The Danger Zone Collection ×9+The Overpass Collection ×1
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted FN 10 items
Contract
Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New
Inputs
Danger Close
3x $0.54
Wood Fired
1x $1.66
Modest Threat
3x $1.85
Black Sand
2x $3.33
VariCamo Blue
1x $19.39
↓
Possible Outputs
Road Rash
5.0% $701.51
Pink DDPAT
5.0% $135.44
Pipe Down
18.0% $17.76
Signal
18.0% $6.83
Flashback
18.0% $6.70
Nevermore
18.0% $5.05
Max Win
$701.51 (+1747.1%)
EV (ROI %)
$49.19 (+29.5%)
Win %
10.0%
Volatility
+400.9%
Cost
$37.98
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $37.98
Ask Price EV $49.19 (+29.5%)
Bid Price EV $37.60 (-1.0%)
Ask Profit $11.21 (+29.5%)
Bid Profit $-0.38 (-1.0%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $11.59 (+30.5%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$11.21
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.38
Risk
Win Probability 10.0%
Loss Probability 90.0%
Best Case $701.51 (+1747.1%)
Worst Case $4.44 (-88.3%)
Volatility +400.9%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 90.0%
Avg Win +$380.49
Avg Loss -$29.82
Bottom 5% Outcome $4.44 (-88.3%)
Std Dev $152.27
Avg Norm Float 0.0699
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 24m
Oldest Output Price 154h 39m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
SG 553 | Danger Close
—
Minimal Wear
$0.54 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Danger Close
—
Minimal Wear
$0.75 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Danger Close
—
Minimal Wear
$0.88 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Wood Fired
—
Factory New
$1.66 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Modest Threat
—
Factory New
$1.85 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Modest Threat
—
Factory New
$2.69 Float: HIDDEN
MP9 | Modest Threat
—
Factory New
$2.70 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Black Sand
—
Factory New
$3.33 Float: HIDDEN
Sawed-Off | Black Sand
—
Factory New
$4.19 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | VariCamo Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$19.39 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 30M 48S //TOTAL COST $37.98 //ASK PRICE EV $49.19 //BID PRICE EV $37.60 //ASK PROFIT $11.21 (+29.5%) //BID PROFIT $-0.38 (-1.0%) //WIN PROBABILITY 10.0% //BEST CASE $701.51 //VOLATILITY +400.9% //
Possible Outputs · 7
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
5.0%
$701.51
+$663.53
+1747.1%
$490.79
+$452.81
+1192.2%
$210.72
30.0%
—
BIG WIN
5.0%
$135.44
+$97.46
+256.6%
$116.29
+$78.31
+206.2%
$19.15
14.1%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$17.76
-$20.22
-53.2%
$17.45
-$20.53
-54.1%
$0.31
1.7%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$6.83
-$31.15
-82.0%
$6.81
-$31.17
-82.1%
$0.02
0.3%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$6.70
-$31.28
-82.4%
$6.58
-$31.40
-82.7%
$0.12
1.8%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$5.05
-$32.93
-86.7%
$5.00
-$32.98
-86.8%
$0.05
1.0%
—
NUKE
18.0%
$4.44
-$33.54
-88.3%
$4.41
-$33.57
-88.4%
$0.03
0.8%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-community-21|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 9,
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-overpass|Mil-Spec Grade|normal",
"item_count": 1,
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.045461,
"output_skin_id": "skin-aa544d78f97f",
"realistic_value": 4.4445,
"optimistic_value": 4.42,
"output_full_name": "G3SG1 | Scavenger",
"conservative_value": 4.41,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Danger Zone Collection",
"market_hash_name": "G3SG1 | Scavenger (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:07:39.045884Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-aa544d78f97f.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.03497,
"output_skin_id": "skin-21f65eaf09eb",
"realistic_value": 6.83,
"optimistic_value": 6.83,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Signal",
"conservative_value": 6.81,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Danger Zone Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Signal (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:04:59.774583Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-21f65eaf09eb.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.062946,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5bd6cfc7249e",
"realistic_value": 17.758,
"optimistic_value": 17.66,
"output_full_name": "MAC-10 | Pipe Down",
"conservative_value": 17.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Danger Zone Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-05T09:19:04.837193Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5bd6cfc7249e.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.027976,
"output_skin_id": "skin-f0ba15d1b486",
"realistic_value": 5.047999999999999,
"optimistic_value": 5.02,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Nevermore",
"conservative_value": 5,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Danger Zone Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Nevermore (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:20:21.673794Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-f0ba15d1b486.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.18,
"output_float": 0.03497,
"output_skin_id": "skin-9e44f13c59da",
"realistic_value": 6.7,
"optimistic_value": 6.7,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Flashback",
"conservative_value": 6.58,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Danger Zone Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Flashback (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T05:06:53.655042Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-9e44f13c59da.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.1117556,
