The Inferno Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Gunsmoke
2x $4.60
Basket Halftone
2x $0.28
Citric Acid
3x $0.32
Steel Work
3x $0.65
↓
Possible Outputs
Brass
10.0% $181.74
Anodized Navy
10.0% $35.31
Coral Bloom
13.3% $4.96
Red Tide
13.3% $3.32
Arsenic Spill
13.3% $2.32
Blush Pour
13.3% $2.11
Max Win
$181.74 (+925.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$23.87 (+34.7%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+302.0%
Cost
$17.72
Age —
Financials
ASK-ONLY EDGETotal Cost $17.72
Ask Price EV $23.87 (+34.7%)
Bid Price EV $17.47 (-1.4%)
Ask Profit $6.15 (+34.7%)
Bid Profit $-0.25 (-1.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $6.40 (+36.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$6.15
Bid Slippage Buffer -$0.25
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $181.74 (+925.6%)
Worst Case $1.77 (-90.0%)
Volatility +302.0%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$90.81
Avg Loss -$15.01
Bottom 5% Outcome $1.77 (-90.0%)
Std Dev $53.52
Avg Norm Float 0.0689
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 5m
Oldest Output Price 139h 5m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Tight
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Moonshot · Strong Positive · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Field-Tested
$4.60 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Minimal Wear
$7.37 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$0.32 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Factory New
$0.65 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$1.19 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Factory New
$1.33 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Factory New
$1.35 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 40M 55S //TOTAL COST $17.72 //ASK PRICE EV $23.87 //BID PRICE EV $17.47 //ASK PROFIT $6.15 (+34.7%) //BID PROFIT $-0.25 (-1.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $181.74 //VOLATILITY +302.0% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID
10.0%
$181.74
+$164.02
+925.6%
$120.00
+$102.28
+577.2%
$61.74
34.0%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$35.31
+$17.59
+99.3%
$33.55
+$15.83
+89.3%
$1.76
5.0%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$4.96
-$12.76
-72.0%
$4.92
-$12.80
-72.2%
$0.04
0.8%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$3.32
-$14.40
-81.3%
$3.27
-$14.45
-81.5%
$0.05
1.4%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$2.32
-$15.40
-86.9%
$2.09
-$15.63
-88.2%
$0.23
9.9%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$2.11
-$15.61
-88.1%
$2.09
-$15.63
-88.2%
$0.02
1.1%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$1.78
-$15.94
-89.9%
$1.77
-$15.95
-90.0%
$0.01
0.8%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$1.77
-$15.95
-90.0%
$1.75
-$15.97
-90.1%
$0.02
1.3%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.03459515212,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 2.32,
"optimistic_value": 2.32,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:19.438423Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.051892693719999994,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 4.961,
"optimistic_value": 4.94,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 4.92,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T15:33:54.664938Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.03446,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 1.7735,
"optimistic_value": 1.77,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 1.75,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:21.115705Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.04135199999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 1.7835,
"optimistic_value": 1.78,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 1.77,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:03:02.319536Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.05169,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 3.317,
"optimistic_value": 3.31,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 3.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:46:41.567696Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.04675746452,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 2.1135,
"optimistic_value": 2.11,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 2.09,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:52:17.690125Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0055136,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc4aeda27ca",
"realistic_value": 35.3115,
"optimistic_value": 35,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 33.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:08.805854Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc4aeda27ca.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.06892,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62fc4feb5c7c",
"realistic_value": 181.7415,
"optimistic_value": 150.91,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brass",
"conservative_value": 120,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brass (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:59:58.072873Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62fc4feb5c7c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_cdba174755ed3e2f244bcfc2",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 4.6,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "524249529996069051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:20.599366Z"
},
{
"price": 7.37,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "524248990847644659",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:09.878921Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "529879287550634112",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:06:32.946087Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "519746188257916964",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:06:32.946087Z"
},
{
"price": 0.32,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "510738989039892790",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:10:26.204708Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "492724424907681777",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:10:26.204708Z"
},
{
"price": 0.65,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "503983589618643007",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:05.799041Z"
},
{
"price": 1.19,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "496101493267636415",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:10:26.204708Z"
},
{
"price": 1.33,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "648097416171584456",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:05.799041Z"
},
{
"price": 1.35,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "510738192173825854",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Factory New)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:05.799041Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-inferno:2+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Inferno Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 20.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 20.0% $35.31 Coral Bloom 10.0% $4.96 Red Tide 10.0% $3.32 Arsenic Spill 10.0% $2.32 Blush Pour 10.0% $2.12 | $181.74 +427.1% | $45.04 +30.6% | 40.0% | +193.6% | $34.48 | — |
The Inferno Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 5.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 5.0% $35.31 Coral Bloom 15.0% $4.96 Red Tide 15.0% $3.32 Arsenic Spill 15.0% $2.32 Blush Pour 15.0% $2.11 | $181.74 +1600.1% | $13.29 +24.3% | 10.0% | +362.9% | $10.69 | — |
The Inferno Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 25.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 25.0% $35.31 Coral Bloom 8.3% $4.96 Red Tide 8.3% $3.32 Arsenic Spill 8.3% $2.32 Blush Pour 8.3% $2.11 | $181.74 +283.8% | $55.62 +17.5% | 25.0% | +149.3% | $47.35 | — |