The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade FN 10 items
Contract
Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Factory New
Inputs
Electric Blue
1x $0.34
Gum Wall Camo
2x $0.36
Turquoise Pour
3x $0.38
Rose Nacre
1x $0.43
Ocean Topo
1x $1.05
Picnic
2x $0.40
↓
Possible Outputs
Fraise Crane
5.0% $6.21
Yeti Camo
16.0% $4.46
Sky Mandala
5.0% $3.50
Mint Fan
16.0% $3.37
Cobalt Paisley
16.0% $2.66
Royal Baroque
16.0% $2.64
Max Win
$6.21 (+17.6%)
EV (ROI %)
$3.17 (-39.9%)
Win %
5.0%
Volatility
+19.4%
Cost
$5.28
Age —
Financials
Total Cost $5.28
Ask Price EV $3.17 (-39.9%)
Bid Price EV $3.11 (-41.1%)
Ask Profit $-2.11 (-39.9%)
Bid Profit $-2.17 (-41.1%)
See more
Liquidity Gap $0.06 (+1.2%)
Ask Slippage Buffer -$2.11
Bid Slippage Buffer -$2.17
Risk
Win Probability 5.0%
Loss Probability 95.0%
Best Case $6.21 (+17.6%)
Worst Case $2.22 (-57.9%)
Volatility +19.4%
See more
Major Loss Prob (≤−25%) 79.0%
Avg Win +$0.93
Avg Loss -$2.27
Bottom 5% Outcome $2.22 (-57.9%)
Std Dev $1.02
Avg Norm Float 0.0695
P(output) Sum 1.0000
Execution ▸ ▾
Price Freshness Old
Oldest Input Price 20m
Oldest Output Price 7h 44m
Fill Confidence Low
Input Availability 10 / 10
Float Safety Safe
Price History
ROI & Win Rate
TRADEUPS.ANALYST // AI Report // Negative Setup · Weak · Validation Recommended
SYSTEM // Connecting to Cloudflare AI worker...
Chosen Inputs · 10 items
Zeus x27 | Electric Blue
—
Minimal Wear
$0.34 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.36 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.38 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.39 Float: HIDDEN
Nova | Turquoise Pour
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre
—
Factory New
$0.43 Float: HIDDEN
XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo
—
Factory New
$0.92 Float: HIDDEN
Glock-18 | Ocean Topo
—
Factory New
$1.05 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.40 Float: HIDDEN
MP5-SD | Picnic
—
Factory New
$0.61 Float: HIDDEN
OUTPUT SPACE RESOLVED // CONTRACT AGE 48M 13S //TOTAL COST $5.28 //ASK PRICE EV $3.17 //BID PRICE EV $3.11 //ASK PROFIT $-2.11 (-39.9%) //BID PROFIT $-2.17 (-41.1%) //WIN PROBABILITY 5.0% //BEST CASE $6.21 //VOLATILITY +19.4% //
Possible Outputs · 9
Skin
Tags
Chance
Ask
Bid
Spread
Updated
WIN
5.0%
$6.21
+$0.93
+17.6%
$6.18
+$0.90
+17.0%
$0.03
0.5%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$4.46
-$0.82
-15.5%
$4.43
-$0.85
-16.1%
$0.03
0.7%
—
LOSS
5.0%
$3.50
-$1.78
-33.6%
$3.45
-$1.83
-34.7%
$0.05
1.5%
—
LOSS
16.0%
$3.37
-$1.91
-36.1%
$3.34
-$1.94
-36.7%
$0.03
1.0%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.66
-$2.62
-49.7%
$2.64
-$2.64
-50.0%
$0.02
0.6%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.64
-$2.64
-50.0%
$2.62
-$2.66
-50.4%
$0.02
0.8%
—
NUKE
5.0%
$2.33
-$2.95
-55.9%
$2.23
-$3.05
-57.8%
$0.10
4.2%
—
NUKE
5.0%
$2.27
-$3.01
-57.0%
$2.25
-$3.03
-57.4%
$0.02
0.9%
—
NUKE
16.0%
$2.22
-$3.06
-57.9%
$1.99
-$3.29
-62.3%
$0.23
10.4%
—
Monte Carlo Simulator
Session
Spins 0
Win Rate —
Spent $0.00
Net P&L
Ask: +$0.00
Bid: +$0.00
Avg Return
Ask: —
Bid: —
Total Return
Ask: $0.00
Bid: $0.00
Best Win
Ask: —
Bid: —
Latest Result
No spins recorded yet.
Cumulative P&L
Ask Bid
Run a spin to plot Ask and Bid cumulative
P&L.
