The Achroma Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Dark Chamber
1x $0.10
Aeolian Dark
2x $0.12
Snow Splash
1x $0.31
Banana Leaf
3x $0.16
Coral Paisley
2x $0.21
XoooM
1x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
15.0% $6.16
Sky Mandala
15.0% $3.46
Earth Mandala
15.0% $2.30
Warm Blooded
15.0% $2.27
The Daily Deagle
10.0% $2.20
Aeolian Light
10.0% $1.92
Max Win
$6.16 (+185.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.71 (+25.3%)
Win %
70.0%
Volatility
+76.5%
Cost
$2.16
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.16
Ask Price EV $2.71 (+25.3%)
Bid Price EV $2.66 (+23.4%)
Ask Profit $0.55 (+25.3%)
Bid Profit $0.50 (+23.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.04 (+1.9%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.55
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.50
Risk
Win Probability 70.0%
Loss Probability 30.0%
Best Case $6.16 (+185.1%)
Worst Case $0.74 (-65.7%)
Volatility +76.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 20.0%
Avg Win +$1.20
Avg Loss -$0.98
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.74 (-65.7%)
Std Dev $1.65
Avg Norm Float 0.0999
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 18m
Oldest Output Price 7h 42m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Minimal Wear
$0.10 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Snow Splash
—
Factory New
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.16 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.21 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Minimal Wear
$0.23 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 16M 59S //TOTAL COST $2.16 //ASK PRICE EV $2.71 //BID PRICE EV $2.66 //ASK PROFIT $0.55 (+25.3%) //BID PROFIT $0.50 (+23.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 70.0% //BEST CASE $6.16 //VOLATILITY +76.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
15.0%
$6.16
+$4.00
+185.1%
$6.12
+$3.96
+183.3%
$0.04
0.6%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
15.0%
$3.46
+$1.30
+60.4%
$3.42
+$1.26
+58.3%
$0.04
1.3%
—
SMALL WIN
15.0%
$2.30
+$0.14
+6.6%
$2.25
+$0.09
+4.2%
$0.05
2.3%
—
SMALL WIN EDGE FLOAT
15.0%
$2.27
+$0.11
+5.3%
$2.25
+$0.09
+4.2%
$0.02
1.1%
—
SMALL WIN
10.0%
$2.20
+$0.04
+2.0%
$2.19
+$0.03
+1.4%
$0.01
0.6%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$1.92
-$0.24
-11.1%
$1.86
-$0.30
-13.9%
$0.06
3.1%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.89
-$1.27
-58.6%
$0.83
-$1.33
-61.6%
$0.06
7.2%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$0.74
-$1.42
-65.7%
$0.71
-$1.45
-67.1%
$0.03
4.2%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.064922,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.1579999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:00.132495Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.06991599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.464,
"optimistic_value": 3.45,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:07.933633Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.06991599999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.2739999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 2.26,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:07.356203Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.0659208,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.3035,
"optimistic_value": 2.3,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:07.788357Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.079904,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 0.894,
"optimistic_value": 0.88,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 0.83,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:43.688472Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.05793039999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 2.2035,
"optimistic_value": 2.2,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 2.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:05:51.740881Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.07491,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 0.741,
"optimistic_value": 0.72,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 0.71,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T10:49:36.021081Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.064922,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 1.92,
"optimistic_value": 1.92,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 1.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:28:35.369144Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d5fa804cc8d1107279d36607",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.1,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "493850543431724080",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:13:27.471259Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "519746241188593664",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:13:41.209686Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "517493591332850710",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:13:41.209686Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-2787809612be",
"listing_id": "517494441497469094",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Snow Splash",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2787809612be.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:15:33.361580Z"
},
{
"price": 0.16,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "515242641501270025",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:29:23.477931Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "507361237008908833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:29:23.477931Z"
},
{
"price": 0.21,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "492724538183377989",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:30:07.818109Z"
},
{
"price": 0.23,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "509613036861256419",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:30:07.818109Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "518620341242882920",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:28.696921Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "494976443342182650",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:26:41.629177Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:4+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 10.0% $2.93 Sky Mandala 10.0% $1.58 Earth Mandala 10.0% $1.08 Warm Blooded 10.0% $1.05 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $0.90 Aeolian Light 15.0% $0.69 | $2.93 +271.4% | $1.02 +29.1% | 55.0% | +81.7% | $0.79 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 7.5% $2.93 Sky Mandala 7.5% $1.58 Earth Mandala 7.5% $1.08 Warm Blooded 7.5% $1.05 The Daily Deagle 17.5% $0.90 Creep 17.5% $0.89 | $2.93 +237.2% | $1.06 +22.2% | 65.0% | +62.2% | $0.87 | — |