The Achroma Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Vendetta
2x $0.28
Dark Chamber
1x $0.50
Aeolian Dark
1x $1.41
XoooM
2x $0.34
Banana Leaf
3x $0.35
Picnic
1x $0.39
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
15.0% $6.16
Sky Mandala
15.0% $3.48
Creep
10.0% $2.38
Earth Mandala
15.0% $2.28
Warm Blooded
15.0% $2.28
The Daily Deagle
10.0% $2.20
Max Win
$6.16 (+12.2%)
EV (ROI %)
$2.99 (-45.5%)
Win %
15.0%
Volatility
+25.7%
Cost
$5.49
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.49
Ask Price EV $2.99 (-45.5%)
Bid Price EV $2.95 (-46.2%)
Ask Profit $-2.50 (-45.5%)
Bid Profit $-2.54 (-46.2%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.04 (+0.7%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.50
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.54
Risk
Win Probability 15.0%
Loss Probability 85.0%
Best Case $6.16 (+12.2%)
Worst Case $1.89 (-65.6%)
Volatility +25.7%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 85.0%
Avg Win +$0.67
Avg Loss -$3.06
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.89 (-65.6%)
Std Dev $1.41
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 22m
Oldest Output Price 8h 51m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
FAMAS | Vendetta
—
Factory New
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Vendetta
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber
—
Factory New
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Aeolian Dark
—
Factory New
$1.41 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.35 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 30M 59S //TOTAL COST $5.49 //ASK PRICE EV $2.99 //BID PRICE EV $2.95 //ASK PROFIT $-2.50 (-45.5%) //BID PROFIT $-2.54 (-46.2%) //WIN PROBABILITY 15.0% //BEST CASE $6.16 //VOLATILITY +25.7% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
SMALL WIN
15.0%
$6.16
+$0.67
+12.2%
$6.12
+$0.63
+11.5%
$0.04
0.6%
—
LOSS
15.0%
$3.48
-$2.01
-36.5%
$3.42
-$2.07
-37.7%
$0.06
1.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.38
-$3.11
-56.6%
$2.34
-$3.15
-57.4%
$0.04
1.8%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$2.28
-$3.21
-58.4%
$2.25
-$3.24
-59.0%
$0.03
1.5%
—
NUKE
15.0%
$2.28
-$3.21
-58.5%
$2.25
-$3.24
-59.0%
$0.03
1.3%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.20
-$3.29
-59.9%
$2.19
-$3.30
-60.1%
$0.01
0.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.14
-$3.35
-61.0%
$2.10
-$3.39
-61.7%
$0.04
1.9%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$1.89
-$3.60
-65.6%
$1.86
-$3.63
-66.1%
$0.03
1.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 4,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 6,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.045409000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.1579999999999995,
"optimistic_value": 6.13,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:00.132495Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.048902,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.484,
"optimistic_value": 3.47,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:18.692949Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.048902,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.2805,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:25.924921Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.15,
"output_float": 0.046107600000000006,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.284,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:25.636998Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.05588800000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-784a6c99447c",
"realistic_value": 2.3835,
"optimistic_value": 2.38,
"output_full_name": "AUG | Creep",
"conservative_value": 2.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AUG | Creep (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:29:31.457432Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-784a6c99447c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0405188,
"output_skin_id": "skin-442d3266f2ac",
"realistic_value": 2.2035,
"optimistic_value": 2.2,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle",
"conservative_value": 2.19,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:11.342837Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-442d3266f2ac.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.052395000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-a5639c9731c1",
"realistic_value": 2.14,
"optimistic_value": 2.14,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape",
"conservative_value": 2.1,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Grip Tape (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T11:57:52.815628Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-a5639c9731c1.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.045409000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-59aaabe308c8",
"realistic_value": 1.8875,
"optimistic_value": 1.87,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light",
"conservative_value": 1.86,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Achroma Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Aeolian Light (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:16:14.514206Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-59aaabe308c8.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d5fa804cc8d1107279d36607",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-7f85393d2fb1",
"listing_id": "496102343226014039",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Vendetta",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f85393d2fb1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:32:34.671176Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-7f85393d2fb1",
"listing_id": "497228243055016469",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Vendetta (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Vendetta",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7f85393d2fb1.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:32:34.671176Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-f41134aec544",
"listing_id": "526501640650913045",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber (Factory New)",
"name": "R8 Revolver | Dark Chamber",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f41134aec544.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:19:04.631787Z"
},
{
"price": 1.41,
"skin_id": "skin-9449a702cb3c",
"listing_id": "527627487624374612",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-achroma",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Aeolian Dark",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9449a702cb3c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:27:31.149205Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "498354142900104547",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:34.980472Z"
},
{
"price": 0.35,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "511864941882113313",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:47.779263Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "509613089305422567",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:47.779263Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "526501640650770053",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:47.779263Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "523123940969352778",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:42.671042Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "518620235867474188",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T12:37:34.980472Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-achroma:4+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:6"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×4+The Harlequin Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 15.0% $6.16 Sky Mandala 15.0% $3.48 Earth Mandala 15.0% $2.28 Warm Blooded 15.0% $2.28 The Daily Deagle 10.0% $2.20 Aeolian Light 10.0% $1.89 | $6.16 +163.2% | $2.71 +15.7% | 30.0% | +60.8% | $2.34 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Achroma Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 12.5% $2.93 Sky Mandala 12.5% $1.64 Earth Mandala 12.5% $1.08 Warm Blooded 12.5% $1.04 The Daily Deagle 12.5% $0.93 Aeolian Light 12.5% $0.72 | $2.93 +245.2% | $1.14 +34.7% | 62.5% | +79.8% | $0.85 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×6+The Harlequin Collection ×4 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 10.0% $2.93 Sky Mandala 10.0% $1.62 Earth Mandala 10.0% $1.10 Warm Blooded 10.0% $1.05 The Daily Deagle 15.0% $0.99 Aeolian Light 15.0% $0.72 | $2.93 +276.2% | $1.04 +33.8% | 55.0% | +81.8% | $0.78 | — |
The Achroma Collection ×7+The Harlequin Collection ×3 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 7.5% $2.93 Sky Mandala 7.5% $1.64 Earth Mandala 7.5% $1.09 Warm Blooded 7.5% $1.05 Creep 17.5% $0.90 The Daily Deagle 17.5% $0.87 | $2.93 +233.4% | $1.07 +21.1% | 47.5% | +62.0% | $0.88 | — |