The Inferno Collection ×2+The Radiant Collection ×8
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Gunsmoke
2x $2.96
Basket Halftone
3x $0.12
Steel Work
2x $0.13
Citric Acid
1x $0.31
Sedimentary
1x $0.34
Grey Ghost
1x $0.39
↓
Possible Outputs
Brass
10.0% $40.55
Anodized Navy
10.0% $35.31
Coral Bloom
13.3% $1.36
Red Tide
13.3% $1.04
Arsenic Spill
13.3% $1.01
Blush Pour
13.3% $0.89
Max Win
$40.55 (+379.9%)
EV (ROI %)
$8.37 (-1.0%)
Win %
20.0%
Volatility
+175.5%
Cost
$8.45
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $8.45
Ask Price EV $8.37 (-1.0%)
Bid Price EV $6.92 (-18.1%)
Ask Profit $-0.08 (-1.0%)
Bid Profit $-1.53 (-18.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $1.44 (+17.1%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$0.08
Bid Slippage Buffer -$1.53
Risk
Win Probability 20.0%
Loss Probability 80.0%
Best Case $40.55 (+379.9%)
Worst Case $0.79 (-90.7%)
Volatility +175.5%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 80.0%
Avg Win +$29.48
Avg Loss -$7.47
Bottom 5% Outcome $0.79 (-90.7%)
Std Dev $14.83
Avg Norm Float 0.1499
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 23m
Oldest Output Price 139h 59m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Well-Worn
$2.96 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Gunsmoke
—
Field-Tested
$3.49 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Minimal Wear
$0.12 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.13 Float: HIDDEN
M4A4 | Steel Work
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.28 Float: HIDDEN
SG 553 | Basket Halftone
—
Factory New
$0.29 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Citric Acid
—
Factory New
$0.31 Float: HIDDEN
P250 | Sedimentary
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
FAMAS | Grey Ghost
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 40M 03S //TOTAL COST $8.45 //ASK PRICE EV $8.37 //BID PRICE EV $6.92 //ASK PROFIT $-0.08 (-1.0%) //BID PROFIT $-1.53 (-18.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 20.0% //BEST CASE $40.55 //VOLATILITY +175.5% //
Possible Outputs · 8
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN THIN BID EDGE FLOAT
10.0%
$40.55
+$32.10
+379.9%
$28.61
+$20.16
+238.6%
$11.94
29.5%
—
BIG WIN
10.0%
$35.31
+$26.86
+317.9%
$33.55
+$25.10
+297.0%
$1.76
5.0%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$1.36
-$7.09
-84.0%
$1.15
-$7.30
-86.4%
$0.21
15.2%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$1.04
-$7.41
-87.7%
$1.01
-$7.44
-88.0%
$0.03
2.6%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$1.01
-$7.44
-88.1%
$0.89
-$7.56
-89.5%
$0.11
11.4%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$0.89
-$7.56
-89.5%
$0.82
-$7.63
-90.3%
$0.07
7.7%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$0.79
-$7.66
-90.6%
$0.70
-$7.75
-91.7%
$0.09
11.4%
—
NUKE
13.3%
$0.79
-$7.66
-90.7%
$0.74
-$7.71
-91.2%
$0.05
6.1%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-inferno|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.07524897351,
"output_skin_id": "skin-bc79778fcc59",
"realistic_value": 1.005,
"optimistic_value": 0.97,
"output_full_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill",
"conservative_value": 0.89,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "AWP | Arsenic Spill (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:27.049249Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-bc79778fcc59.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.11287338530999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-79039995c554",
"realistic_value": 1.3555,
"optimistic_value": 1.31,
"output_full_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom",
"conservative_value": 1.15,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-03T06:59:19.058336Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-79039995c554.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.074955,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d474744b61b7",
"realistic_value": 0.7905,
"optimistic_value": 0.78,
"output_full_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex",
"conservative_value": 0.7,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:28:14.906937Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d474744b61b7.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.08994599999999998,
"output_skin_id": "skin-5254ad7ed93d",
"realistic_value": 0.788,
"optimistic_value": 0.76,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Shredded",
"conservative_value": 0.74,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Shredded (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:54:02.937915Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-5254ad7ed93d.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.11243249999999999,
"output_skin_id": "skin-1244c7faf3ea",
"realistic_value": 1.037,
"optimistic_value": 1.03,
"output_full_name": "P250 | Red Tide",
"conservative_value": 1.01,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Red Tide (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:19.661860Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1244c7faf3ea.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.13333333333333333,
"output_float": 0.10170359121,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0f8b4882d7c6",
"realistic_value": 0.8885,
"optimistic_value": 0.85,
"output_full_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour",
