train 2025 Collection ×5 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 16.7% $64.86 Derailment 16.7% $42.56 Charged Up 16.7% $22.79 Tosai 10.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 10.0% $4.02 Rising Sun 10.0% $1.80 | $64.86 +238.4% | $23.05 +20.2% | 50.0% | +113.3% | $19.17 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×4+The Train 2025 Collection ×6 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 20.0% $9.67 Charged Up 20.0% $7.53 Derailment 20.0% $7.13 Rising Sun 8.0% $0.79 Serpent Strike 8.0% $0.77 Control 8.0% $0.77 | $9.67 +135.4% | $5.17 +25.8% | 60.0% | +79.1% | $4.11 | — |
The Fever Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 13.3% $9.67 Charged Up 13.3% $7.44 Derailment 13.3% $7.13 Rising Sun 12.0% $0.79 Serpent Strike 12.0% $0.77 Control 12.0% $0.77 | $9.67 +219.3% | $3.68 +21.6% | 40.0% | +110.9% | $3.03 | — |
The Fever Collection ×3+The Train 2025 Collection ×7 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Whiteout 23.3% $9.67 Charged Up 23.3% $7.46 Derailment 23.3% $7.13 Rising Sun 6.0% $0.79 Serpent Strike 6.0% $0.77 Control 6.0% $0.77 | $9.67 +97.0% | $5.89 +20.0% | 70.0% | +61.0% | $4.91 | — |
The Fever Collection ×2+The Train 2025 Collection ×8 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 26.7% $64.86 Derailment 26.7% $42.56 Charged Up 26.7% $22.67 Tosai 4.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 4.0% $4.02 Rising Sun 4.0% $1.80 | $64.86 +117.7% | $35.23 +18.2% | 53.3% | +68.2% | $29.79 | — |
The Fever Collection ×7+The Train 2025 Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Minimal Wear | Whiteout 10.0% $64.86 Derailment 10.0% $43.71 Charged Up 10.0% $22.86 Tosai 14.0% $4.31 Serpent Strike 14.0% $4.28 Rising Sun 14.0% $1.80 | $64.86 +396.3% | $15.06 +15.2% | 30.0% | +151.7% | $13.07 | — |
The Fever Collection ×8+The Train 2025 Collection ×2 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested | Derailment 6.7% $14.78 Whiteout 6.7% $9.67 Charged Up 6.7% $7.46 Serpent Strike 16.0% $1.49 Tosai 16.0% $1.30 Rising Sun 16.0% $0.79 | $14.78 +464.2% | $2.94 +12.2% | 20.0% | +149.0% | $2.62 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Fever Collection ×6+The Train 2025 Collection ×4 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Hellish  20.0% $597.10 Latte Rush  20.0% $294.44 Searing Rage  20.0% $50.78 Shinobu  20.0% $49.17 K.O. Factory  20.0% $34.39 | $597.10 +279.7% | $205.18 +30.5% | 40.0% | +139.0% | $157.26 | — |