The Danger Zone Collection ×9+The Overpass Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FT 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Field-Tested
Inputs
Black Sand
1x $0.29
Danger Close
8x $0.42
VariCamo Blue
1x $16.47
↓
Possible Outputs
Road Rash
5.0% $80.19
Pink DDPAT
5.0% $60.18
Nevermore
18.0% $5.00
Pipe Down
18.0% $1.99
Signal
18.0% $1.64
Flashback
18.0% $1.17
Max Win
$80.19 (+283.5%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.99 (-57.0%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+98.9%
Cost
$20.91
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $20.91
Ask Price EV $8.99 (-57.0%)
Bid Price EV $7.88 (-62.3%)
Ask Profit $-11.92 (-57.0%)
Bid Profit $-13.03 (-62.3%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.11 (+5.3%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$11.92
Bid Slippage Buffer -$13.03
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $80.19 (+283.5%)
Worst Case $1.16 (-94.4%)
Volatility +98.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$49.27
Avg Loss -$18.72
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.16 (-94.4%)
Std Dev $20.69
Avg Norm Float 0.1663
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 155h 39m
Oldest Output Price 154h 51m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Sawed-Off | Black Sand
—
Field-Tested
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Danger Close
—
Minimal Wear
$0.42 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Danger Close
—
Minimal Wear
$0.48 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Danger Close
—
Minimal Wear
$0.50 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Danger Close
—
Minimal Wear
$0.51 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Danger Close
—
Minimal Wear
$0.52 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Danger Close
—
Minimal Wear
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Danger Close
—
Minimal Wear
$0.58 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Danger Close
—
Minimal Wear
$0.60 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | VariCamo Blue
—
Field-Tested
$16.47 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 26M 58S //TOTAL COST $20.91 //ASK PRICE EV $8.99 //BID PRICE EV $7.88 //ASK PROFIT $-11.92 (-57.0%) //BID PROFIT $-13.03 (-62.3%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $80.19 //VOLATILITY +98.9% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
5.0%
$80.19
+$59.28
+283.5%
$67.00
+$46.09
+220.4%
$13.19
16.4%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$60.18
+$39.27
+187.8%
$53.22
+$32.31
+154.5%
$6.96
11.6%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$5.00
-$15.91
-76.1%
$4.99
-$15.92
-76.1%
$0.01
0.2%
—
NUKE EDGE FLOAT
18.0%
$1.99
-$18.92
-90.5%
$1.76
-$19.15
-91.6%
$0.23
11.4%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.64
-$19.27
-92.2%
$1.44
-$19.47
-93.1%
$0.20
12.2%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.17
-$19.74
-94.4%
$1.12
-$19.79
-94.6%
$0.05
4.4%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$1.16
-$19.75
-94.4%
$1.07
-$19.84
-94.9%
$0.09
8.0%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-21|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.10809500000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aa544d78f97f",
"realistic_value": 1.1635,
"optimistic_value": 1.16,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Scavenger",
"conservative_value": 1.07,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Danger Zone Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Scavenger (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:07:25.704989Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aa544d78f97f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.08315,
"output_skin_id": "skin-21f65eaf09eb",
"realistic_value": 1.641,
"optimistic_value": 1.62,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Signal",
"conservative_value": 1.44,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Danger Zone Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Signal (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:32:17.936085Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-21f65eaf09eb.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.14967,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5bd6cfc7249e",
"realistic_value": 1.9869999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 1.98,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Pipe Down",
"conservative_value": 1.76,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Danger Zone Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:27.318831Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5bd6cfc7249e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.06652000000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f0ba15d1b486",
"realistic_value": 5.0005,
"optimistic_value": 4.99,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Nevermore",
"conservative_value": 4.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Danger Zone Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Nevermore (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:10:13.687914Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0ba15d1b486.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.08315,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e44f13c59da",
"realistic_value": 1.1709999999999998,
"optimistic_value": 1.15,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Flashback",
"conservative_value": 1.12,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Danger Zone Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T14:39:54.518927Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e44f13c59da.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.183062,
"output_skin_id": "skin-665b5d16532c",
