The Ascent Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Gum Wall Camo
3x $0.36
Rose Nacre
1x $0.46
Ocean Topo
1x $1.05
Picnic
3x $0.18
Banana Leaf
1x $0.34
Coral Paisley
1x $0.80
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
12.5% $6.21
Yeti Camo
10.0% $4.46
Sky Mandala
12.5% $3.51
Mint Fan
10.0% $3.37
Cobalt Paisley
10.0% $2.66
Royal Baroque
10.0% $2.64
Max Win
$6.21 (+8.8%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.33 (-41.7%)
Win %
12.5%
Volatility
+22.5%
Cost
$5.71
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.71
Ask Price EV $3.33 (-41.7%)
Bid Price EV $3.26 (-42.8%)
Ask Profit $-2.38 (-41.7%)
Bid Profit $-2.45 (-42.8%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.06 (+1.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.38
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.45
Risk
Win Probability 12.5%
Loss Probability 87.5%
Best Case $6.21 (+8.8%)
Worst Case $2.27 (-60.2%)
Volatility +22.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 77.5%
Avg Win +$0.50
Avg Loss -$2.79
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.27 (-60.2%)
Std Dev $1.28
Avg Norm Float 0.0695
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Stale
Oldest Input Price 4m
Oldest Output Price 29m
Fill Confidence Medium
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Execution Sensitive
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.41 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Factory New
$0.46 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo
—
Factory New
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
MP7 | Coral Paisley
—
Factory New
$0.80 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 51M 06S //TOTAL COST $5.71 //ASK PRICE EV $3.33 //BID PRICE EV $3.26 //ASK PROFIT $-2.38 (-41.7%) //BID PROFIT $-2.45 (-42.8%) //WIN PROBABILITY 12.5% //BEST CASE $6.21 //VOLATILITY +22.5% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
SMALL WIN
12.5%
$6.21
+$0.50
+8.8%
$6.18
+$0.47
+8.2%
$0.03
0.5%
—
LOSS
10.0%
$4.46
-$1.25
-21.9%
$4.43
-$1.28
-22.4%
$0.03
0.7%
—
LOSS
12.5%
$3.51
-$2.20
-38.5%
$3.42
-$2.29
-40.1%
$0.09
2.7%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$3.37
-$2.34
-40.9%
$3.34
-$2.37
-41.5%
$0.03
1.0%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.66
-$3.05
-53.5%
$2.64
-$3.07
-53.8%
$0.02
0.6%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.64
-$3.07
-53.8%
$2.62
-$3.09
-54.1%
$0.02
0.8%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.30
-$3.41
-59.7%
$2.24
-$3.47
-60.8%
$0.06
2.8%
—
NUKE
10.0%
$2.27
-$3.44
-60.2%
$2.00
-$3.71
-65.0%
$0.27
12.0%
—
NUKE
12.5%
$2.27
-$3.44
-60.2%
$2.25
-$3.46
-60.6%
$0.02
0.9%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 5,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.045201000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.21,
"optimistic_value": 6.21,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:00.132495Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.048678,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.5135,
"optimistic_value": 3.51,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.42,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:16.221223Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.048678,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.27,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:14.386193Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.125,
"output_float": 0.045896400000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.3035,
"optimistic_value": 2.3,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.24,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:15.962603Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.041724000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3735,
"optimistic_value": 3.37,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:07.723007Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.048678,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.461,
"optimistic_value": 4.44,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:09.131172Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.045201000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.657,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:18.126531Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.041724000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T03:50:10.616732Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.041724000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.2739999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 2.26,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 2,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:17.966216Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_d4b66785195cff3678af1cb3",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "518620288314199036",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:26.924859Z"
},
{
"price": 0.41,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "521997988015573782",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:26.924859Z"
},
{
"price": 0.46,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "490471993876686363",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:00.309873Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "525375522202630771",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:26.924859Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"listing_id": "622201718380639200",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:55.219474Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "521997988015820490",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:49.792978Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "524249787961811211",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:30.144861Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "496102237884292343",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:42.516091Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "501731789729823857",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:15:42.516091Z"
},
{
"price": 0.8,
"skin_id": "skin-33edc6632c92",
"listing_id": "526501587736797929",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley (Factory New)",
"name": "MP7 | Coral Paisley",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-33edc6632c92.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T04:16:00.051077Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:5+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:5"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×5+The Harlequin Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 12.5% $6.21 Yeti Camo 10.0% $4.46 Sky Mandala 12.5% $3.51 Mint Fan 10.0% $3.37 Cobalt Paisley 10.0% $2.66 Royal Baroque 10.0% $2.64 | $6.21 +131.7% | $3.33 +24.2% | 45.0% | +41.9% | $2.68 | — |