The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade MW 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear
Inputs
Robin's Egg
2x $0.14
Rose Nacre
2x $0.17
Electric Blue
3x $0.20
Turquoise Pour
1x $0.38
Picnic
1x $0.18
Banana Leaf
1x $0.34
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
5.0% $6.21
Yeti Camo
16.0% $4.46
Sky Mandala
5.0% $3.51
Mint Fan
16.0% $3.36
Cobalt Paisley
16.0% $2.65
Royal Baroque
16.0% $2.64
Max Win
$6.21 (+150.4%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.17 (+27.7%)
Win %
74.0%
Volatility
+41.4%
Cost
$2.48
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $2.48
Ask Price EV $3.17 (+27.7%)
Bid Price EV $3.11 (+25.4%)
Ask Profit $0.69 (+27.7%)
Bid Profit $0.63 (+25.4%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.06 (+2.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer +$0.69
Bid Slippage Buffer +$0.63
Risk
Win Probability 74.0%
Loss Probability 26.0%
Best Case $6.21 (+150.4%)
Worst Case $2.20 (-11.3%)
Volatility +41.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 0.00%
Avg Win +$1.01
Avg Loss -$0.24
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.20 (-11.3%)
Std Dev $1.03
Avg Norm Float 0.0997
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 25m
Oldest Output Price 6h 43m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Edge
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // High-EV Grinder · Premium Signal · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.14 Float: HIDDEN
Galil AR | Robin's Egg
—
Minimal Wear
$0.15 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Minimal Wear
$0.17 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.20 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.24 Float: HIDDEN
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.25 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Factory New
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Minimal Wear
$0.18 Float: HIDDEN
Tec-9 | Banana Leaf
—
Factory New
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 42M 32S //TOTAL COST $2.48 //ASK PRICE EV $3.17 //BID PRICE EV $3.11 //ASK PROFIT $0.69 (+27.7%) //BID PROFIT $0.63 (+25.4%) //WIN PROBABILITY 74.0% //BEST CASE $6.21 //VOLATILITY +41.4% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
BIG WIN
5.0%
$6.21
+$3.73
+150.4%
$6.18
+$3.70
+149.2%
$0.03
0.5%
—
BIG WIN EDGE FLOAT
16.0%
$4.46
+$1.98
+79.9%
$4.43
+$1.95
+78.6%
$0.03
0.7%
—
WIN EDGE FLOAT
5.0%
$3.51
+$1.03
+41.4%
$3.45
+$0.97
+39.1%
$0.06
1.6%
—
WIN
16.0%
$3.36
+$0.88
+35.4%
$3.34
+$0.86
+34.7%
$0.02
0.5%
—
SMALL WIN
16.0%
$2.65
+$0.17
+6.9%
$2.64
+$0.16
+6.5%
$0.01
0.4%
—
SMALL WIN
16.0%
$2.64
+$0.16
+6.5%
$2.62
+$0.14
+5.6%
$0.02
0.8%
—
LOSS
5.0%
$2.33
-$0.15
-5.9%
$2.27
-$0.21
-8.5%
$0.06
2.7%
—
LOSS EDGE FLOAT
5.0%
$2.28
-$0.20
-8.0%
$2.25
-$0.23
-9.3%
$0.03
1.3%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$2.20
-$0.28
-11.3%
$1.99
-$0.49
-19.8%
$0.21
9.5%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.059837999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.357,
"optimistic_value": 3.35,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:11:13.766355Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.069811,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.461,
"optimistic_value": 4.44,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:42:10.424256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.06482450000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.65,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:19.246119Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.059837999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:10:28.043747Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.059837999999999995,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.2,
"optimistic_value": 2.2,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:19.012953Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.06482450000000001,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.21,
"optimistic_value": 6.21,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:29:27.368062Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.069811,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.507,
"optimistic_value": 3.5,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:08.862689Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.069811,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.2805,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:12.136170Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.0658218,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.3339999999999996,
"optimistic_value": 2.32,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.27,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:08:02.096327Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_cad0bf2950ea62a8a1d46e61",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.14,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "502857637417906948",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:58:01.215662Z"
},
{
"price": 0.15,
"skin_id": "skin-69fcaf121180",
"listing_id": "525375635593436155",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Galil AR | Robin's Egg",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-69fcaf121180.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:58:01.215662Z"
},
{
"price": 0.17,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "516368488724892626",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:57:54.256594Z"
},
{
"price": 0.2,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "499479989895797449",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:54:31.831693Z"
},
{
"price": 0.24,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "654852743754232591",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:54:31.831693Z"
},
{
"price": 0.25,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "794463791558467223",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:54:31.831693Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "508487136897429290",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:48:36.003942Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "494976390476374350",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:02:53.459242Z"
},
{
"price": 0.18,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "492724590626103273",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:54:25.058856Z"
},
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-25af68e7c19c",
"listing_id": "501731789729834873",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)",
"name": "Tec-9 | Banana Leaf",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-25af68e7c19c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T22:48:21.471204Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Field-Tested | Fraise Crane 22.5% $2.60 Yeti Camo 2.0% $1.68 Sky Mandala 22.5% $1.67 Reef Grief 2.0% $1.13 Cobalt Paisley 2.0% $1.11 Earth Mandala 22.5% $1.10 | $2.60 +117.0% | $1.57 +30.9% | 47.0% | +45.6% | $1.20 | — |