"realistic_value": 60.178,
"optimistic_value": 59.94,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT",
"conservative_value": 53.22,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:58:36.819809Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-665b5d16532c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.1663,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d7d145b204a5",
"realistic_value": 80.19149999999999,
"optimistic_value": 74.91,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Road Rash",
"conservative_value": 67,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Road Rash (Field-Tested)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T05:39:29.645920Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d7d145b204a5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_cfa170c79d0858765760b9d1",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-d85d77873f80",
"listing_id": "498354142899865003",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Field-Tested)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Black Sand",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d85d77873f80.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:59:22.713099Z"
},
{
"price": 0.42,
"skin_id": "skin-dd5985c30bd8",
"listing_id": "520872141039121284",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Danger Close (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Danger Close",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd5985c30bd8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:33.512079Z"
},
{
"price": 0.48,
"skin_id": "skin-dd5985c30bd8",
"listing_id": "512990841908767499",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Danger Close (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Danger Close",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd5985c30bd8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:33.512079Z"
},
{
"price": 0.5,
"skin_id": "skin-dd5985c30bd8",
"listing_id": "520871291150579952",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Danger Close (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Danger Close",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd5985c30bd8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:33.512079Z"
},
{
"price": 0.51,
"skin_id": "skin-dd5985c30bd8",
"listing_id": "506234592361216944",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Danger Close (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Danger Close",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd5985c30bd8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:33.512079Z"
},
{
"price": 0.52,
"skin_id": "skin-dd5985c30bd8",
"listing_id": "501731789729260277",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Danger Close (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Danger Close",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd5985c30bd8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:33.512079Z"
},
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-dd5985c30bd8",
"listing_id": "523123940969085658",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Danger Close (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Danger Close",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd5985c30bd8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:33.512079Z"
},
{
"price": 0.58,
"skin_id": "skin-dd5985c30bd8",
"listing_id": "497228243055201329",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Danger Close (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Danger Close",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd5985c30bd8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:33.512079Z"
},
{
"price": 0.6,
"skin_id": "skin-dd5985c30bd8",
"listing_id": "502856892585954352",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Danger Close (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Danger Close",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd5985c30bd8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T16:01:33.512079Z"
},
{
"price": 16.47,
"skin_id": "skin-3a57219a9579",
"listing_id": "651475044035708298",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested)",
"name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3a57219a9579.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:43:41.506212Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-21:9+collection-set-overpass:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Danger Zone Collection ×9+The Overpass Collection ×1 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 5.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 5.0% $135.44 Pipe Down 18.0% $17.76 Signal 18.0% $6.83 Flashback 18.0% $6.70 Nevermore 18.0% $5.00 | $701.51 +1816.7% | $49.18 +34.4% | 10.0% | +412.8% | $36.60 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Danger Zone Collection ×7+The Overpass Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 15.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 15.0% $135.44 Pipe Down 14.0% $17.76 Signal 14.0% $6.83 Flashback 14.0% $6.70 Nevermore 14.0% $5.00 | $701.51 +596.0% | $131.24 +30.2% | 30.0% | +237.2% | $100.79 | — |
The Danger Zone Collection ×6+The Overpass Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 20.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 20.0% $135.44 Pipe Down 12.0% $17.76 Signal 12.0% $6.83 Flashback 12.0% $6.70 Nevermore 12.0% $5.00 | $701.51 +383.1% | $172.28 +18.6% | 20.0% | +181.0% | $145.22 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Danger Zone Collection ×8+The Overpass Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Master Piece  20.0% $1,330.91 Phosphor  26.7% $30.93 Mecha Industries  26.7% $24.35 Momentum  26.7% $20.53 | $1,330.91 +481.9% | $286.40 +25.2% | 20.0% | +228.4% | $228.71 | — |