The Ascent Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Robin's Egg
1x $0.15
Electric Blue
3x $0.20
Sour Grapes
1x $0.32
Banana Leaf
3x $0.17
Picnic
1x $0.18
XoooM
1x $0.38
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
12.5% $6.21
Yeti Camo
10.0% $4.46
Sky Mandala
12.5% $3.47
Mint Fan
10.0% $3.37
Cobalt Paisley
10.0% $2.66
Royal Baroque
10.0% $2.64
Max Win
$6.21 (+136.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.30 (+25.6%)
Win %
65.0%
Volatility
+49.4%
Cost
$2.63
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.63
Ask Price EV $3.30 (+25.6%)
Bid Price EV $3.26 (+24.1%)
Ask Profit $0.67 (+25.6%)
Bid Profit $0.63 (+24.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.04 (+1.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.67
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.63
Risk
Win Probability 65.0%
Loss Probability 35.0%
Best Case $6.21 (+136.1%)
Worst Case $2.10 (-20.0%)
Volatility +49.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%
Avg Win +$1.25
Avg Loss -$0.40
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.10 (-20.0%)
Std Dev $1.30
Avg Norm Float 0.0999
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 21m
Oldest Output Price 10h 51m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
Negev | Sour Grapes
—
Minimal Wear
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | XoooM
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 01H 00M 59S //TOTAL COST $2.63 //ASK PRICE EV $3.30 //BID PRICE EV $3.26 //ASK PROFIT $0.67 (+25.6%) //BID PROFIT $0.63 (+24.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 65.0% //BEST CASE $6.21 //VOLATILITY +49.4% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
12.5%
$6.21
+$3.58
+136.1%
$6.18
+$3.55
+135.0%
$0.03
0.5%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$4.46
+$1.83
+69.6%
$4.43
+$1.80
+68.4%
$0.03
0.7%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
12.5%
$3.47
+$0.84
+32.1%
$3.42
+$0.79
+30.0%
$0.05
1.6%
—
WIN
10.0%
$3.37
+$0.74
+28.3%
$3.34
+$0.71
+27.0%
$0.03
1.0%
—
SMALL WIN
10.0%
$2.66
+$0.03
+1.0%
$2.64
+$0.01
+0.4%
$0.02
0.6%
—
PAPER WIN
10.0%
$2.64
+$0.01
+0.5%
$2.62
-$0.01
-0.4%
$0.02
0.9%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$2.28
-$0.35
-13.2%
$2.24
-$0.39
-14.8%
$0.04
1.9%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
12.5%
$2.27
-$0.36
-13.7%
$2.25
-$0.38
-14.4%
$0.02
0.9%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$2.10
-$0.53
-20.0%
$2.00
-$0.63
-24.0%
$0.10
4.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.064961,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.21,
"optimistic_value": 6.21,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:29:27.368062Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.06995799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.4739999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 3.46,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:06.985043Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.06995799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.27,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:07.568797Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.0659604,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.284,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:04.296012Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.059963999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3735,
"optimistic_value": 3.37,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:21.830156Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06995799999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.461,
"optimistic_value": 4.44,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:42:10.424256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.064961,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.657,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:22.654720Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.059963999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.6435,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:47:35.711853Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.059963999999999996,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.103,
"optimistic_value": 2.04,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:06:14.680265Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d4b66785195cff3678af1cb3",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "525375635593436155",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:01:41.508743Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "490472790737224023",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:04:02.435444Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "654852743754232591",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:04:02.435444Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "794463791558467223",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:04:02.435444Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-2891a487ea6c",
"listing_id": "524249787961282407",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Negev | Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Negev | Sour Grapes",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-2891a487ea6c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T02:59:37.157417Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "507361237008908833",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:16:55.302669Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "492724590626103273",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:00:50.077182Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "523123888072201834",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:30.277978Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-674317d93e09",
"listing_id": "519746188257913796",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | XoooM (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | XoooM",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-674317d93e09.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:09:03.973127Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "502856892587568880",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:13:30.277978Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:5+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:5"
}Related
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