Raw payload (JSON)
{
"parts": [
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 8,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool"
},
{
"bucket_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant|Industrial Grade|normal",
"item_count": 2,
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant"
}
],
"outcomes": [
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.041724000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-96bbc2859318",
"realistic_value": 3.3735,
"optimistic_value": 3.37,
"output_full_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan",
"conservative_value": 3.34,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:03:49.785935Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-96bbc2859318.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.048678,
"output_skin_id": "skin-97defdf0ce4c",
"realistic_value": 4.461,
"optimistic_value": 4.44,
"output_full_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo",
"conservative_value": 4.43,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "FAMAS | Yeti Camo (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T19:42:10.424256Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-97defdf0ce4c.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.045201000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e400418cedad",
"realistic_value": 2.657,
"optimistic_value": 2.65,
"output_full_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley",
"conservative_value": 2.64,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "MP9 | Cobalt Paisley (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:19.756353Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e400418cedad.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.041724000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-e010a1443ce8",
"realistic_value": 2.64,
"optimistic_value": 2.64,
"output_full_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque",
"conservative_value": 2.62,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P2000 | Royal Baroque (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:27.844587Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-e010a1443ce8.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.16,
"output_float": 0.041724000000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-d58c4622251a",
"realistic_value": 2.221,
"optimistic_value": 2.2,
"output_full_name": "P90 | Reef Grief",
"conservative_value": 1.99,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Ascent Collection",
"market_hash_name": "P90 | Reef Grief (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:19.346295Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d58c4622251a.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.045201000000000005,
"output_skin_id": "skin-6f23920b8406",
"realistic_value": 6.21,
"optimistic_value": 6.21,
"output_full_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane",
"conservative_value": 6.18,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Five-SeveN | Fraise Crane (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T16:29:27.368062Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-6f23920b8406.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.048678,
"output_skin_id": "skin-49296f9e5232",
"realistic_value": 3.5035,
"optimistic_value": 3.5,
"output_full_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala",
"conservative_value": 3.45,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:58.289082Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-49296f9e5232.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.048678,
"output_skin_id": "skin-37ac474a54e4",
"realistic_value": 2.27,
"optimistic_value": 2.27,
"output_full_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded",
"conservative_value": 2.25,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:59:07.761569Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-37ac474a54e4.png"
},
{
"probability": 0.05,
"output_float": 0.045896400000000004,
"output_skin_id": "skin-0843472a9098",
"realistic_value": 2.3275,
"optimistic_value": 2.31,
"output_full_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala",
"conservative_value": 2.23,
"source_collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"collection_name": "The Harlequin Collection",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Earth Mandala (Factory New)",
"price_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:58:52.986960Z",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-0843472a9098.png"
}
],
"family_id": "fam_cad0bf2950ea62a8a1d46e61",
"input_rarity": "Industrial Grade",
"chosen_inputs": [
{
"price": 0.34,
"skin_id": "skin-55264b2a150c",
"listing_id": "497228024527615625",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)",
"name": "Zeus x27 | Electric Blue",
"wear_name": "Minimal Wear",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-55264b2a150c.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:12:05.023475Z"
},
{
"price": 0.36,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "496102290328809707",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:29.067325Z"
},
{
"price": 0.38,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "508487136897429290",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:30.285017Z"
},
{
"price": 0.39,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "515242536109828297",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:30.285017Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-d219c8f3fe3b",
"listing_id": "529878490365643356",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour (Factory New)",
"name": "Nova | Turquoise Pour",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-d219c8f3fe3b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:30.285017Z"
},
{
"price": 0.43,
"skin_id": "skin-b6116401828b",
"listing_id": "494976390476374350",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre (Factory New)",
"name": "Dual Berettas | Rose Nacre",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-b6116401828b.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-07T23:53:44.446260Z"
},
{
"price": 0.92,
"skin_id": "skin-8f8277af6b54",
"listing_id": "525375522202630771",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo (Factory New)",
"name": "XM1014 | Gum Wall Camo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-8f8277af6b54.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:29.067325Z"
},
{
"price": 1.05,
"skin_id": "skin-ad93599cbfb9",
"listing_id": "622201718380639200",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-cool",
"market_hash_name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo (Factory New)",
"name": "Glock-18 | Ocean Topo",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-ad93599cbfb9.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:04:10.636074Z"
},
{
"price": 0.4,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "505109489448518132",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:21.016901Z"
},
{
"price": 0.61,
"skin_id": "skin-105633b3f165",
"listing_id": "501731789729823857",
"collection_id": "collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant",
"market_hash_name": "MP5-SD | Picnic (Factory New)",
"name": "MP5-SD | Picnic",
"wear_name": "Factory New",
"image_url": "https://cdn.cs2signal.com/skins/skin-105633b3f165.png",
"market_fetched_at": "2026-05-08T00:01:21.016901Z"
}
],
"contract_size": 10,
"output_rarity": "Mil-Spec Grade",
"stattrak_mode": false,
"composition_key": "Industrial Grade|Mil-Spec Grade|normal|10|collection-set-timed-drops-cool:8+collection-set-timed-drops-exuberant:2"
}Related
Related contracts
Different wear buckets
Same contract family, other output wear ratings.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×8+The Harlequin Collection ×2 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 5.0% $6.21 Yeti Camo 16.0% $4.46 Sky Mandala 5.0% $3.50 Mint Fan 16.0% $3.37 Cobalt Paisley 16.0% $2.66 Royal Baroque 16.0% $2.64 | $6.21 +155.6% | $3.17 +30.5% | 74.0% | +37.4% | $2.43 | — |
Different splits
Same collections and rarity transition, sorted by highest ROI.
| Contract | Outputs | Max Win | EV (ROI) | Win % | Volatility | Cost | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Ascent Collection ×1+The Harlequin Collection ×9 Industrial Grade → Mil-Spec Grade Minimal Wear | Fraise Crane 22.5% $6.21 Yeti Camo 2.0% $4.46 Sky Mandala 22.5% $3.50 Mint Fan 2.0% $3.37 Cobalt Paisley 2.0% $2.66 Royal Baroque 2.0% $2.64 | $6.21 +128.3% | $3.53 +29.7% | 49.0% | +47.5% | $2.72 | — |