"conservative_value": 0.82,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Radiant Collection",
"market_hash_name": "SSG 08 | Blush Pour (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:45:24.093885Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0f8b4882d7c6.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.0119928,
"output_skin_id": "skin-ddc4aeda27ca",
"realistic_value": 35.3115,
"optimistic_value": 35,
"output_full_name": "Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy",
"conservative_value": 33.55,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Anodized Navy (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:06:08.805854Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ddc4aeda27ca.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.1,
"output_float": 0.14991,
"output_skin_id": "skin-62fc4feb5c7c",
"realistic_value": 40.553,
"optimistic_value": 38.32,
"output_full_name": "Tec-9 | Brass",
"conservative_value": 28.61,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"collection_name": "The Inferno Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Brass (Minimal Wear)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-02T04:59:52.450752Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-62fc4feb5c7c.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_cdba174755ed3e2f244bcfc2",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 2.96,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "523123835627218738",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Well-Worn)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Well-Worn",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:46.062159Z"
},
{
"price": 3.49,
"skin_id": "skin-8d4e3d97f75d",
"listing_id": "517494222854307622",
"collection_id": "collection-set-inferno",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Gunsmoke (Field-Tested)",
"name": "P250 | Gunsmoke",
"wear_name": "Field-Tested",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8d4e3d97f75d.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:11.909713Z"
},
{
"price": 0.12,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "636838345232107636",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:38.805022Z"
},
{
"price": 0.13,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "524249787960621051",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:46:43.900967Z"
},
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-07d3aad223e4",
"listing_id": "518620288313212132",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "M4A4 | Steel Work (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "M4A4 | Steel Work",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-07d3aad223e4.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:46:43.900967Z"
},
{
"price": 0.28,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "529879287550634112",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:19.669419Z"
},
{
"price": 0.29,
"skin_id": "skin-cee47ac22903",
"listing_id": "519746188257916964",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone (Factory New)",
"name": "SG 553 | Basket Halftone",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-cee47ac22903.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:19.669419Z"
},
{
"price": 0.31,
"skin_id": "skin-91e671371a10",
"listing_id": "511864888984769697",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Citric Acid",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-91e671371a10.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:57.741687Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-7efe4d3e7779",
"listing_id": "519746188258260332",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "P250 | Sedimentary (Factory New)",
"name": "P250 | Sedimentary",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-7efe4d3e7779.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:51:11.599083Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-1a08f20b0116",
"listing_id": "507361123689186349",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-warm",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost (Factory New)",
"name": "FAMAS | Grey Ghost",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-1a08f20b0116.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:42:04.752496Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-inferno:2+collection-set-timed-drops-warm:8"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Inferno Collection ×4+The Radiant Collection ×6 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 20.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 20.0% $35.31 Coral Bloom 10.0% $4.96 Red Tide 10.0% $3.32 Arsenic Spill 10.0% $2.32 Blush Pour 10.0% $2.11 | $181.74 +427.1% | $45.04 +30.6% | 40.0% | +193.6% | $34.48 | — |
The Inferno Collection ×1+The Radiant Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 5.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 5.0% $35.31 Coral Bloom 15.0% $4.96 Red Tide 15.0% $3.32 Arsenic Spill 15.0% $2.31 Blush Pour 15.0% $2.11 | $181.74 +1587.5% | $13.29 +23.4% | 10.0% | +360.2% | $10.77 | — |
The Inferno Collection ×5+The Radiant Collection ×5 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New | Brass 25.0% $181.74 Anodized Navy 25.0% $35.31 Coral Bloom 8.3% $4.96 Red Tide 8.3% $3.32 Arsenic Spill 8.3% $2.32 Blush Pour 8.3% $2.11 | $181.74 +283.8% | $55.62 +17.5% | 25.0% | +149.3% | $47.35 | — |