"output_skin_id": "skin-665b5d16532c",
"realistic_value": 135.4365,
"optimistic_value": 127.6,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT",
"conservative_value": 116.29,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:07:25.110528Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-665b5d16532c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.06994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d7d145b204a5",
"realistic_value": 701.5105,
"optimistic_value": 657.4,
"output_full_name": "USP-S | Road Rash",
"conservative_value": 490.79,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Overpass Collection",
"market_hash_name": "USP-S | Road Rash (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:44:32.262681Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d7d145b204a5.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_cfa170c79d0858765760b9d1",
"input_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.54,
"skin_id": "skin-dd5985c30bd8",
"listing_id": "523123940969085658",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Danger Close (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Danger Close",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd5985c30bd8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:21.844280Z"
},
{
"price": 0.75,
"skin_id": "skin-dd5985c30bd8",
"listing_id": "648097416148338716",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Danger Close (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Danger Close",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd5985c30bd8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:21.844280Z"
},
{
"price": 0.88,
"skin_id": "skin-dd5985c30bd8",
"listing_id": "512989991898895943",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Danger Close (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Danger Close",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-dd5985c30bd8.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:10:21.844280Z"
},
{
"price": 1.66,
"skin_id": "skin-3a61ea6e759f",
"listing_id": "523123722381452026",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Wood Fired",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3a61ea6e759f.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:17:24.348448Z"
},
{
"price": 1.85,
"skin_id": "skin-53d8377fc006",
"listing_id": "497228190141842969",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Modest Threat (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Modest Threat",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53d8377fc006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:04:34.572563Z"
},
{
"price": 2.69,
"skin_id": "skin-53d8377fc006",
"listing_id": "641342016853157875",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Modest Threat (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Modest Threat",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53d8377fc006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:04:34.572563Z"
},
{
"price": 2.7,
"skin_id": "skin-53d8377fc006",
"listing_id": "632333476684363561",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Modest Threat (Factory New)",
"name": "MP9 | Modest Threat",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-53d8377fc006.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:04:34.572563Z"
},
{
"price": 3.33,
"skin_id": "skin-d85d77873f80",
"listing_id": "494976390476397750",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Black Sand",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d85d77873f80.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:13:57.402209Z"
},
{
"price": 4.19,
"skin_id": "skin-d85d77873f80",
"listing_id": "527627435180145932",
"collection_id": "collection-set-community-21",
"market_hash_name": "Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Factory New)",
"name": "Sawed-Off | Black Sand",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d85d77873f80.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:13:57.402209Z"
},
{
"price": 19.39,
"skin_id": "skin-3a57219a9579",
"listing_id": "496101493258480463",
"collection_id": "collection-set-overpass",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "XM1014 | VariCamo Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-3a57219a9579.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T15:00:05.641429Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Restricted",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Mil-Spec Grade|Restricted|normal|10|collection-set-community-21:9+collection-set-overpass:1"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Danger Zone Collection ×7+The Overpass Collection ×3 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 15.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 15.0% $135.44 Pipe Down 14.0% $17.76 Signal 14.0% $6.83 Flashback 14.0% $6.70 Nevermore 14.0% $5.04 | $701.51 +595.9% | $131.25 +30.2% | 30.0% | +237.2% | $100.80 | — |
The Danger Zone Collection ×6+The Overpass Collection ×4 Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted Factory New | Road Rash 20.0% $701.51 Pink DDPAT 20.0% $135.44 Pipe Down 12.0% $17.76 Signal 12.0% $6.83 Flashback 12.0% $6.70 Nevermore 12.0% $5.05 | $701.51 +383.1% | $172.28 +18.6% | 20.0% | +181.0% | $145.22 | — |
Same combination, different rarity
Best-ROI contract for each rarity tier using the same collection pairing.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Danger Zone Collection ×8+The Overpass Collection ×2 Restricted → Classified Factory New | Master Piece  20.0% $1,330.91 Phosphor  26.7% $30.93 Mecha Industries  26.7% $25.47 Momentum  26.7% $20.75 | $1,330.91 +481.9% | $286.76 +25.4% | 20.0% | +228.3% | $228.71 | — |