The 2018 Inferno Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Nitro
2x $0.35
Candy Apple
1x $0.61
Banana Leaf
1x $0.16
Picnic
2x $0.16
Coral Paisley
2x $0.23
XoooM
2x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
17.5% $6.16
Check Engine
7.5% $3.72
Converter
7.5% $3.67
Sky Mandala
17.5% $3.46
Hand Brake
7.5% $2.87
Warm Blooded
17.5% $2.28
Max Win
$6.16 (+104.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.39 (+12.5%)
Win %
50.0%
Volatility
+47.0%
Cost
$3.01
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $3.01
Ask Price EV $3.39 (+12.5%)
Bid Price EV $3.32 (+10.3%)
Ask Profit $0.38 (+12.5%)
Bid Profit $0.31 (+10.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.07 (+2.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.38
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.31
Risk
Win Probability 50.0%
Loss Probability 50.0%
Best Case $6.16 (+104.6%)
Worst Case $1.79 (-40.5%)
Volatility +47.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 7.5%
Avg Win +$1.47
Avg Loss -$0.71
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.79 (-40.5%)
Std Dev $1.41
Avg Norm Float 0.0999
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 10h 52m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Minimal Wear
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Candy Apple
—
Factory New
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 38M 53S //TOTAL COST $3.01 //ASK PRICE EV $3.39 //BID PRICE EV $3.32 //ASK PROFIT $0.38 (+12.5%) //BID PROFIT $0.31 (+10.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 50.0% //BEST CASE $6.16 //VOLATILITY +47.0% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
17.5%
$6.16
+$3.15
+104.6%
$6.12
+$3.11
+103.3%
$0.04
0.6%
—
WIN
7.5%
$3.72
+$0.71
+23.7%
$3.65
+$0.64
+21.3%
$0.07
2.0%
—
WIN
7.5%
$3.67
+$0.66
+22.0%
$3.60
+$0.59
+19.6%
$0.07
2.0%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
17.5%
$3.46
+$0.45
+15.1%
$3.42
+$0.41
+13.6%
$0.04
1.3%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$2.87
-$0.14
-4.7%
$2.60
-$0.41
-13.6%
$0.27
9.4%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
17.5%
$2.28
-$0.73
-24.1%
$2.25
-$0.76
-25.2%
$0.03
1.5%
—
LOSS
17.5%
$2.28
-$0.73
-24.3%
$2.25
-$0.76
-25.2%
$0.03
1.2%
—
NUKE
7.5%
$1.79
-$1.22
-40.5%
$1.67
-$1.34
-44.5%
$0.12
6.7%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.06495450000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.1579999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:00.132495Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.069951,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.464,
"optimistic_value": 3.45,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:32:11.052988Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.069951,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.284,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:40.184006Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.0659538,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.2775,
"optimistic_value": 2.26,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:54:12.721140Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.03997200000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff8258cd7dac",
"realistic_value": 3.6719999999999997,
"optimistic_value": 3.63,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Converter",
"conservative_value": 3.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Converter (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:31:33.526430Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff8258cd7dac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.09993,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c0a577a1a5b2",
"realistic_value": 2.87,
"optimistic_value": 2.8,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake",
"conservative_value": 2.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:28:27.178325Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0a577a1a5b2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.0079944,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1e77412769d",
"realistic_value": 1.79,
"optimistic_value": 1.79,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light",
"conservative_value": 1.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:20:58.124965Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1e77412769d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.059958,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a2c7bfcb6607",
"realistic_value": 3.7245,
"optimistic_value": 3.7,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Check Engine",
"conservative_value": 3.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Check Engine (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T13:54:15.170860Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a2c7bfcb6607.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d6abebc1272f0ecd85ae9058",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "517494388633448878",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:42:22.494615Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "510738823414451986",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:42:22.494615Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-505c66da36c8",
"listing_id": "517494441498475618",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Candy Apple",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-505c66da36c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:26:37.158101Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "490472843633481339",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:23:55.185450Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "494976443342472234",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:26:38.683276Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "526501640650598945",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:26:38.683276Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "512990841908302919",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:26:09.401967Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "499479989895930289",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:26:09.401967Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "497228243055962837",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:07.972449Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "519746241188361932",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:21:07.972449Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-inferno-2:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 15.0% $2.93 Hand Brake 10.0% $2.00 Check Engine 10.0% $1.96 Converter 10.0% $1.91 Brake Light 10.0% $1.79 Sky Mandala 15.0% $1.62 | $2.93 +105.2% | $1.79 +25.4% | 70.0% | +31.9% | $1.43 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Converter 17.5% $3.67 Fraise Crane 7.5% $2.93 Hand Brake 17.5% $2.00 Check Engine 17.5% $1.96 Brake Light 17.5% $1.79 Sky Mandala 7.5% $1.62 | $3.67 +89.3% | $2.16 +11.5% | 60.0% | +36.5% | $1.94 | — |