The 2018 Inferno Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Nitro
1x $0.35
Candy Apple
2x $0.61
XoooM
4x $0.34
Banana Leaf
2x $0.37
Picnic
1x $0.41
↓
Possible Outputs
Hand Brake
7.5% $9.30
Fraise Crane
17.5% $6.16
Converter
7.5% $3.73
Check Engine
7.5% $3.72
Sky Mandala
17.5% $3.48
Warm Blooded
17.5% $2.28
Max Win
$9.30 (+67.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.87 (-30.3%)
Win %
25.0%
Volatility
+37.6%
Cost
$5.56
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.56
Ask Price EV $3.87 (-30.3%)
Bid Price EV $3.81 (-31.6%)
Ask Profit $-1.69 (-30.3%)
Bid Profit $-1.75 (-31.6%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.07 (+1.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$1.69
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.75
Risk
Win Probability 25.0%
Loss Probability 75.0%
Best Case $9.30 (+67.2%)
Worst Case $1.76 (-68.3%)
Volatility +37.6%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 75.0%
Avg Win +$1.54
Avg Loss -$2.76
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.76 (-68.3%)
Std Dev $2.09
Avg Norm Float 0.0698
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 31h 48m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Nitro
—
Minimal Wear
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Candy Apple
—
Factory New
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
PP-Bizon | Candy Apple
—
Factory New
$1.17 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.37 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 43M 11S //TOTAL COST $5.56 //ASK PRICE EV $3.87 //BID PRICE EV $3.81 //ASK PROFIT $-1.69 (-30.3%) //BID PROFIT $-1.75 (-31.6%) //WIN PROBABILITY 25.0% //BEST CASE $9.30 //VOLATILITY +37.6% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
7.5%
$9.30
+$3.74
+67.2%
$9.06
+$3.50
+62.9%
$0.24
2.6%
—
SMALL WIN
17.5%
$6.16
+$0.60
+10.8%
$6.12
+$0.56
+10.1%
$0.04
0.6%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$3.73
-$1.83
-32.9%
$3.60
-$1.96
-35.3%
$0.13
3.5%
—
LOSS
7.5%
$3.72
-$1.84
-33.0%
$3.65
-$1.91
-34.4%
$0.07
2.0%
—
LOSS
17.5%
$3.48
-$2.08
-37.3%
$3.42
-$2.14
-38.5%
$0.06
1.8%
—
NUKE
17.5%
$2.28
-$3.28
-59.0%
$2.25
-$3.31
-59.5%
$0.03
1.3%
—
NUKE
17.5%
$2.28
-$3.28
-59.0%
$2.25
-$3.31
-59.5%
$0.03
1.2%
—
NUKE
7.5%
$1.76
-$3.80
-68.3%
$1.67
-$3.89
-70.0%
$0.09
5.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno-2|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 3,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 7,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.045357,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.1579999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:00.132495Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.048845999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.484,
"optimistic_value": 3.47,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:19.425956Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.048845999999999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.2805,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:23.361731Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.175,
"output_float": 0.0460548,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.2775,
"optimistic_value": 2.26,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:34:31.456562Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.027912,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ff8258cd7dac",
"realistic_value": 3.729,
"optimistic_value": 3.68,
"output_full_name": "M4A4 | Converter",
"conservative_value": 3.6,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Converter (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:23:44.880488Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ff8258cd7dac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.06978,
"output_skin_id": "skin-c0a577a1a5b2",
"realistic_value": 9.298,
"optimistic_value": 9.2,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake",
"conservative_value": 9.06,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T07:51:31.434942Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0a577a1a5b2.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.0055823999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f1e77412769d",
"realistic_value": 1.7605,
"optimistic_value": 1.75,
"output_full_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light",
"conservative_value": 1.67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:44.715698Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f1e77412769d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.075,
"output_float": 0.041867999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a2c7bfcb6607",
"realistic_value": 3.7245,
"optimistic_value": 3.7,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Check Engine",
"conservative_value": 3.65,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The 2018 Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Check Engine (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:34:23.998202Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a2c7bfcb6607.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d6abebc1272f0ecd85ae9058",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-c0b7375a375d",
"listing_id": "501731842662370865",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Nitro",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-c0b7375a375d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:34:11.866466Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-505c66da36c8",
"listing_id": "517494441498475618",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Candy Apple",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-505c66da36c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:18:16.803430Z"
},
{
"price": 1.17,
"skin_id": "skin-505c66da36c8",
"listing_id": "517494441498468634",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno-2",
"market_hash_name": "PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Factory New)",
"name": "PP-Bizon | Candy Apple",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-505c66da36c8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:18:16.803430Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "521998040963374674",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:47.004446Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "514116741797246406",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:47.004446Z"
},
{
"price": 0.37,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "523123940969987242",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:37:26.625745Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "519746241188438324",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:47.004446Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "501731842662029657",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:37:26.625745Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "498354142900986799",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:40.003157Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "518620235867474188",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:36:47.004446Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-inferno-2:3+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:7"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×3+The Harlequin Collection ×7 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 17.5% $6.16 Converter 7.5% $3.73 Check Engine 7.5% $3.72 Sky Mandala 17.5% $3.48 Hand Brake 7.5% $2.76 Warm Blooded 17.5% $2.28 | $6.16 +109.5% | $3.38 +15.1% | 50.0% | +43.1% | $2.94 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×2+The Harlequin Collection ×8 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 20.0% $2.93 Hand Brake 5.0% $2.00 Check Engine 5.0% $1.95 Converter 5.0% $1.91 Brake Light 5.0% $1.76 Sky Mandala 20.0% $1.59 | $2.93 +124.0% | $1.77 +34.9% | 60.0% | +40.7% | $1.31 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 15.0% $2.93 Hand Brake 10.0% $2.00 Check Engine 10.0% $1.97 Converter 10.0% $1.91 Brake Light 10.0% $1.76 Sky Mandala 15.0% $1.63 | $2.93 +112.6% | $1.80 +30.7% | 70.0% | +32.8% | $1.38 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 22.5% $2.93 Hand Brake 2.5% $2.00 Check Engine 2.5% $1.96 Converter 2.5% $1.91 Brake Light 2.5% $1.76 Sky Mandala 22.5% $1.59 | $2.93 +112.6% | $1.72 +24.9% | 55.0% | +42.1% | $1.38 | — |
The 2018 Inferno Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Converter 17.5% $3.73 Fraise Crane 7.5% $2.93 Hand Brake 17.5% $2.00 Check Engine 17.5% $1.95 Brake Light 17.5% $1.76 Sky Mandala 7.5% $1.59 | $3.73 +86.5% | $2.17 +8.6% | 42.5% | +36.6% | $2.00 | — |